Ekonomie práce II - JCM014

• Anglický název: Labor Economics II
• Zajišťuje: CERGE (23-CERGE)
• Fakulta: Fakulta sociálních věd
• Platnost: od 2023
• Semestr: letní
• E-Kredity: 9
• Způsob provedení zkoušky: letní s.:
• Rozsah, examinace: letní s.:4/2, Zk [HT]
• Počet míst: neomezen / neurčen (20)
• Minimální obsazenost: neomezen
• 4EU+: ne
• Virtuální mobilita / počet míst pro virtuální mobilitu: ne
• Stav předmětu: vyučován
• Jazyk výuky: čeština
• Způsob výuky: prezenční
• Způsob výuky: prezenční
• Poznámka: předmět je možno zapsat mimo plán; povolen pro zápis po webu; při zápisu přednost, je-li ve stud. plánu
• Garant: doc. Ing. Mariola Pytliková, Ph.D.
• Vyučující: doc. Ing. Mariola Pytliková, Ph.D.
• Prerekvizity : JCM021

Anotace

Poslední úprava: Mgr. Anna Papariga (21.01.2022)

Economic conditions and our economic lives are constantly changing. During the last decades, the rise of China has fostered deindustrialization in developed countries; the financial crisis in 2008 is still prolonging and visible in unconventional monetary policy measures; and technological change fosters the skill-premium and somewhat translates into radical political movements. How can we classify these current events and how unique are these changes in a historical context?
The lecture “Quantitative Economic History” deals with the causes and determinants of the long-run evolution of socio-economic variables and brings students to the research frontier in this field. We discuss both stylized facts and empirical identification strategies for causal inference. We look at economic shocks and their respective policy measures, zoom into the specific situations in Central and Eastern Europe and ask whether economic history may help to achieve appropriate policy measures for challenges in the present day. Indeed, technological change, monetary and economic crises, waves of globalization and fertility transitions repeatedly shaped the world during the last 300 years.
The course follows two approaches to learn more about economics in general and economic history in particular. On the one hand, a long-term perspective on the evolution of socio-economic figures can help to understand changes and obstacles today. The lecture thus combines stylized facts with both recent contributions in the literature and appropriate econometric tools. On the other hand, history provides so-called quasi-experimental shocks that can be used for causal inference. Students will discuss recent research papers and will critically assess the respective empirical identification strategies. The lecture bases on a broader understanding of economics. Despite classical economic variables like GDP, inflation or population growth, we will also discuss so-called soft economic variables such as norms, culture, trust and social capital. These soft economic variables are important drivers of economic growth, cooperation and economic success.

Cíl předmětu

Poslední úprava: Mgr. Anna Papariga (21.01.2022)

The aim of this course is to bring students to the research frontier in the field of applied economic research with a special emphasis on quantitative economic history and long-run development. Students will get a broad overview of economic history based on notes provided by the instructor and a deep understanding of the recent literature in the respective fields. 

Deskriptory

Poslední úprava: Mgr. Anna Papariga (21.01.2022)

Students should become critical about empirical identification strategies and should learn how to frame and sell a story. We will mainly discuss empirical settings that apply concepts of causal inference following “Mostly Harmless Econometrics” by Angrist and Pischke (2010). The course also consists of Stata assignments in which students will challenge published papers with newly established methodological contributions in the econometric literature. At the end, students have to write their own short research proposal in the field of quantitative economic history.

Literatura

Poslední úprava: Mgr. Anna Papariga (21.01.2022)

Course material is accessible on the course webpage. Research papers that are part of the mandatory reading list are available on the course webpage as well. The chosen short presentation and referee reports will also be shared via the course (after the meeting).

Požadavky ke zkoušce

Poslední úprava: Mgr. Anna Papariga (21.01.2022)

Grading

 

The following grading scheme applies:

(i)       Short paper presentation (6 slides)                                  10 %

(notes: Student that present twice will earn 5 extra points max.)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

(ii)     Referee report (3–4 pages)                                               20 %

 

(iii)   4 Stata Assignments (5% each)                                        20 %

 

(iv)    Research Proposal

a.    Presentation and discussion of pre-results              10 %

b.    Proposal (8 pages)                                                     40 %

Sylabus

Poslední úprava: Mgr. Anna Papariga (21.01.2022)

Part A: Lectures and paper discussions/referee reports

 

The course starts with a brief overview of the long-run development of economic figures and a non-technical repetition of the concepts of causal inference. Thereafter, we chronologically discuss basic figures and facts on long-run development. The course will mix classical overview lectures (so-called “Notes”) by the instructor with discussions of seminal research papers.

For the paper discussions, we will split the class into two groups, and every student prepares one short presentation each week about one paper (starting in week #3 to week #10). We then select randomly one student to introduce the paper with his/her short presentation. This short presentation will consist of 5–6 slides only (overview, contribution to the literature, the setting, the empirical identification strategy, the main results, and maybe some robustness notes). In addition to the short presentations, each paper will be assigned to a student to write and present a “referee report”. The aim of the referee report is to be critical: Give a short overview of the paper; think about an alternative explanation/story, and criticize the empirical identification strategy of the paper (and try to suggest an alternative one). Students that prepare a referee report do not have to prepare a short presentation in that week. Further instructions will be provided in the first week of class.

