Analysis of ISIS's Insurgency through the theory of Revolutionary Warfare

• Název práce v češtině: Analýza povstání ISIS prostřednictvím teorie revolučního válčení
• Název v anglickém jazyce: Analysis of ISIS's Insurgency through the theory of Revolutionary Warfare
• Klíčová slova: ISIS, Insurgency, Strategy, Irregular Conflict, Mosul or (Iraq + Syria, Non-State Actors)
• Klíčová slova anglicky: ISIS, Insurgency, Strategy, Irregular Conflict, Mosul or (Iraq + Syria, Non-State Actors)
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2019/2020
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Katedra bezpečnostních studií (23-KBS)
• Vedoucí / školitel: prof. PhDr. Emil Aslan, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 22.05.2020
• Datum zadání: 22.05.2020
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 23.09.2021 08:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: Pekařská 16, JPEK312, 312, Malá učebna, 3.patro
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 27.07.2021
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 23.09.2021
• Oponenti: prof. Mgr. Oldřich Bureš, Ph.D., M.A.

Zásady pro vypracování

1) Research Question:
What can we learn from applying the Mao Tse-tung theory of Revolutionary Warfare in the context of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria?

(Can this approach provide an effective counterinsurgency method to stop a further potential IS advance and/or prevent the establishment of another radical Islamic State Caliphate)

2) Theory

This theory is based on three consecutive phases and was developed in favour of the Communist uprise after different failed attempts, meant to gain power over the Chinese Nationalist authority.

Phase 1: Get organized, consolidate power, and preserve control over regional base areas.

From Mao's experience of the Revolution, recruitment started in rural and isolated areas, in which the government control was at its lowest. In these types of places, it will be easier to gain support, find volunteers, gain intelligence and to prevent infiltration by the government.

Phase 2: The gradual Progression

This phase involves mainly strategies like guerrilla warfare, arms struggles, terrorism, and direct actions like ambushes and executions. Key elements of this stage are to prove themselves, gain huge support form the population, and acquire the tactical and strategic advantage.

Phase 3: Annihilation of the Enemy or Negotiating Decision

At this stage, the transformation from insurgents to conventional combat will take place. A potential Negotiation might come from the enemy, but Mao suggested only to accept it if it will make them gain strategic advantage or a deceptive measure.

(On Guerrilla Warfare. Translated by Samuel B. Griffith II. Champaign Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 2002.

Mao Tse-tung. On Guerrilla Warfare. 2nd ed. Edited and translated by Samuel B. Griffith. Garden City: Anchor Press, 1978.)

3) Research Methodology

The paper will be structured in a way that will provide an understanding of the study. The purpose of the study is to gain a different point of view of the IS Insurgency, and eventually extract new and different COIN approaches. The paper will be organized with a Qualitative Method and refer to a Case Study approach to analyse the Insurgents through Mao's theory.

Considering the purpose of the research it is important to set as the dependent variable the degree of compatibility of Mao's theory in the IS context. Thanks to the guide provided by Mao, it will be possible to match the theory with the Jihadist and prove that they fit together. For the Second RQ, the COIN strategy against ISIS will be analysed and compared to what Mao's theory suggests.

4) Data for the answers of the RQs

It will be key to examine the activities, ideology, attacks and much more of IS, and the activities for those who fought against them. Data will be collected from books, articles, reports, media and much more and it will also be examined and associated depending on the estimated level of adherence with the theory (0 = no adherence, 3 = full level of compatibility).

5) Relevant topics for Data collection
5.1) Intelligence (organization, spying on government troops Baghdad plus Damascus, applying Civilians, knowledge of the local terrain).
5.2) Decentralization (engage the enemy in a surprising manner, dynamic fights)
5.3) Politics (Doctrine, organization, propaganda, instruction…)
5.4) Control of Difficult terrain + Advancing (Expanding control, recruitment, increasing number of military equipment, attacks on weak points).
5.5) Use of Violence (terror attacks, propaganda, strategic violence).
5.6) Final stage (becoming a conventional force, negotiations).
(A Critical Analysis of Boko Haram Insurgency, Major Sadau Zubairu Azama, 2017.)
6) Literature review

The Theory of Mao + 3 Phases, Concept + Analysis of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency, Concept + ideology and Purpose of Islamic State, Story of ISIS (from Al-Qaeda).

