Tento kurz se zaměřuje na moderní makroekonomii pro malé otevřené ekonomiky s důrazem na témata spojená s mezinárodními finančními toky. Zabývá se přínosy a riziky liberalizace těchto mezinárodních finančních toků pro malé otevřené ekonomiky. Začíná studiem mezičasového obchodu mezi ekonomikami a determinací rovnovážného salda běžného účtu za předpokladu dokonalých finančních trhů. Následně jsou zkoumány problémy náhlého zamrznutí (sudden stops) mezinárodních finančních toků či dokonce obratu v jejich směru. Jedna z přednášek se věnuje vlivu fiskální politiky na běžný účet platební bilance (tzv. "twin deficit") a možné interpretaci tzv. Felsteinovy-Horiokovy hádanky. Je diskutován neoklasický model dlouhodobého růstu pro malé otevřené ekonomiky s úvěrovými omezeními. Studována je rovněž dlouhodobá cenová konvergence s využitím Balassova-Samuelsonova modelu. Pozornost je věnována i nedokonalostem finančního systému a jejich roli pro mezinárodní alokaci kapitálu. Druhý blok přednášek začíná studiem měnových krizí, vhodné volby kurzového režimu a teorie optimálních měnových zón. Následně se zaměřuje na cílování inflace v malé otevřené ekonomice, reakci centrální banky na kurzové šoky, použití devizových intervencí v režimu cílování inflace apod. Kurz předpokládá dobrou znalost makroekonomie uzavřené ekonomiky na úrovni magisterského studia.
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
This course is focused on advanced international macroeconomics with an emphasis on the issues associated with international financial flows. It contrasts benefits and potential challenges associated with these international financial flows. It starts with studying the intertemporal trade between economies and equilibrium current account determination with perfect financial markets. The implications of sudden stops in international lending or capital flight are then discussed. One lecture deals with the twin-deficit phenomenon and interpretation of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. The neo-classical growth model for a small open economy facing borrowing constraints is derived. The price level convergence is also studied using the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Attention is also paid to financial imperfections and their impact on international capital allocation. The second block of lectures starts with discussing the exchange rate regime choice, currency crises and the optimum currency area theory. The focus is then put on the inflation-targeting regime in small open economies, reaction of central banks to foreign shocks, discussion of exchange rate management under the inflation targeting, etc. The course assumes a prior good knowledge of closed-economy macroeconomics at the level of master studies.
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
Cíl předmětu -
Tento předmět navazuje na pokročilý kurz makroekonomie a zaměřuje se na otázky specifické pro malé otevřené ekonomiky, včetně role nedokonalostí mezinárodních finančních trhů. Jeho absolvování umožňuje orientovat se v otázkách determinace běžného účtu platební bilance, dlouhodobého růstu, kurzových režimů i stablizační politiky pro tento typ ekonomik.
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
This course builds on the advanced macroeconomics, focusing on the issues relevant for small open economies, including the challenges related to international financial markets imperfections. It leads to orientation in the current account determination, long-term growth issues, exchange rate regime choice and stabilisation policy issues for these economies.
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
Literatura -
Hlavní učebnice:
• Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K.: Foundations of International Macroeconomics. London: MIT Press, 1996.
Doplňkové učebnice:
• Romer, D., 1996, Advanced Macroeconomics. New York: McGraw-Hill.
• Barro, R., Sala-i-Martin, X, 1995, Economic Growth. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Doporučená četba k jednotlivým tématům:
• Cashin, Paul, Kent, J. Christopher, 2003, "The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks: Persistence Matters ," IMF WP 03143, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp03143.pdf
• Balassa, B., 1964, "The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, 72: 584-96.
• Samuelson, P.A., 1964, "Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems," Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (May): 145-154.
• Čihák, M. and Holub, T., 2005, "Price Convergence in EU-accession Countries," Économie Internationale, No. 102, pp. 59-82.
• Holub, T. and Čihák, M., 2003, "Price Convergence: What Can the Balassa-Samuelson Model Tell Us?" Working Paper, no. 8/2003, Prague: Czech National Bank (http://www.cnb.cz/en/pdf/wp8-2003.pdf).
• Obstfeld, M., 1996, "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," European Economic Review, vol. 40 (April), pp. 1037-48.
• Chang, R., Velasco, A., 1998, "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," NBER Working Paper Series, no. 6606 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w6606).
• Krugman, P., 1999, "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, 6, 459-472.
• Linhart, C. M.; Rogoff, K. S. (2008): Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison. NBER Working Paper No. 13761.