The following time schedule applies:

Week #1 (Feb 15): Course overview and introduction to causal inference

 

• Overview of the course and requirements
• Overview and (pre-)assignment of discussion papers
• Stylized facts on long-run development
• Concepts of causal inference in quantitative economic history (Part I) – DiD and IV

 

Week #2 (Feb 22): Causal inference (cont.) and referee report

 

• Concepts of causal inference in QEH (Part II) – (fuzzy and spatial) RDD, SCM
• Final assignment of discussion papers (in groups) and referee report (individual)
• Notes on how to write a referee report (own example)

Example for referee reports (Paper & four reports):

(2.1a)         Ochsner, C. (2017+): “Dismantled once, diverged forever? A quasi-natural experiment of Red Army’s misdeeds in post-WWII Europe”, ifo Working Paper No. 240 (submitted version).
(2.1b)        4 JEEA Referee reports on: Ochsner, C. (2017+): “Dismantled once, diverged forever? A quasi-natural experiment of Red Army’s misdeeds in post-WWII Europe”, ifo Working Paper No. 240 (submitted version).

• Week #3 (March 01): Early Development

 

• Notes on the “pre-industrial development”: The horsemen of riches
• Emerging rich: The European marriage pattern
• Early technology adaption and economic growth
• The effects of the Protestant Revolution on development
• Students’ presentations and reports on “ancient development”

Discussion papers on “ancient development”:

(3.1)          Matranga, A. (2019): “The Ant and the Grasshopper: Seasonality and the Invention of Agriculture”, Working Paper Chapman University.

(3.2)          Dalgaard, C-J., Kaarsen, N., Olsson, O., and P. Selaya (2020): “Roman Roads to Prosperity: Persistence and Non-Persistence of Public Goods Provision”, Working Paper, University of Copenhagen.

 

Week #4 (March 08): Industrial Revolution

 

• Notes on the “Industrial Revolution”: Technology vs. factor prices
• The spread of the IR to Europe and to the rest of World
• Students’ presentations and reports on “pre-industrial development”

 

Discussion papers on “pre-industrial development”:

(4.1)     Becker, S. O., Ferrara, A., Melander, E., and L. Pascali (2020): “Wars, Taxation and Representation: Evidence from Five Centuries of German History,” Working Paper University of Warwick, Coventry.

 (4.2)    Dittmar, J. E. (2011): “Information Technology and Economic Change: The Impact of the Printing Press”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 126(3), 1133–1172.

Week #5 (March 15): Cultural Economics

• Notes on “Cultural Economics”
• The origin of cultural differences. Nature, economics, and institutions
• Students’ presentations and reports on the “Industrial Revolution”

 

Discussion papers on the “Industrial Revolution”:

(5.1)     Heblich, S., and A. Trew (2019): “Banking and Industrialization”, Journal of the European Economic Association 17(6), 1753–1796.

(5.2)     Hanlon, W. (2015): “Necessity is the Mother of Invention: Input Supplies and Directed Technical Change”, Econometrica 83(1), 67–100.

(5.2)     Juhász, R. (2018): “Temporary Protection and Technology Adoption: Evidence from the Napoleonic Blockade”, American Economic Review 108(11), 3339–3376.

 

Week #6 (March 22): Stata Session I and Papers on Cultural Economics

 

• Stata Session I: Assignment #1 and #2 (different concepts and robust RDD)
• Students’ presentations and reports on “Cultural Economics”

 

Discussion papers on cultural economics:

(6.1)     Ochsner, C., and F. Roesel (2019): “Mobilizing history“, CESifo Working Paper No. 6586 (revised version), CESifo Munich.

(6.2)     Drelichman, M., Vidal-Robert, J., and H.-J. Voth (2021): “The Long Run Effects of Religious Persecution: Evidence from the Spanish Inquisition,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) 118 (33).

(6.3)    Rustagi, D. (2021): “Historical Self-Governance and Norms of Cooperation,” Working Paper, University of Nottingham.

Week #7 (March 29): The Great Depression

 

• Notes on the “Great Depression”
• Stylized facts on the US and the transmission of the great depression
• Macro and micro evidence on the fast recovery in the USA
• Some hints to the GD in Europe: Golden fetters
• Students’ presentations and reports on the “Great Depression”

Discussion papers on the “Great Depression”:

(7.1)     Lee, J., and F. Mezzanotti (2017): “Bank Distress and Manufacturing: Evidence from the Great Depression”, Working Paper, Northwestern University.

(7.2)     Doerr, S., Gissler, S., Peydró, J.L., and H.-J. Voth (2020): “From Finance to Fascism”, Working Paper, University of Zurich.