Seznam odborné literatury

6) Bibliography

Brands H. & Feaver P. (2017). Was the Rise of ISIS Inevitable?, Survival, 59:3, 7-54, DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2017.1325595

CIA. 2011. “Guide to the Analysis of Insurgency.” Downloadable at: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiNhqSEqofsAhXRasAKHeF7B-kQFjABegQIBRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cia.gov%2Flibrary%2Freadingroom%2Fdocs%2FCIA-RDP87T01127R000300220005-6.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3GzA2zFmymz5P1o3DdItMH

Didi A. E. (2015). Understanding ISIS Ideology: The Evolution of Political Islam (Part 4).

http://natoassociation.ca/understanding-isis-ideology-the-evolution-of-political-

islam-part-4/. Accessed May 21, 2019.



Engel A. (2015). The Islamic State's Expansion in Libya.



Euronews. (2019). “Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi” Downloadable at : https://www.euronews.com/tag/abu-bakr-al-baghdadi

Griffith S. B. (1978). “Mao Tse-tung. On Guerrilla Warfare”. 2nd ed. Edited. Garden City: Anchor Press, 1978.

Jaynal M. A. (2019). THE PRINCIPLES OF ISIS'S IDEOLOGY: AN ACADEMIC DEBATE. 10.5281/zenodo.3564632.

Kavalek T. (2015). “From al-Qaeda in Iraq to Islamic State: The Story of Insurgency in Iraq and Syria in 2003- 2015.”

Lacey, B. (2015). Investigating insurgency and counter insurgency and attaining a monopoly on violence. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses_hons/386

Lt. Col. McIntyre J. 2018. “Got COIN? Counterinsurgency Debate Continues”.

Major Azam S. Z. (2017). A Critical Analysis of Boko Haram Insurgency

Marks, T. (2009). “Mao Tse-Tung and the Search for 21st Century Counterinsurgency.” CTC Sentinel 2, no. 10 (October 2009): 17-20. Accessed 3 December 2016. https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/mao-tse-tung-and-the-search-for-21stcentury-counterinsurgency

Sky News. (2019). 'We're going to slaughter you': The children of Syria's IS camp. Downloadable at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tW_7me1Nj7w&t=2s
University of Illinois Press. (2002). “Mao Tse-tung, On Guerrilla Warfare”, trans. Samuel B. Griffith II (ChampaignUrbana)

U.S. Department of State. (2016). “Washington, DC: Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, January 2009”. Accessed 17 November 2016. Downloadable at: http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/119629.pdf.

US Government. (2012). “Guide to the Analysis of Insurgency 2012.” Downloadable at: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiNhqSEqofsAhXRasAKHeF7B-kQFjACegQIAxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hsdl.org%2F%3Fview%26did%3D713599&usg=AOvVaw3XifPFCt5bIOGcnqpgTa16

Předběžná náplň práce

1) Introduction to the topic

1.1) Background

The so-called Islamic State appeared for the first time in October 2006 in Iraq. It started as a detachment originated from “Al-Qaeda in Iraq” (AQI), which at that time was led by Al-Zarqawi. This new radical faction became very active in the areas of the Sunni population allocated in the North West of Iraq, which was struggling as a Muslim minority. They claimed to be ignored by the government of Baghdad and this is a key aspect of a nation with a Shia majority that is still leading the Republic of Iraq, since the fall of the brutal Sunni regime of Saddam Hussein (Kavalek, 2015). The Islamic State of Iraq, that later became active in Syria as well, managed to reach all the different stages of a successful Insurgency. The IS started by gaining support and cooperation from local tribes and population while disclaiming the government of Baghdad through their own propaganda, and by claiming the need of a drastic change for the grievances of the Sunnis. Thanks to their alleged International support and criminal activities such as terrorism, illegal trade of black oil and much more, they were eventually able to finance the costs of a massive Insurgency, that finally led to the establishment in 2014 of the biggest and most brutal Caliphate in recent history (Brands & Feaver, 2017). After multiple battles, in a still partially ongoing civilian conflict, among different factions and the International anti-ISIS coalition on the fields of Iraq and the Levant, the Caliphate became eventually eradicated, and its worldwide famous leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi got killed in a well-planned air-raid by the US forces. (Euronews, 2019).

