"Global Space Security and the U.S. - China - Russia Rivalry."

• Název práce v češtině: "Globální bezpečnost kosmických aktivit a soupeření mezi USA – Čínou – Ruskem"
• Název v anglickém jazyce: "Global Space Security and the U.S. - China - Russia Rivalry."
• Klíčová slova: kontrola zbrojení v kosmickém prostoru, astropolitika, řízení aktivit v kosmickém prostoru, krizový management pro kosmický prostor, bezpečnost v kosmu, Spojené státy, Čína, Rusko
• Klíčová slova anglicky: arms control in space, astropolitics, Astropolitik, counterspace activities, space governance, space crisis management, space security, spacepower, Unites States, China, Russia
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2010/2011
• Typ práce: disertační práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Katedra politologie (23-KP)
• Vedoucí / školitel: PhDr. Michael Romancov, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: Jana Robinson, Ph.D. - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 24.11.2010
• Datum zadání: 24.11.2010
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 07.09.2016 00:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: FSV
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 03.08.2016
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 07.09.2016
• Oponenti: Dr Radomir Jansky, DPhil

Seznam odborné literatury

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Předběžná náplň práce

Tato práce se zaměřuje na zkoumání, zda politická moc, kterou propaguje Čína a Rusko prostřednictvím domény vesmíru ve svých diplomatických aktivitách a jiných iniciativách, v blízké budoucnosti oslabí, nebo naopak posílí globální snahy zachovat stabilitu kosmického prostoru a udržitelnost kosmických aktivit. Analýza, která je prezentována v této studii, je provedena na základě dvou teorií: “Astropolitiky”, uznávanné teorii Dr. Everetta C. Dolmana o mocenském boji v kosmu, a teorii Dr. Maxe Mutschlera o “preventivní kontrole zbrojení v kosmu”.
Hodnocení vedlo k závěru, že kontrola zbrojení v kosmu nepodpoří snahy zachovat bezpečnost kosmického prostoru a aktivit a nezabrání systematické destabilizaci domény vesmíru. Formální kontrola zbrojení nezabrání nedestruktivním a destruktivním činnostem v kosmu (tzv. counterspace activities ). Dále bylo zjištěno, že existuje vysoká pravděpodobnost incidentu v blízké době v kosmickém prostoru mezi USA, Ruskem a Čínou.
Aby se zabránilo eskalační spirále, která by se rozvinula v konflikt v kosmu, měly by Spojené státy americké nadále zapojovat Čínu a Rusko (včetně v multilaterálních forech) do snah akceptovat transparentnost a opatření zvyšujících vzájemnou důvěru (tzv. transparency and confidence-building measures, TCBM). Tato opatření samotná ale nemají dostatečnou moc zajistit, aby se tato pravidla dodržovala, ani neslouží jako rozhodující odstrašující prostředek ve většině geopolitických scénářích. Proto musí být TCBM doprovázeny komplexním krizovým managementem pro vesmír (tzv. space crisis management ). Návrh konceptu krizového managementu je v práci popsán. Společně tak mají šanci posílit bezpečnost v kosmu a přispět k jeho stabilitě.
Hlavním přínosem této práce k teoretickým a praktickým diskuzím o bezpečnosti v kosmickém prostoru je podrobná analýza dvou opačných návrhů, jak by se měly řídit aktivity spojené se zajiětěním bezpečnosti v kosmu. Tato práce navrhuje realistický přístup a vybudování krizového management pro kosmický prostor. Závěry této studie by měly sloužit jako základ pro další vylepšení teorie o mocenském boji v kosmu Dr. Everetta Dolmana, které jsou podpořeny zkoumanými argumenty o nedostatcích kontroly zbrojení v kosmu.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

This study concentrates on whether the spacepower projection strategies of China and Russia, as communicated through their actions, key initiatives and public diplomacy positions, will, in the near future, undermine or advance global efforts to preserve the stability of the space environment and sustainability of outer space activities. In order to arrive at key findings, the analysis presented in this study is guided by two theories, the Astropolitik, a well-established spacepower theory of Everett C. Dolman, and the “preventive arms control in space” theory of Max Mutschler.
It was concluded that arms control in space will not advance space security and prevent systemic destabilization of the space domain, and formal top-down arms control does not effectively restrain counterspace activities . It was likewise concluded that there exists a high probability (i.e. possibly greater than 75%) of near-term space ‘incident’ among the U.S., Russia and China.
To prevent an escalatory spiral leading to conflict in space, the U.S. should continue to engage China and Russia (including in multilateral venues) in an effort to adopt space transparency and confidence-building measures (space TCBMs). However, these measures on their own do not have sufficient authority or garner adequate compliance to serve as a decisive deterrent in all, or even most, geopolitical scenarios. Accordingly, TCBMs need to be accompanied by sound and robust space crisis management. Together, they can enhance space security and contribute to the stability and sustainability of the space domain.
The key contribution of this study to the theoretical and practical discussions concerning space security is an in-depth analysis of two contrasting propositions for the near-future governance of space activities, and suggesting a realist path forward. Findings of this study should provide a solid basis for scholars to further refine the spacepower theory of Everett Dolman assisted by researched arguments about the shortcomings of arms control in space.