Migration in the Czech Republic: Geodemographic Patterns of Migration in the Czech Republic and their Forecastibility

• Název práce v češtině: Migrace v České republice: Geodemografické struktury migrace v České republice a jejich prognóza
• Název v anglickém jazyce: Migration in the Czech Republic: Geodemographic Patterns of Migration in the Czech Republic and their Forecastibility
• Klíčová slova: Migrace, geografická struktura, demografická struktura, Česká republika, prognózování, populační prognóza
• Klíčová slova anglicky: Migration, geographic structure, demographic structure, Czech Republic, forecasting, population forecast
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2023/2024
• Typ práce: disertační práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Katedra demografie a geodemografie (31-360)
• Vedoucí / školitel: RNDr. Tomáš Kučera, CSc.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno a potvrzeno stud. odd.
• Datum přihlášení: 24.04.2024
• Datum zadání: 24.04.2024
• Datum potvrzení stud. oddělením: 26.04.2024
• Konzultanti: Iryna Kurylo

Zásady pro vypracování

MD360P07A Demografická analýza I
MD360P09 Populační prognózy
MPGS0093 Migrace obyvatelstva pro PGS

Seznam odborné literatury

Migration Modelling and Forecasting:
Bijak, J. (2010). Forecasting international migration in Europe: A Bayesian view (Vol. 24). Springer Science Business Media. -Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View | SpringerLink
Bijak, J., Disney, G., Findlay, A. M., Forster, J. J., Smith, P. W., Wiśniowski, A. (2019). Assessing time series models for forecasting international migration: Lessons from the United Kingdom. Journal of Forecasting, 38(5), 470-487. -https://doi.org/10.1002/FOR.2576.
Böhme, M. H., Gröger, A., Stöhr, T. (2020). Searching for a better life: Predicting international migration with online search keywords. Journal of Development Economics, 142, 102347. -https://doi.org/10.1145/2567948.2576930.
Cappelen, Å., Skjerpen, T., Tønnessen, M. (2015). Forecasting immigration in official population projections using an econometric model. International Migration Review, 49(4), 945-980.-https://doi.org/10.1111/imre.12092.
Cappelen, Å., Skjerpen, T., Tønnessen, M. (2015). Forecasting Immigration in Official Population Projections Using an Econometric Model 1. International Migration Review, 49, 945 - 980.https://doi.org/10.1111/imre.12092.
De Beer, J. (2008). Forecasting international migration: Time series projections vs argument-based forecasts. International migration in Europe, 283-306. -https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/117861
de Valk, H. A., Acostamadiedo, E., Guan, Q., Melde, S., Mooyaart, J., Sohst, R. R., Tjaden, J. (2022). How to predict future migration: Different methods explained and compared. Introduction to migration studies. Rotterdam: Springer Cham, 463-482. -https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/56989/1/978-3-030-92377-8.pdf#page=455
Demirel, D. F., Basak, M. (2019). A fuzzy bi-level method for modeling age-specific migration. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 68, 100664. -https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SEPS.2018.11.001.
Disney, G., Wiśniowski, A., Forster, J. J., Smith, P. W., Bijak, J. (2015). Evaluation of existing migration forecasting methods and models: Report examining and assessing the various analytical approaches to migration forecasting.-FULL_TEXT.PDF (manchester.ac.uk)
Fuchs, J., Söhnlein, D., Vanella, P. (2021). Migration forecasting—Significance and approaches. Encyclopedia, 1(3), 689-709. -Encyclopedia | Free Full-Text | Migration Forecasting—Significance and Approaches (mdpi.com)
Garcia, A. J., Pindolia, D. K., Lopiano, K. K., Tatem, A. J. (2015). Modeling internal migration flows in sub-Saharan Africa using census microdata. Migration Studies, 3(1), 89-110.-https://doi.org/10.1093/MIGRATION/MNU036.
Hajj, H. M. (1975). Internal migration models and population forecasts. Journal of the Urban Planning and Development Division, 101(2), 201-215. -Internal Migration Models and Population Forecasts | Journal of the Urban Planning and Development Division | Vol 101, No 2
Isserman, A. M., Plane, D. A., Rogerson, P. A., Beaumont, P. M. (1985). Forecasting interstate migration with limited data: A demographic-economic approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 80(390), 277-285. -https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1985.10478109.