1.2) Significance, objective, and aim of the Dissertation

Even though the Islamic State’s threat in the region of the Levant and Iraq appears to be momentarily disappeared, or simply unrecovered, there are still similar groups like Boko Haram in Mali and Nigeria that pledged their allegiance to the IS Caliphate (Major Azam, 2017). In addition to that, the IS terrorist group itself tried with a similar mechanism to the franchising businesses, to repeat their experience in different nations like Libya, the Philippines, Yemen, and much more (Engel, 2015). In the meantime, the IS ideology among their radical interpretation of Islam, is still far away from being totally eradicated as well. Different experts presume that a new IS State is likely to come back. This unpleasant scenario has some real fundamentals, due to the further developed grievances of the Sunni population and the massive successful escaping attempts by previous members of Daesh from local prisons (Sky News, 2019). All things considered; it becomes crucial to dig deeper into the impressive achievement of the ISIS insurgency. More research needs to be done to gain more knowledge about this insurgents’ strategy, and in addition to that, obviously to identify a better suited Counterinsurgency (COIN) approach. The Objective of the study therefore is to seek a more accurate comprehension of the ISIS Insurgency, gain apprehension of their actions and identity, if possible, to look at potential solutions. The research will hopefully acquire significance for the academic world, especially in the military and Security context, and optimistically speaking also for those populations, societies and governments that are involved within a similar conflict them-self. In the context of ISIS, this paper will apply the theory developed by Mao about the Revolutionary war, this will be key for incrementing new contents in the already existing literature.



2) Research Questions & Research Target

2.1) Central Question

What can we learn from the application of the Mao Tse-tung theory about the “Revolutionary Warfare”, in the Insurgency context of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria?

2.2) Subordinate Question

Can this framework provide an alternative, but still effective, Counterinsurgency approach, which will eventually become beneficial to prevent further establishments of IS Caliphates?

2.3) Research Target

To answer these Research Questions, it will be crucial to define whenever possible if the requirements of the Mao’s theory can be fulfilled in the Islamic State’s context, or not. To judge whether the general aspects of the theory can become successfully implemented for the ISIS scenario, there will be a scale that will determine the level of adherence for every single subtopic involved.



3) Literature Review

3.1) Mao’s theory about Guerrilla Warfare

- Introduction

Mao Tse-tung was not keen to obtain for China a democratic liberalism form of government, or a parliamentary socialism one, he genuinely thought that they were not applicable for his homeland. But at the same time, he knew that a radical change was required, even though in that historical period China was not allowing to face a gradual process that would eventually enabled a general evolution without pain and sacrifice (Griffith, 1978). It is important to mention that at that time, China was struggling with a high level of poverty. There were millions of peasants which were surviving at a level of subsistence, and only very few of them were owning the land. In addition to that, there were issues like: a high number of voracious soldiers and bandits, the spread of diseases, floods, and much more. Chinese communities were suffering from a lack of public services, doctors, schools, water, streets, and much more (Marks, 2009). Mao therefore decided to join certain revolutionaries’ groups, but they eventually proved him to be far away from being well prepared for such a massive change in the Chinese society. After multiple failed attempts inside China, Mao had finally the possibility to reflect on the past negative events and develop a better structured plan for a successful Guerrilla Warfare. As a result, he came with the theory of Revolutionary Warfare, which is divided into three main phases (University of Illinois Press, 2002).

