Cold Waters, Hot Stakes: Systemic Geostrategic Analysis of International Relations in the Arctic Transborder Region

• Název v anglickém jazyce: Cold Waters, Hot Stakes: Systemic Geostrategic Analysis of International ; Relations in the Arctic Transborder Region
• Klíčová slova: Geopolitika, Geostrategie, Arktida, Systém, Mezinárodní, Regionalismus
• Klíčová slova anglicky: Geopolitics, Geostrategy, the Arctic, System, International, Regionalism
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2010/2011
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Katedra politologie (23-KP)
• Vedoucí / školitel: PhDr. Michael Romancov, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 17.05.2011
• Datum zadání: 18.05.2011
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 20.06.2011 00:00
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 19.05.2011
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 20.06.2011
• Oponenti: prof. PhDr. Bořivoj Hnízdo, Ph.D.

Seznam odborné literatury

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Lectures
JERVIS, Robert. “Current Issues of the U.S.- and International-Security Politics.” Open Lecture. Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, 4 May 2010(b).

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Předběžná náplň práce

Cílem této práce je zaplnit mezeru v civilním výzkumu pomoci vlastní dvoufázové verze systémové, dynamické a interdisciplinární analýzy vývoje Arktického transhraničního regionu, jehož jižní hranice je limitovaná polárním kruhem. Výzkum je založen na předpokladech nového geopolitického myšlení a systémového modelování, a vnímá geostrategickou analýzu jako povinný akademický příspěvek k ‘umění’ řízení státu. První fáze analýzy je induktivní, deskriptivní a statická. Definuje Arktický region jako systém pěti geostrategických akčních prostorů, fyzického prostoru (S1), vojenského prostoru (S2), ekonomického prostoru (S3), demografického prostoru (S4) a informačního prostoru (S5). Po stanovení základních charakteristik fyzického prostoru, analýza sociální síti je aplikovaná na čtyři, lidmi vytvořené prostory (S2-S5) – tj. jsou vymezené základní sítě vztahů (linky) mezi klíčovými hráči (body). Matice symetrických vztahů ve vojenském prostoru (S2), ekonomickém prostoru (S3), a demografickém prostoru (S4) ukazují vztahovou intenzitu. Pro faktické zobrazení toho jak změny v jednom prostoru vedou ke změnám v jiných prostorech, je představeno deset primárních kanálů mezi-prostorového afektu. Druhá fáze analýzy je deduktivní, analytická a dynamická. Jelikož se může region stát zónou konfliktu a nebo zónou spolupráce, dalším cílem této práce je předpověď, který ze dvou scénářů převládne v roce 2040. Ze začátku jsou představeny síly podporující a oslabující stabilitu současného systému. Dále, Lawson W. Brighamovy čtyři scénáře možného vývoje regionu do roku 2040 (“globalizovaný prostor”, “adaptivní prostor”, “opevněný prostor” a “spravedlivý prostor”) jsou přizpůsobeny souhře těchto sil. Na konci je nabídnut hybridní scénář jako nejpravděpodobnější.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

This work aims to fill the gap in the civil scientific agenda by offering its own, two-stage version of a systemic, dynamic, and interdisciplinary analysis of the developments in the Arctic transborder region; by fixing the region’s southern border at the Arctic Circle, adjusting to the premises of new geopolitics, using systemic modeling, and viewing geostrategic analysis as an obligatory academic contribution to the ‘art’ of statecraft.The first stage of analysis is inductive, descriptive, and static. It defines the Arctic region as a system of five geostrategic action spaces, physical space (S1), military space (S2), economic space (S3), demographic space (S4), and information space (S5). After defining essential elements of the physical environment, social network analysis is applied on four human-constructed geostrategic spaces (S2-S5) – i.e. the basic networks of relationship (links) between the key actors (nodes) are created. Matrices of symmetrical relationships for military space (S2), economic space (S3), and demographic space (S4) are constructed to demonstrate the links’ intensity. In order to illustrate the fact that changes in one action space ultimately transform other spaces, ten possible channels of inter-space affection are illustrated. The second stage of analysis is deductive, analytical, and dynamic. As the region can turn into an area of conflict or cooperation, the work attempts to predict which scenario will prevail by 2040. Firstly, the forces strengthening the system’s stability and weakening the system’s stability are identified. Secondly, four Lawson W. Brigham’s “Scenarios for 2040” (“Globalized Frontier”, “Adaptive Frontier”, “Fortress Frontier”, and “Equitable Frontier”) are adjusted to interplay of these forces. Finally, a ‘hybrid’ scenario is offered as the most probable outcome of the development in the region in the next 30 years.