• Fischer, S., 2001, "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?" A Lecture Delivered at the Meetings of the American Economic Association, New Orleans, January 6 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2001/010601a.pdf).
• Mundell, R., 1961, "A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," American Economic Review, vol. 51, pp. 657-664.
• McKinnon, R.I., 1963, "Optimum Currency Areas," American Economic Review, vol. 53, pp. 717-725.
• Holub, T., 2003, "Importing Low Inflation via Pegged Exchange Rates, Currency Boards and Monetary Unions," ICEG European Center, Working Paper 21, February 2003.
• CNB (2023): Analyses of the Czech Republic's current economic alignment with the euro area, December, https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/monetary-policy/.galleries/strategic_documents/analyses_of_alignment_2023.pdf
• Christiano, Lawrence J., Mathias Trabandt, and Karl Walentin. 2007, November. Introducing Financial Frictions and Unemployment into a Small Open Economy Model. Working paper series 214, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
• Stiglitz, J. E., Weiss, A., 1981, "Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information".
• Kyiotaki, N., Moore, J., 1997, "Credit cycles", Journal of Political Economy, vol 105, No. 2, pp. 211 -248.
• Svensson, L. E. O, 2000, "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting". London: CEPR Discussion Paper, 1989 (October).
• Fraga, A., I. Goldfajn, and A. Minella, 2003, "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper Series, 10019 (October).
• Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho (2011): "28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics) (http://www.bepress.com/bejm/vol11/iss1/art22).
• Rose, A.K. (2014): "Surprising similarities: recent monetary regimes of small economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, 49, 5-27.
• Andersena, T.B., Malchow-Møllerb, N., Nordvigc, J. (2015): "Inflation targeting and macroeconomic performance since the Great Recession." Oxford Economic Papers, 67(3), 2015, 598-613.
• Gali J., Monacelli, T., 2005, "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy", The Review of Economic Studies, vol 72, No. 3 (July 2005), pp. 707 - 734.
• Calvo, G. A., and C. M. Reinhart. "Fear of Floating." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper, 7993, 2000.
• Bofinger, P., and T. Wollmershaeuser, 2001, "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order." London: CEPR Discussion Paper, 3064.
• Goldstein, M., 2002, "Managed Floating Plus." Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, Policy Analyses in International Economics, 66.
• Edison, H. J.1 1993, "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Literature after 1982." Princeton: Princeton University, Special Papers in International Economics, 18, 1993.
• Sarno, L., and M. P. Taylor, 2001, "Official intervention in the foreign exchange market: Is it effective and, if so, how does it work?" Journal of Economic Literature, 39 (3), 839-868.
• Holub, T., 2004, "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience." CNB IRPN, no. 1/2004.
• Geršl, A., Holub, T. Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience. Contemporary Economic Policy, 2006, vol. 24, no. 4 (October), pp. 475-491, ISSN 1074-3529.
• Disyatat, P., and G. Galati, 2005, "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: evidence from the Czech koruna." Basel, BIS Working Paper, 172, 2005.
• Égert, B. and L. Komárek, 2005, "Foreign Exchange Interventions in the Czech Republic: Did They Matter?" Prague, CNB Working Paper Series.
• Cavusoglu, N., 2010, Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey of Findings, Issues and Policy Implications. Global Economy Journal, vol. 10, iss. 4, article 3.
• Gnabo, J-Y, De Mello, J., Moccero, D., 2010, "Interdependencies between Monetary Policy and Foreign Exchange Interventions under Inflation Targeting: The Case of Brazil and the Czech Republic", International Finance, vol. 13, issue 2, pp 195 - 211.
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
Main textbook:
• Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K.: Foundations of International Macroeconomics. London: MIT Press, 1996.
Supplementary textbooks:
• Romer, D., 1996, Advanced Macroeconomics. New York: McGraw-Hill.
• Barro, R., Sala-i-Martin, X, 1995, Economic Growth. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Recommended reading list:
• Cashin, Paul, Kent, J. Christopher, 2003, "The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks: Persistence Matters ," IMF WP 03143, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp03143.pdf
• Balassa, B., 1964, "The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, 72: 584-96.
• Samuelson, P.A., 1964, "Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems," Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (May): 145-154.
• Čihák, M. and Holub, T., 2005, "Price Convergence in EU-accession Countries," Économie Internationale, No. 102, pp. 59-82.