- Phase 1

The first stage of this theory is related to the concepts of; consolidation, preservation of areas as a base, and organization. The areas of interest of the first phase, most of the time, regards places that are difficult to reach because of the natural isolation that surrounds them (Griffith, 1978). A crucial element of the Revolutionary war theory, like the concept of insurgency, is the recruitment process. This must take place in areas in which the government is not so actively engaged because eventually, this strategy will enable them to gather volunteers, which are already in favour of fighting for the cause, and also get them trained and indoctrinated with the right political mindset. In addition to that, it will become crucial to obtain support from the population of the rural areas, which will be mainly achievable thanks to the previous spreading of the own propaganda, and by employing agitators when needed (University of Illinois Press, 2002). This approach will eventually lead to gain the trust of the new sympathizers, and therefore obtain help and assistance from the population in form of vital information, lodgings, food supply, further recruits, and so on. This phase, to become successful, will have to be applied in a methodical and progressive way, without neglecting the implication of leading an underground organization (Major Azam, 2017).

The government on the other hand, it will try its best to gather information on the Insurgents and their organization. In this scenario, those in a more favourable position will not be the State’s authority, but instead the revolutionary forces, which will take advantage from the fact that the villages in that they operate will be small, therefore more difficult for the government to get an internal point of view of the situation (Griffith, 1978).

- Phase 2

The second stage of Mao’s theory rotates around the concept of gradual growth. The change into this phase will enable the revolutionary group to come out of the rural shadow and engage their enemies through military actions such as guerrilla warfare, terror attacks, and so on. Future attacks must always become structured in a way that is focused on the weaknesses of the enemies, military as well as police. This strategy will never bring direct victory to the insurgents, but instead, it will strengthen them up by quick actions that consist of stealing ammunition and heavy weapons from previously attacked and now abandoned military outposts. Thanks to this approach, it will also be possible to gather some tactical experience that will eventually return useful in the next phase (Griffith, 1978). Thanks to potential victorious operations like these, it will eventually be possible to spread fear over the government’s forces. Furthermore, Mao’s strategy also suggests accomplishing extreme actions like kidnapping and executing important enemies’ key figures, to give proof to the citizens of their military capacity to appear to them as trustworthy (Major Azam, 2017). Parallel to that, the neighbouring provinces must be incorporated and indoctrinated as well. It will become crucial for the revolution to obtain liberated area from the governmental presence, and to maximize the support and commitment of the masses (University of Illinois Press, 2002).

- Phase 3

The main elements of the last transition are focused on two different outcomes, these can be summarised by the terms: decision and destruction. To proceed, it is vital that the revolutionary force will have to transform themselves into a conventional force (Major Azam, 2017). The first potential scenario will involve a negotiation with the enemy. In Mao’s interpretation, it is important to not start this tactic themselves and to accept only favourable compromises when associated with all types of advantages in the strategical field. Potential gains in misleading the adversaries by acting interested in these kinds of talks with the enemy are beneficial to various sectors such as the military and the economic sphere. (Griffith II, 2002).

Key information will at this stage even have a more important role then before, especially because the military actions will still be focused on the enemy negligence. The main source of intelligence will remain the population it-self and therefore it will become vital to remain in contact with the citizens and make sure that they become their exclusive source. Mao in this regard suggested to undertake military actions only when the conditions were advantageous, and just to pursuit tactics like the “hit and run” one. In fact, he even stated that every insurgent must be a good runner, that’s because only dynamic fights through unexpected attacks can lead the insurgents to victory against governmental forces (Major Azam, 2017).



3.2) Analysis of Insurgency

- Definition

According to the US Government Insurgency is “a protracted political-military struggle directed toward subverting or displacing the legitimacy of a constituted government or occupying power and completely or partially controlling the resources of a territory through the use of irregular military forces and illegal political organizations. The common denominator for most insurgent groups is their objective of gaining control of a population or a particular territory, including its resources. This objective differentiates insurgent groups from purely terrorist organizations. It is worth noting that identifying a movement as an insurgency does not convey a normative judgment on the legitimacy of the movement or its cause.” (US Government, 2012. page 1).

