Bandwagoning with the Belt and Road: Russia's changing attitude towards the Chinese presence in Central Asia post-Crimea

• Název práce v češtině: Konformní pás a cesta: měnící se postoje Ruska k čínské přítomnosti ve Střední Asii
• Název v anglickém jazyce: Bandwagoning with the Belt and Road: Russia's changing attitude towards the Chinese presence in Central Asia post-Crimea
• Klíčová slova: Rusko, Čína, Střední Asie, Nová Hedvábná stezka, Ekonomický pás hedvábné stezky, „bandwagoning“, rovnováha sil
• Klíčová slova anglicky: Russia, China, Central Asia, Belt and Road, Silk Road Economic Belt, Bandwagoning, Balance of Power
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2017/2018
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Katedra ruských a východoevropských studií (23-KRVS)
• Vedoucí / školitel: PhDr. Jan Šír, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 16.05.2018
• Datum zadání: 16.05.2018
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 17.06.2019 09:30
• Místo konání obhajoby: Jinonice - U Kříže 8, Praha 5, J2066, Jinonice - místn. č. 2066
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 16.05.2019
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 17.06.2019
• Oponenti: doc. PhDr. Slavomír Horák, Ph.D.

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Předběžná náplň práce

Od pádu Sovětského svazu považuje Rusko státy Střední Asie za součást své výlučné sféry vlivu. V posledních letech však Čína zvýšila svou přítomnost v tomto regionu a výrazně investovala především do odvětví energetiky a dopravy. Příkladem těchto aktivit je projekt Nové Hedvábné stezky, známý pod názvem „Belt and Road Initiative“ (BRI), a konkrétně Ekonomický pás hedvábné stezky (Silk Road Economic Belt), který byl vytvořen v září 2013. Mnozí se domnívali, že zvýšená přítomnost Číny v tomto regionu a souběžné vytvoření ruské iniciativy v podobě Eurasijské ekonomické unie (EaEU) znamená střet těchto dvou velmocí. Vztahy mezi oběma velmocemi se však nezhoršily, právě naopak. V roce 2015 se vzhledem ke svým kontroverzním aktivitám na Ukrajině Rusko ocitlo v mezinárodním systému izolované a nečekaně iniciativu Číny pozitivně přijalo. Tato diplomová práce vysvětluje stále vstřícnější postoj Ruska vůči rostoucím investicím a vlivu Číny ve Střední Asii, a to navzdory horlivé ochraně ruské výlučné sféry vlivu v postsovětském prostoru a rozdílným zájmům obou velmocí v regionu. Diplomová práce se zabývá měnícím se postojem Ruska k čínské přítomnosti ve Střední Asii prostřednictvím případové studie porovnávající postoj Ruska k čínským aktivitám před a po anexi Krymu. Z hlediska realistické teorie diplomová práce ukazuje, že Rusko zaujalo postoj tzv. soft bandwagoning, tedy že se v zájmu zachování rovnováhy sil přidalo na stranu nové velmoci ve středoasijském regionu.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has considered the Central Asian states to be a part of its exclusive sphere of influence. In recent years, however, China has also increased its presence in the region, investing heavily in the energy and transportation sectors. This is exemplified by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), specifically its Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) component, which was launched in September 2013. As China increased its presence in the region, and Russia launched its own initiative, the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU), the two powers seemed to be on a collision course. However, relations between the two never deteriorated as predicted. Instead, the opposite has happened. In 2015, Russia found itself internationally isolated due to its controversial actions in Ukraine and unexpectedly embraced China’s initiative. This dissertation will seek to explain Russia’s increasingly accommodating attitude towards China’s growing investment and influence in Central Asia, despite Russia’s zealous protection of its exclusive sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space and the two powers’ diverging interests in the region. Using a case study comparing Russia’s stance towards the Chinese presence before and after the annexation of Crimea, this dissertation will examine Russia’s shifting stance through the lens of realist balance of power theory. Specifically, it will argue that Russia has engaged in ‘soft’ bandwagoning behaviour.