Jandová, M., Paleta, T. (2015). Gravity models of internal migration–The Czech case study. Review of Economic Perspectives, 15(1), 3-14.
Koser, K., Laczko, F., Solomon, M. K. (eds.). (2010). World Migratiuon Report 2010; The Future of Migration: Building Capacities for Change. Geneva, IOM.- wmr_2010_english.pdf (iom.int)
Kupiszewski, M., Bijak, J., Kicinger, A. (2012). The use of international migration theories in migration forecasting—a practical approach. In International migration and the future of populations and labour in Europe (pp. 35-55). Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8948-9_3.
Muttarak, R. (2021). Applying concepts and tools in demography for estimating, analyzing, and forecasting forced migration. Journal on Migration and Human Security, 9(3), 182-196. -https://doi.org/10.1177/23315024211042850.
Ovchynnikova, O., Nahornova, O., Mylko, I., Begun, S., Buniak, N., Kolenda, N. (2020, September). Forecasting Regional Migration Flows. In 2020 10th International Conference on Advanced Computer Information Technologies (ACIT) (pp. 165-169). IEEE. -.
Raymer, J., Wiśniowski, A. (2018). Applying and testing a forecasting model for age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration. Population studies, 72(3), 339-355. -
Stepanek, M. (2022). Sectoral Impacts of International Labour Migration and Population Ageing in the Czech Republic. Computational Economics, 60(2), 375-400. -Sectoral Impacts of International Labour Migration and Population Ageing in the Czech Republic | Computational Economics (springer.com)
Stillwell, J. (2005). Inter-regional migration modelling-a review and assessment. -https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/117857
Van der Gaag, N., Van Imhoff, E., Van Wissen, L. (2000). Internal migration scenarios and regional population projections for the European Union. International Journal of Population Geography, 6(1), 1-19. -https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/117861
Van Imhoff, E., Van der Gaag, N., Van Wissen, L., Rees, P. (1997). The selection of internal migration models for European regions. International Journal of Population Geography, 3(2), 137-159. -The selection of internal migration models for European regions - van Imhoff - 1997 - International Journal of Population Geography - Wiley Online Library
Van Wissen, L. J., Gaag, N., Rees, P., Stillwell, J. (2005). In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries-Demographic versus economic-geographical approaches. -https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/117861
Vanella, P., Hellwagner, T., Deschermeier, P. (2023). Parsimonious Stochastic Forecasting of International and Internal Migration on the NUTS-3 level—An Outlook of Regional Depopulation Trends in Germany. Vienna Yearb. Popul. Res, 21, 361-415. -https://doi.org/10.1553/10.1553/p-5pn2-fmn8.
Weber, H. (2020). How well can the migration component of regional population change be predicted? A machine learning approach applied to German municipalities. Comparative Population Studies-Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 45, 143-178. -How Well Can the Migration Component of Regional Population Change be Predicted? A Machine Learning Approach Applied to German Municipalities
Welch, N. G., Raftery, A. E. (2022). Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(35), e2203822119. -https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203822119.
Willekens, F. (2018). Towards causal forecasting of international migration. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 16, 199-218. -https://doi.org/10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S199.
Zagheni, E., Garimella, V. R. K., Weber, I., State, B. (2014, April). Inferring international and internal migration patterns from twitter data. In Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on world wide web (pp. 439-444). -https://doi.org/10.1145/2567948.2576930.
Zhang, J. L., Bryant, J. (2020). Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in Iceland. Developments in demographic forecasting, 193-215. -https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/42565/2020_Book_DevelopmentsInDemographicForec.pdf#page=197