- Common Characteristics, Typologies & Life Cycles

In every Insurgency, their members aim for things such as undercutting the capacity of the government and providing different types of public services, particularly the ones of the sectors of security, justice, education. The insurgency fighters also seek to gain support from all the citizens, without just focusing on their sympathizers. In other words, it does not matter always matter what people think about them and their cause, in the end, fear and intimidation will still be tools that will affect the citizens’ contribution (US Government, 2012). Provocations towards the regime will also become crucial to enable brutal counteractions on behalf of the government. These will eventually lead the civilians to easily volunteer for the Insurgency. In addition to that, a typical common characteristic of the Insurgents from all around the globe are the subversion of their enemies and the alleged assistance for their cause, mainly international (CIA. 2011). It is also important to mention that every insurgency has mainly to prove to the citizens to be more legitimate than their enemy, and therefore violent actions are just ways of externalizing their existence. During the entire Insurgency, the conflict will be carried out in a different way than traditional warfare, which means that thanks to tactics like guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and so on, there will be no front lines and massive battles. A further aspect that complicates the situation for the government will be the fact that the difference between insurgents and non-combatants civilians will be minimal, therefore during this type of conflict the number of civilian’s death will become impressively high (US Government, 2012).

According to the Analysis of the Insurgency written by the US government, it is possible to distinguish the types of Insurgency by examining what their members set as goals, or in an alternative, by studying their methodology. It is still possible that their objectives may change through time, and that certain dissimilar insurgency groups may get along and cooperate against their common enemy while postponing the conflict between themselves to a later moment (CIA. 2011). Typical insurgents’ goals are, for example, the replacement of the previous political system, especially with great concern about the social and economic sphere. Other kinds of anti-government fighters may instead just aim for reforms and new policies. The third type of goal set by the insurgent's fighters has as their main objective the independence of a specific region. An alternative type of insurgency might be meant to achieve the outcome of enabling the withdraw of an occupying military force from an area (Lacey, 2015). And finally, the last potential main goal of the insurgents could be to counterbalance a specific political power that is having an impact on the wealth of the population. A typical example of the last type is the Israeli control over natural resources like water, which was used against the Palestinians by the government as a controlling tool (US Government, 2012).

A different approach for identifying the category of the Insurgency's group is based on the evaluation of the organizational settings of the fighting rebels. For example, Insurgents with a deeper political orientation usually struggle already from the start with a more complicated hierarchical structure than other types of fighters. But at the same time, thanks to the usage of shadow governments, as an alternative to military actions, these settings will allow to be more efficient in territorial control (US Government, 2012). On the contrary, a military organization of an insurgency will likely not rely directly on the mobilization of the citizens. Instead, the group will obtain this citizens’ reaction indirectly, which will take place only once the military action against the government will be successfully carried. A more traditional organization of an insurgents’ group will be mainly composed of members of already existing clans, tribes, religious group, or ethnic part of specific population subgroups. The last type of a potential structure for an Insurgency is called the “Urban-cellular", which will be mainly deployed in cities (Lacey, 2015). This approach leans on the strategy that relies on the concept of fighting without having a real form of hierarchy. That is because, their fighters will prefer to concentrate on terror attacks and on the contribution and cooperation generated between different autonomous fighting groups of the same insurgency (CIA. 2011).

Even though each insurgency is different from the others, there are still some similarities among them, for example when talking about the identical stages in their life cycles. Having said that, it is still important to acknowledge that not every insurgency attempt went through all the different stages and with a gradual process. Here below there is a description of each stage of every Insurgency.



- 1. The Preinsurgency Stage is the first and the most difficult to spot by the government because nearly all the insurgents’ activities will be conducted in an underground manner. Exactly at the beginning of the Insurgency life span thinks like leadership, group’s identity, organizational structure, common grievances, and universally recognized enemy, will eventually appear, and emerge. Further undertakings like the recruitment of new members, training sessions, and storage of military supplies will become key requirements for a successful rebel group (US Government, 2012).