• Holub, T. and Čihák, M., 2003, "Price Convergence: What Can the Balassa-Samuelson Model Tell Us?" Working Paper, no. 8/2003, Prague: Czech National Bank (http://www.cnb.cz/en/pdf/wp8-2003.pdf).
• Obstfeld, M., 1996, "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," European Economic Review, vol. 40 (April), pp. 1037-48.
• Chang, R., Velasco, A., 1998, "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," NBER Working Paper Series, no. 6606 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w6606).
• Krugman, P., 1999, "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, 6, 459-472.
• Linhart, C. M.; Rogoff, K. S. (2008): Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison. NBER Working Paper No. 13761.
• Fischer, S., 2001, "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?" A Lecture Delivered at the Meetings of the American Economic Association, New Orleans, January 6 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2001/010601a.pdf).
• Mundell, R., 1961, "A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," American Economic Review, vol. 51, pp. 657-664.
• McKinnon, R.I., 1963, "Optimum Currency Areas," American Economic Review, vol. 53, pp. 717-725.
• Holub, T., 2003, "Importing Low Inflation via Pegged Exchange Rates, Currency Boards and Monetary Unions," ICEG European Center, Working Paper 21, February 2003.
• CNB (2023): Analyses of the Czech Republic's current economic alignment with the euro area, December, https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/monetary-policy/.galleries/strategic_documents/analyses_of_alignment_2023.pdf
• Christiano, Lawrence J., Mathias Trabandt, and Karl Walentin. 2007, November. Introducing Financial Frictions and Unemployment into a Small Open Economy Model. Working paper series 214, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
• Stiglitz, J. E., Weiss, A., 1981, "Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information".
• Kyiotaki, N., Moore, J., 1997, "Credit cycles", Journal of Political Economy, vol 105, No. 2, pp. 211 -248.
• Svensson, L. E. O, 2000, "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting". London: CEPR Discussion Paper, 1989 (October).
• Fraga, A., I. Goldfajn, and A. Minella, 2003, "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper Series, 10019 (October).
• Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho (2011): "28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics) (http://www.bepress.com/bejm/vol11/iss1/art22).
• Rose, A.K. (2014): "Surprising similarities: recent monetary regimes of small economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, 49, 5-27.
• Andersena, T.B., Malchow-Møllerb, N., Nordvigc, J. (2015): "Inflation targeting and macroeconomic performance since the Great Recession." Oxford Economic Papers, 67(3), 2015, 598-613.
• Gali J., Monacelli, T., 2005, "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy", The Review of Economic Studies, vol 72, No. 3 (July 2005), pp. 707 - 734.
• Calvo, G. A., and C. M. Reinhart. "Fear of Floating." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper, 7993, 2000.
• Bofinger, P., and T. Wollmershaeuser, 2001, "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order." London: CEPR Discussion Paper, 3064.
• Goldstein, M., 2002, "Managed Floating Plus." Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, Policy Analyses in International Economics, 66.
• Edison, H. J.1 1993, "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Literature after 1982." Princeton: Princeton University, Special Papers in International Economics, 18, 1993.
• Sarno, L., and M. P. Taylor, 2001, "Official intervention in the foreign exchange market: Is it effective and, if so, how does it work?" Journal of Economic Literature, 39 (3), 839-868.
• Holub, T., 2004, "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience." CNB IRPN, no. 1/2004.
• Geršl, A., Holub, T. Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience. Contemporary Economic Policy, 2006, vol. 24, no. 4 (October), pp. 475-491, ISSN 1074-3529.
• Disyatat, P., and G. Galati, 2005, "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: evidence from the Czech koruna." Basel, BIS Working Paper, 172, 2005.
• Égert, B. and L. Komárek, 2005, "Foreign Exchange Interventions in the Czech Republic: Did They Matter?" Prague, CNB Working Paper Series.
• Cavusoglu, N., 2010, Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey of Findings, Issues and Policy Implications. Global Economy Journal, vol. 10, iss. 4, article 3.
• Gnabo, J-Y, De Mello, J., Moccero, D., 2010, "Interdependencies between Monetary Policy and Foreign Exchange Interventions under Inflation Targeting: The Case of Brazil and the Czech Republic", International Finance, vol. 13, issue 2, pp 195 - 211.