Week #8 (April 5): Totalitarian regimes

 

• Notes on the “economics of totalitarian regimes”: Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union
• Success and failure of the economics of totalitarian regimes
• Students’ presentations and reports on the “political economy of totalitarian regimes”

Discussion papers on the (political) economy of totalitarian regimes:

(8.1)     Stegmann, A. (2019): “When East Meets West: Interpersonal Contact and the Demand for Democracy,” Working Paper briq Institute, Bonn.

(8.2)     Lichter, A., Löffler, M., and S. Siegloch (2021): “The Long-Term Costs of Government Surveillance: Insights from Stasi Spying in East Germany,” Journal of the European Economic Association 19(2), pp. 741–789.

Week #9 (April 12): Growth after World War II

 

• Notes on the “economic miracle” after WWII
• Economic growth in the East and West
• The relative fall back of the east after the mid-1970s
• Students’ presentations and reports on the “growth after WWII”

Discussion papers on “European economic growth after WWII”:

(9.1)     Glitz, A., and E. Meyersson (2020), “Industrial espionage and productivity,” American Economic Review 110(4), 1055–1103.

(9.2)     Bianchi, N., and M. Giorcelli (2018): “Reconstruction aid, public infrastructure, and economic development: The case of the Marshall Plan in Italy,” Working Paper, UCLA.

Week #10 (April 19): Stata Session II and Papers on Ethnic Cleansing

 

• Stata Session II: Assignment #3 and #4 (Clustering and SCM)
• Students’ presentations and reports on “Ethnic cleansing”

Discussion papers on “ethnic cleansing”:

(10.1)   Testa, P. A. (2021), “The Economic Legacy of Expulsion: Lessons from Postwar Czechoslovakia”, The Economic Journal 131, 2233–2271.

(10.2)   Becker, S. O., Grosfeld, I., Grosjean, P., Voigtländer, N., and E. Zhuravskaya (2020): “Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from post-WWII Population Transfers”, American Economic Review 110(5), 1430–1463.

(10.3)   Grossmann, J., Jurajda, S., and F. Roesel (2021): “Forced migration, staying minorities, and new societies: Evidence from post-war Czechoslovakia”, CERGE-EI Working Paper, Prague.

Week #11 (April 26): Monetary history and Students’ Proposal Presentation

 

• Notes on “Monetary History”
• From Bretton Woods to the Euro
• Students’ own research proposal presentations (22-30min each)

 

Week #12 (May 03): Students’ Proposal Presentation and Outlook/Feedback

 

• Students’ own research proposal presentation (22-30min each)
• Outlook to the general exam
• Feedback

 

 

Part B: Stata assignments

 

We will replicate well-published research papers and challenge their main findings with alternative empirical specifications. There are four Stata assignments to be done individually. The Stata assignments are distributed in lecture week #4 (Stata assignments 1 and 2) and week #8 (Stata assignments 3 and 4). Students have to submit their assignments to the TA (cc’ing the instructor) by Sunday before week #6 and week #10 respectively.

Stata Assignment #1

 

• Topic: Basic concepts of causal inference and FE vs DiD and matching techniques
• Baseline paper: Hornung, E. (2015): “Railroads and growth in Prussia”, Journal of the European Economic Association 13(4), 699–736.
• Deadline: Distributed in week #4; submitted by March 22 (Sunday evening)

 

Stata Assignment #2

 

• Topic: From RDD to RDD robust
• Baseline paper: Becker, S. O., Boeckh, K., Hainz, C., and L. Woessmann (2016): “The Empire Is Dead, Long Live the Empire! Long-Run Persistence of Trust and Corruption in the Bureaucracy,” The Economic Journal 126(590), 40–74.
• Deadline: Distributed in week #4; submitted by March 22 (Sunday evening)

 

Stata Assignment #3

 

• Topic: Spatial and arbitrary clustering
• Baseline paper: Redding, S., and D. Sturm (2008): “The Costs of Remoteness: Evidence from German Division and Reunification”, American Economic Review 98(5), 1766–1797.
• Deadline: Distributed in week #8; submitted by April 17 (Sunday evening)

 

Stata Assignment #4

 

• Topic: Challenging findings with the SCM
• Baseline paper: Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and J. Hainmueller (2015): “Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method,” American Journal of Political Science 59(2), 495–510.
• Deadline: Distributed in week #8; submitted by April 17 (Sunday evening)

 

Part C: Research proposal

 

Students have to write a research proposal based on their own ideas in the field of quantitative economic history. Proposal without any ties to history/economic history will not be accepted. The research proposal (max. 8 pages) comprises a motivation why we should care about the question, links the question to the related literature, introduces the (historical) setting, describes an appropriate empirical identification strategy, highlights potential shortcomings and how these shortcomings might be addressed and discusses potential data sources. Students also prepare a short presentation (10-12 minutes) on their research proposal (work in progress at this time) and lead a discussion about it (10-15min). All proposal presentations will be hold at the end of the term. The submission date of the finalized proposal is May 15, 2022.