PředmětyPředměty(verze: 902)
Předmět, akademický rok 2022/2023
  
International Macroeconomics and Finance - JEM111
Anglický název: International Macroeconomics and Finance
Zajišťuje: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
Fakulta: Fakulta sociálních věd
Platnost: od 2021
Semestr: letní
E-Kredity: 6
Způsob provedení zkoušky: letní s.:
Rozsah, examinace: letní s.:2/2 [hodiny/týden]
Počet míst: 59 / 59 (59)
Minimální obsazenost: neomezen
Virtuální mobilita / počet míst: ne
Stav předmětu: vyučován
Jazyk výuky: angličtina
Způsob výuky: prezenční
Další informace: https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3aEiButhqBxzi_wYesfsHT40V46IAvqJcL3RofwnXE8g41%40thread.tacv2/1644406963902?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%22e09276da-f934-4086-bf08-8816a20414a2%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22bc621551-e2c1-4800-9f8c-fb4a74ab17ad%22%7d
Poznámka: předmět je možno zapsat mimo plán
povolen pro zápis po webu
při zápisu přednost, je-li ve stud. plánu
Garant: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D.
Vyučující: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D.
Mgr. Vojtěch Molnár
Třída: Courses for incoming students
Prerekvizity : {Skupina prerekvizit pro JEM111 (JEM004 nebo JEM216)}
Termíny zkoušek   Rozvrh   Nástěnka   
Anotace -
Poslední úprava: Mgr. Michaela Čuprová (02.02.2020)
This course is focused on advanced international macroeconomics with an emphasis on the issues associated with international financial flows. It contrasts benefits and potential challenges associated with these international financial flows. It starts with studying the intertemporal trade between economies and equilibrium current account determination with perfect financial markets. The implications of sudden stops in international lending or capital flight are then discussed. One lecture deals with the twin-deficit phenomenon and interpretation of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. The neo-classical growth model for a small open economy facing borrowing constraints is derived. The price level convergence is also studied using the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Attention is also paid to financial imperfections and their impact on international capital allocation. The second block of lectures starts with discussing the exchange rate regime choice, currency crises and the optimum currency area theory. The focus is then put on the inflation-targeting regime in small open economies, reaction of central banks to foreign shocks, discussion of exchange rate management under the inflation targeting, etc. The course assumes a prior good knowledge of closed-economy macroeconomics at the level of master studies.
Cíl předmětu -
Poslední úprava: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (29.01.2020)

Tento předmět navazuje na pokročilý kurz makroekonomie a zaměřuje se na otázky specifické pro malé otevřené ekonomiky, včetně role nedokonalostí mezinárodních finančních trhů. Jeho absolvování umožňuje orientovat se v otázkách dlouhodobého růstu, kurzových režimů i stablizační politiky pro tento typ ekonomik.

Literatura -
Poslední úprava: PhDr. Petr Bednařík, Ph.D. (15.05.2020)

• Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K.: Foundations of International Macroeconomics. London: MIT Press, 1996. http://leteckaposta.cz/442168243

• Romer, D., 1996, Advanced Macroeconomics. New York: McGraw-Hill.

• Barro, R., Sala-i-Martin, X, 1995, Economic Growth. New York: McGraw-Hill.

• Balassa, B., 1964, "The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, 72: 584-96.

• Samuelson, P.A., 1964, "Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems," Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (May): 145-154.

• Čihák, M. and Holub, T., 2005, "Price Convergence in EU-accession Countries," Économie Internationale, No. 102, pp. 59-82.

• Holub, T. and Čihák, M., 2003, "Price Convergence: What Can the Balassa-Samuelson Model Tell Us?" Working Paper, no. 8/2003, Prague: Czech National Bank (http://www.cnb.cz/en/pdf/wp8-2003.pdf).

• Obstfeld, M., 1996, "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," European Economic Review, vol. 40 (April), pp. 1037-48.

• Chang, R., Velasco, A., 1998, "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," NBER Working Paper Series, no. 6606 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w6606).

• Krugman, P., 1999, "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, 6, 459-472.

• DeLong, j. B., 2001, "The International Crises of the 1990s: Analytics" (http://www.j-bradford-delong.net).

• Linhart, C. M.; Rogoff, K. S. (2008): Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison. NBER Working Paper No. 13761.

• Fischer, S., 2001, "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?" A Lecture Delivered at the Meetings of the American Economic Association, New Orleans, January 6 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2001/010601a.pdf).

• Mundell, R., 1961, "A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," American Economic Review, vol. 51, pp. 657-664.

• McKinnon, R.I., 1963, "Optimum Currency Areas," American Economic Review, vol. 53, pp. 717-725.

• Holub, T., 2003, "Importing Low Inflation via Pegged Exchange Rates, Currency Boards and Monetary Unions," ICEG European Center, Working Paper 21, February 2003. 

• CNB (2016): Analyses of the Czech Republic's current economic alignment with the euro area, December, http://www.cnb.cz/miranda2/export/sites/www.cnb.cz/en/monetary_policy/strategic_documents/download/analyses_of_alignment_2016.pdf

• Christiano, Lawrence J., Mathias Trabandt, and Karl Walentin. 2007, November. Introducing Financial Frictions and Unemployment into a Small Open Economy Model.  Working paper series 214, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

• Stiglitz, J. E., Weiss, A., 1981, "Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information".

• Kyiotaki, N., Moore, J., 1997, "Credit cycles", Journal of Political Economy, vol 105, No. 2, pp. 211 -248.

• Svensson, L. E. O, 2000, "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting". London: CEPR Discussion Paper, 1989 (October).