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
Metody výuky -
Přednáška + seminář (v první polovině kurzu zejména procvičování formou počítání příkladů, ve druhé polovině pak prezentace odborných článků)
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
lectures + seminars (first half of the course: mostly calculating exercises; second half: presentation and discussion of papers)
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
Požadavky ke zkoušce -
písemné úkoly: 40 % (10 domácích úkolů maximálně po 4 bodech za každý, tj. celkem 40 bodů)
aktivita na seminářích 4 % (maximálně 4 body)
závěrečná zkouška 56 % (tj. maximálně 56 bodů; písemná prezenční zkouška)
Známkování odpovídá standardní stupnici pro FSV UK
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
The grade will be based on regular written assignments (40%; 10 HWs each worth 4 points at most), seminar activity (4%, i.e. 4 points at most) and a final exam (56 %; written on-site exam - 56 points maximum).
Grading follows the standard FSV UK scale.
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
Sylabus -
Date
Lecture topic
Lecturer
Seminar topic
Seminar teacher
17.2.
Benefits of international financial liberalisation in the 2-period model of intertemporal trade
T. Holub
BoP terminology and identities; 2-period model - exercises
T. Veselá
24.2.
Further issues: borrowing constraints, productive economy, large economies
T. Holub
2-period model extensions - exercises
T. Veselá
3.3.
Welfare implications of sudden stops in international financial flows
T. Holub
Sudden stops and capital flight - exercises
T. Veselá
10.3.
Twin deficits in the OLG model, Feldstein-Horioka puzzle
T. Holub
OLG model - exercices
T. Veselá
17.3.
CA dynamics in the infinite-horizon model with perfect financial markets
T. Holub
Infinite horizon - exercises
T. Veselá
24.3.
Long-term economic growth with international borrowing constraints
T. Holub
Terms-of-trade shocks and CA balance
T. Holub
31.3.
Price level convergence and the Ballassa-Samuelson effect
T. Holub
Equilibrium real interest rate (r*) in large vs. small-open economies
T. Holub
7.4.
Financial imperfections and international financial flows
T. Holub
Financial imperfections - 2 country model
T. Veselá
14.4.
Lecture i) Fundamental-based vs. self-fulfilling currency crisis
T. Holub
Lecture ii) Exchange rate mismatches and their implications
T. Holub
21.4.
Easter holiday
28.4.
OCA and exchange rate regime choice
T. Holub
CNB's analyses for euro adoption
T. Holub
5.5.
Inflation targeting in small open economies, the exchange rate transmission channel
T. Holub
Performance of IT during the crisis in comparison with hard pegs
T. Veselá
12.5.
Foreign exchange interventions under the inflation targeting regime
T. Holub
Exchange rate as an unconventional monetary policy instrument
T. Holub
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
Date
Lecture topic
Lecturer
Seminar topic
Seminar teacher
17.2.
Benefits of international financial liberalisation in the 2-period model of intertemporal trade
T. Holub
BoP terminology and identities; 2-period model - exercises
T. Veselá
24.2.
Further issues: borrowing constraints, productive economy, large economies
T. Holub
2-period model extensions - exercises
T. Veselá
3.3.
Welfare implications of sudden stops in international financial flows
T. Holub
Sudden stops and capital flight - exercises
T. Veselá
10.3.
Twin deficits in the OLG model, Feldstein-Horioka puzzle
T. Holub
OLG model - exercices
T. Veselá
17.3.
CA dynamics in the infinite-horizon model with perfect financial markets
T. Holub
Infinite horizon - exercises
T. Veselá
24.3.
Long-term economic growth with international borrowing constraints
T. Holub
Terms-of-trade shocks and CA balance
T. Holub
31.3.
Price level convergence and the Ballassa-Samuelson effect
T. Holub
Equilibrium real interest rate (r*) in large vs. small-open economies
T. Holub
7.4.
Financial imperfections and international financial flows
T. Holub
Financial imperfections - 2 country model
T. Veselá
14.4.
Lecture i) Fundamental-based vs. self-fulfilling currency crisis
T. Holub
Lecture ii) Exchange rate mismatches and their implications
T. Holub
21.4.
Easter holiday
28.4.
OCA and exchange rate regime choice
T. Holub
CNB's analyses for euro adoption
T. Holub
5.5.
Inflation targeting in small open economies, the exchange rate transmission channel
T. Holub
Performance of IT during the crisis in comparison with hard pegs
T. Veselá
12.5.
Foreign exchange interventions under the inflation targeting regime
T. Holub
Exchange rate as an unconventional monetary policy instrument
T. Holub
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
Vstupní požadavky -
absolvování kurzu makroekonomie uzavřené ekonomiky na středně pokročilé úrovni
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (30.01.2025)
passing intermediate macroeconomics for closed economies
Poslední úprava: Holub Tomáš, doc. Mgr., Ph.D. (02.02.2024)