- 2. The incipient Conflict Stage will start as soon as the group will begin to spread violence, an obvious way to communicate their presence. Most of the time these attacks are belittled by the government itself, which simply describes the insurgents as bandits or brutal terrorists. This middle stage will become crucial for the survival and the success of the insurgency itself. Despite the unit's weaknesses, they will have to make fell their presence mainly through military actions. Therefore, It is important for them to find the right balance between not overexposing themselves to the conflict, and still being able to provoke a violent escalation of the governmental forces. This approach instead of aiming towards open field battles will just have to rely on unconventional tactics such as kidnapping, assassinating, and leading terror attacks (CIA,2011).



- 3. The Open Insurgency Stage is the third potential stage of an Insurgency and is often associated with the certainty of the government about the existence of the rebels. What is happening from the political point of view, is that the insurgency group is challenging, in a palpable way, the government’s control and legitimacy over a territory From the military aspect of this phase, the group has most probably increased the attacks’ frequency, the effectiveness of their military actions, and the amount of violence carried during those attacks. In addition to that, to make it even more challenging to prevent the insurgents from reaching power, the fighters should have most likely increased in numbers and managed to have gained supplementary national support, as well as international one (CIA. 2011).

- 4. Resolution Stage is the fourth and last stage of any insurgency, which can also be achieved through different regressing periods. This phase can be summarized with through three potential outcomes (CIA. 2011). One of them is the Insurgents Victory which can be manifested by gaining control. An example is the independence of a territory from the government, or even by the withdraw of military forces of a foreign power. This scenario has the potential to lead to a chain effect, in which the new established government will not be further supported by the entire previous groups of victorious insurgents, because it may happen that the group will split and start to fight each other for power (Lacey, 2015). The Negotiated Settlement is another potential outcome that can be achieved, even though there will be many possible delays and false statements from the rebel’s side. It is also very likely that the civil conflict will persist for several years by unsatisfied members of the agreement, or that the peace efforts will be not sincere and used just as an excuse to reorganize themselves or simply to recover from previous losses. The last scenario is called the Government Victory and is characterized by a diminishing level of violence associated with a shrinking of the territorial gain of the insurgents. Another typical sign of this outcome is the decreasing level of international assistance and support for the insurgency itself (US Government, 2012).

3.3) Analysis of Counterinsurgency

- Definition

According to the US government, the Counterinsurgency is “Frequently referred to by the acronym COIN—is the combination of measures undertaken by a government to defeat an insurgency. Effective counterinsurgency integrates and synchronizes political, security, legal, economic, development, and psychological activities to create a holistic approach aimed at weakening the insurgents while bolstering the government’s legitimacy in the eyes of the population.” (US Government, 2012. page 1).

- COIN Approaches

The strategies used to fight the insurgents depend mainly on their target. it is important to mention that all approaches will lead to the use of violence against the terrorists, but they might differ in the aspect of emphasis (Lt. Col. McIntyre 2018). A selection of a specific type of COIN strategy, chosen by the government, will depend on different variables like the military history, the capacity of a nation, the culture, the insurgents' strategy, and much more. Nonetheless, an approach will most probably still change through time and become more and more adapted to the latest developments of the conflict. Here below there are the description of the 3 main COIN strategies.

- An Enemy-Centric path will focus on the destruction and eradication of the insurgents and their infrastructure. Typical operations of this strategy are the Search and Destroy, which will require heavy resilience. In this scenario, the government’s forces will have to continuously and meticulously pursuit their enemies.

- A Population-Centric strategy will put the focus on the population and their securitization to obtain the support needed for the government. It is important to mention that the destruction operations against the insurgents will still take place, but less than the previous approach. This procedure will expand through the territories like an oil spot, that means that once that a small area has been cleared from the insurgents, the government will start to clear the area and keep it under control. Once this will be achieved it will be vital to rebuild it, because the final objective is still regaining the support of the locals and avoid any insurgents come back.

- An Authoritarian approach will do its best to punish the insurgents and the locals which helped them. With this approach, it will be key not to fall into the disrespect of Human rights and the applying of overuse of force. This approach must make the cost of helping the insurgents so high that supporting them will become economically unfeasible. Originally, it was mainly used by colonial powers which stood inconsiderate regarding the international opinions (US Government, 2012).