• Fraga, A., I. Goldfajn, and A. Minella, 2003, "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper Series, 10019 (October).

• Mishkin, F. S.,  Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2006): "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?" CNB Working Paper, no. 13/2006 (http://www.cnb.cz/www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/2006/cnbwp_2006_13.html).

• Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho (2011): "28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics) (http://www.bepress.com/bejm/vol11/iss1/art22).

• Rose, A.K. (2014): "Surprising similarities: recent monetary regimes of small economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, 49, 5-27.

• Andersena, T.B., Malchow-Møllerb, N., Nordvigc, J. (2015): "Inflation targeting and macroeconomic performance since the Great Recession." Oxford Economic Papers, 67(3), 2015, 598-613.

• Gali J., Monacelli, T., 2005, "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy", The Review of Economic Studies, vol 72, No. 3 (July 2005), pp. 707 - 734.

• Calvo, G. A., and C. M. Reinhart. "Fear of Floating." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper, 7993, 2000.

• Bofinger, P., and T. Wollmershaeuser, 2001, "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order." London: CEPR Discussion Paper, 3064.

• Goldstein, M., 2002, "Managed Floating Plus." Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, Policy Analyses in International Economics, 66.

• Edison, H. J.1 1993, "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Literature after 1982." Princeton: Princeton University, Special Papers in International Economics, 18, 1993.

• Sarno, L., and M. P. Taylor, 2001, "Official intervention in the foreign exchange market: Is it effective and, if so, how does it work?" Journal of Economic Literature, 39 (3), 839-868.

• Holub, T., 2004, "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience." CNB IRPN, no. 1/2004.

• Geršl, A., Holub, T. Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience. Contemporary Economic Policy, 2006, vol. 24, no. 4 (October), pp. 475-491, ISSN 1074-3529.

• Disyatat, P., and G. Galati, 2005, "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: evidence from the Czech koruna." Basel, BIS Working Paper, 172, 2005.

• Égert, B. and L. Komárek, 2005, "Foreign Exchange Interventions in the Czech Republic: Did They Matter?" Prague, CNB Working Paper Series.

• Cavusoglu, N., 2010, Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey of Findings, Issues and Policy Implications. Global Economy Journal, vol. 10, iss. 4, article 3.

• Gnabo, J-Y, De Mello, J., Moccero, D., 2010, "Interdependencies between Monetary Policy and Foreign Exchange Interventions under Inflation Targeting: The Case of Brazil and the Czech Republic", International Finance, vol. 13, issue 2, pp 195 - 211. 

Metody výuky -
Poslední úprava: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (12.02.2021)

Přednáška + seminář (v první polovině kurzu zejména procvičování formou počítání příkladů, ve druhé polovině pak prezentace odborných článků)

distanční výuka v MS Teams kvůli koronavirové situaci 

https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_OGI0YzI2NmItMjUzYi00NDQzLTlmMmMtNmVjNjIwZTk0MjAx%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%2273844aaf-f10c-4dee-aaaf-5eeb27962a5d%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22b158c005-557c-4216-bac0-fc2c55c500bc%22%7d

Požadavky ke zkoušce -
Poslední úprava: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (07.02.2022)

Požadavky při hybridní výuce:

písemné úkoly: 44 % (11 úkolů maximálně po 4 bodech za každý, tj. celkem 44 bodů)

aktivita na seminářích 6 % (maximálně 6 bodů)

závěrečná zkouška 50 % (tj. maximálně 50 bodů; písemná prezenční zkouška / ústní forma zkoušky prostřednictvím videokonference)

 

Známkování odpovídá standardní stupnici pro FSV UK

Sylabus -
Poslední úprava: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (07.02.2022)

14.2.
Lecture: Benefits of international financial liberalisation in the 2-period model of intertemporal trade
Seminar: BoP terminology and identities; 2-period model - exercises

21.2.
Lecture: Further issues: borrowing constraints, productive economy, large economies
Seminar: 2-period model - exercises on further issues

28.2.
Lecture 1: CA dynamics in the infinite-horizon model with perfect financial markets
Lecture 2: Long-term economic growth with international borrowing constraints

7.3.
Guest lecture: Equilibrium real interest rate (r*) in large vs. small-open economies (J. Vlček)
Seminar: Infinite-horizon model - exercises

14.3.
Lecture: Price level convergence and the Ballassa-Samuelson effect
Seminar: Ballassa-Samuleson effect - exercises

21.3.
Lecture: Twin deficits in the OLG model, Feldstein-Horioka puzzle
Seminar: OLG model - exercices

28.3.
Lecture: Welfare implications of sudden stops in international financial flows
Seminar: Sudden stops and capital flight - exercises

4.4.
Lecture 1: Financial imperfections and international financial flows
Lecture 2: Fundamental-based vs. self-fulfilling currency crisis (lecture)

11.4.
Lecture: Exchange rate mismatches and their implications
Seminar: Early warning indicators of currency and financial crises

18.4. Easter holiday x

25.4.
Lecture: OCA and exchange rate regime choice
Seminar: CNB's analyses for euro adoption

2.5.
Lecture: Inflation targeting in small open economies, the exchange rate transmission channel
Seminar: Performance of IT during the crisis in comparison with hard pegs

9.5.
Lecture: Foreign exchange interventions under the inflation targeting regime
Seminar: Exchange rate as an unconventional monetary policy instrumen

Vstupní požadavky -
Poslední úprava: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (14.04.2008)

absolvování kurzu JEM004 Makroekonomie AI (nebo podobného kurzu makroekonomie na pokročilé úrovni)

 
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