3.4) The Ideology of ISIS

Main experts claim that the Islamic State is an outcome originated by the previous democratization process of the government of Baghdad. In the academic world is already a well-known fact that their actions have nothing to do with the real concept of Islam (Didi, 2015). On the contrary, the Islamic State’s ideology differs hugely from the traditional interpretation of Islam. One of the main divergences is the lack of tolerance toward other religions, especially against Jewish and Christians, which, referring to the Qur’an, these populations should receive a special status when living within an Islamic society (Jaynal, 2019). Another key difference between the Islamic State and the traditional concept of Islam is the broad rejections of any ideologies developed by the westerners. A few examples are the concepts of nationalism and modernism, all ideas that go against the IS’s faith. When it comes to democracy, this is considered as illicit because it will bring just a government of human beings, and not representatives of the Almighty God (Jaynal, 2019). The last contrast is based on the fact, that their brutal actions towards other Muslim, such as genocide, can only be explained through their own ideology and not through Muslim beliefs (Didi, 2015).



4) Theoretical framework

- Purpose of the Paper & Research Methodology

The first aim of the paper is to gather an alternative point of view of the recent events of the IS that took place in Syria and Iraq. About this phenomenal, there is still so much to learn and to understand therefore, this research will also have the task of identifying possible solutions to counter this type of radical groups (Major Azam, 2019). The paper will rely on qualitative content for the RQs, which hopefully will become useful for the academic world and the authorities which might encounter similar phenomenon and ideology. The findings, which will not just focus on the insurgency itself, will eventually help to understand better the concept behind the Islamic State.

Thanks to Mao’s theory about the concept of Revolutionary Warfare, it will be possible to obtain a bodywork that will make understanding in a deeper way the nature behind the rise of the Islamic State and the establishment of their Caliphate. The paper will proceed by analysing the level of attachment to Mao’s theory in the context of IS and refer to it as the dependent variable. Therefore, the null hypothesis will be associated with the invalidity of Mao’s theory to be applied in our scenario. Thanks to the Revolutionary Warfare theory, and to the possibility to interpret it as a guide, it will be possible to compare it to the ISIS scenario and assess things like the general strategy, the reasons behind their actions, and much more. In other words, due to a comparative analysis it will be conceivable to answer the Central Question.

On the other hand, the subordinate question will require a slightly different approach but still refer to the same theory. In this case, the comparison will take place in relation to the previous COIN strategies against ISIS and consequently identify some important, but disregarded, fields of studies.

- Data collection & Research Process

The research will rely on data coming from books, news reports, academic and journal articles that were written by different sources. For answering both questions a well historical structured data of the actors involved in the conflict will be required. The paper will focus primarily on events like operations, conquests, and propaganda.

In the beginning, it will be key to the success of the research paper to gather and filter the right information. The stage that comes after will rely on the comparison that will be required to establish the level of adherence between the ISIS and the theory developed by Mao. The last step will also focus on a further comparison that will allow the writing about the conclusion.

- Level of Adherence

The dependent variable is the level of cohesion of Mao’s theory in the context of the ISIS. This method will require criteria that will determine if this methodology can be considered as feasible for all the involved topics of the Research paper. The possible outcome for each main topic of Mao's theory will be examined in smaller subtopics and depending on the level of adherence to the theory, a different score will be put together for every single aspect developed by Mao Tse-tung (Major Azam, 2017). If the result is zero then there is no adherence, 1 if there is an acceptable level of adherence, and 2 for the full level. The list of main topics will concern argument such as:

1) Intelligence is a crucial aspect for the organization of guerrilla warfare, and according to Mao’s theory it is even considered as the most decisive factor for a successful conflict (Griffith, 1978). This type of information always involves a respectable amount of knowledge abo the surrounding areas and the weaknesses of the enemy’s army. For this topic, the reference metrics will regard arguments like organization, HUMINT, knowledge of the surrounding area, and military information about their enemies.

2) Violence is considered a key aspect to portray the military advance for the insurgents. Its usage is entailed in its strategy and it represents a crucial part of their struggle and propaganda (Marks, 2009). The topic of adherence to Mao’s theory will be violence within the propaganda, terrorism, and finally the strategical implications of violence (Major Azam, 2017).

3) Politics is probably the most key element of all the Insurgencies, that’s because fighting groups get united and become willing to use force and violence to obtain an own area of influence in the main governmental activities (Department of State et all, 2012). Fighters that participate in guerrilla military actions are always politically oriented and therefore exposed to propaganda. The subtopics which are mentioned in Mao’s theory and which will also be analysed in the research, concern aspects such as the organization, the propaganda, and the ideology within the doctrine.

4) Continuous Growth is another vital aspect of successful guerrilla warfare. According to Mao’s theory, that is because the main goal of the fighters is always to expand and recruit new members and gather more sources for their support. The topics which will be used to compare the context of the Levant with Mao's theory are the capacity of coordinating attacks towards exposed enemy positions, territorial enlargement, military equipment, and recruiting (Major Azam, 2017).

5) The structure of the Insurgents is very important because depending on their setting it will be predictable if the group will be able to conduct fluid warfare, or if it will be centralized and static. Historically, the insurgents are always coordinated in smaller and fast units. Mao declared in this regard that in his interpretation of warfare, smaller groups like the one deployed for the Communist revolution in China should always avoid exposing themselves by fighting in a static way. That is because only when being structured like this, it will eventually become impossible to carry lightning attacks. To see if ISIS units were decentralized as the theory of Mao’s theory suggests, topics like dynamic fights and surprising attacks will be analysed throughout the paper.

6) The organization also became a key element for Mao Tze-tung, especially to obtain secretly support from urban areas (Samuel, 2002). The metrics for this subtopic will be a simple analysis focused on the ability of ISIS< to be organized in such a way that would help them to keep control over difficult terrains.

7) Final Decision is the last element that needs to be compared because it represents the last stage before eventually becoming a conventional army. According to Mao’s theory, there are just two subtopics that need to be studied. The first is obviously to know if the Islamic State Caliphate became a conventional army. And second, if the IS negotiated with Baghdad and Damascus to illude them about their real intentions (Major Azam, 2017).



5) Conclusion



The Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham is an Insurgency group with a strong political orientation, which fought in the Syrian & Iraqi civil war for the establishment of the Caliphate and the Sharia law. The movement became successful in its task and obtained a large portion of the Arab territory, with Raqqa as it is capital. The IS movement was held responsible for the spreading of global terror and for taking part in different international civil conflicts. The group itself, through violent actions related to their political cause, managed to inspire confidence and alliances by other similar insurgency groups like Boko Haram and al-Shabab.

Thanks to previous researches, a similar approach was already adopted to establish if Warfare theories, like the one made by Mao Tse-tung, could already involve a respectable level of adherence with the Insurgency of Boko Haram in Nigeria. The outcome of those articles proved that it was potentially possible to identify more effective methods when fighting against radical rebels (Major Azam, 2017). The Islamic State, which has some similarities with the fighters of Boko Haram, has managed to take advantage of the Sunni grievances in those areas around Mosul, in which the public support was allegedly very little. The group was also held responsible for atrocities and genocides, which were done under the false interpretation of Islam.

There were two main local military powers that were allegedly capable to conduct a successful COIN strategy against ISIS. The government of Damascus did not fully appear to be willing to fight IS fighters as much as the Free Syrian Army, and this eventually leads to the establishment of the IS Caliphate. Baghdad tried continuously to fight Daesh, it also cooperated with the US Army and reached very good results in the COIN strategy called “sons of Iraq”. Unfortunately, due to political lies and false hope to the Sunni communities, the Counterinsurgency strategy failed and many tribes in return pledged allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq (Kaválek, 2015). Now that the Islamic State collapsed, the risk of an IS come back is still very realistic, especially because the situation of Iraq and Syria has nearly never been so critic and desperate. Because of this, it is important that governments do their best to prevent this outrageous scenario and maintain peace. A successful approach would be the one suggested from the theory of Mao Tse-tung, which will also help to prevent a further establishment of a radical Caliphate.