Migration Theory:
Arango, J. (2000). Explaining migration: a critical view, International Social Science Journal, Vol. 52, Issue 165: pp. 283-296.
Boyle, P., Halfacree, K., Robinson, V. (1998). Exploring Contemporary Migration. Harlow, Pearson, Prentice Hall
Drbohlav, D. Uherek, Z. (2007). Reflexe migračních teorií. Geografie, 112, č. 2, s. 125-141.Uherek-Teorie.pdf (cuni.cz)
Hoffmann-Nowotny, H. J. (1997). World Society and the Future of International Migration: A Theoretical Perspective. In: Immigration into Western Societies: Problems and Policies. Ucarer, E.M., Puchala, D.J. (eds). London and Washington, Pinter, s. 95-117.
Lewitt, P., Jaworsky, B. N. (2007). Transantional Migration Studies: Past Development and Future Trends. Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 33, pp. 129 - 156.
Massey, D. S. et al. (1993). Theories of International Migration: Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, Vol. 19, No. 3, September, s. 431-466.

Migration in the Czech Republic:
Čermák, Z. (1999). Distinctive features of migration in the Czech Republic as part of the transformation of Central European countries. Hampl, M. a kol.: Geography of Societal Transformation in the Czech Republic. Katedra sociální geografie a regionálního rozvoje, Přírodovědecká fakulta Univerzity Karlovy, Praha, 209-222. (MIGPOPIN.pdf (cuni.cz))
Drbohlav, D. (2003). Immigration and the Czech Republic (with a Special Focus on the Foreign Labor Force) 1. International Migration Review, 37, 194 - 224.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2003.tb00134.x.
Drbohlav, D. (2012). Patterns of immigration in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. European Immigrations: Trends, Structures and Policy Implication, 179-209.(PDF) 8. Patterns of immigration in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland: Trends, Structures and Policy Implications (researchgate.net)
Drbohlav, D., Medová, L., Čermák, Z., Janská, E., Čermáková, D., Dzúrová, D. (2010): Migrace a (i)migranti v Česku. Kdo jsme, odkud přicházíme, kam jdeme? Praha, Slon.
Halás, M., Klapka, P., Tonev, P. (2016). The use of migration data to define functional regions: The case of the Czech Republic. Applied Geography, 76, 98-105.https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APGEOG.2016.09.010.
Hubl, R. (2020). Vnitřní migrace obyvatelstva ve východní části České republiky: regionálně--geografická analýza. Dizertační práce. Přírodovědecká fakulta Masarykovy Univerzity, Brno. (Disertace_Hubl.pdf (muni.cz))
Koukalová, J. (2023). Population Development in the Czech Republic in 2022. Demografie.https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0336.
Kupiszewski, M., Drbohlav, D., Rees, P., Durham, H. (1998). Internal migration and regional population dynamics in Europe: Czech case study. -https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/5034/
Okolski, M. (ed.) (2012). European Immigrations; Trends, Structures and Policy Implications. (IMISCOE Research), Amsterdam, Amsterdam University Press.
Pakši, D., Vontroba, J., Šimek, M. (2023). Regional Migration in the Czech Republic: Economic Factors Are the Key. Politická ekonomie, 71(3), 267-290. (Regional-Migration-in-the-Czech-Republic-Economic-Factors-Are-the-Key.pdf (researchgate.net))
Stojanov, R., Bureš, O., Duží, B. (2017). Migration and development policies: The state of affairs before the 2015 European migration crises in the Czech Republic and its current implications. Communist and Post-communist Studies, 50, 169-181.https://doi.org/10.1016/J.POSTCOMSTUD.2017.06.002. (
Vobecká, J., Piguet, V. (2012). Fertility, Natural Growth and Migration in the Czech Republic: An Urban-Suburban-Rural Gradient Analysis of Long-Term Trends and Recent Reversals. Population Space and Place, 18, 225-240.https://doi.org/10.1002/PSP.698.

Others:
Bastia, T., Skeldon, R. (2020). Routledge Handbook of Migration and Development. Abingdon, New York, Routledge. Internal-Migration-and-Development-A-Perspective-from-China-in-Tanja-Bastia-and-Ronald-Skeldon-eds-Routledge-Handbook-of-Migration-and-Development-Routledge-pp567-584.pdf (researchgate.net)
Benerí A, L., Deere, C. D., Kabeer, N. (2012). Gender and International Migration: Globalization, Development, and Governance, Feminist Economics 18(2), pp. 1-33.
Black, R., Adger, W, N., Arnell, N. W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., Thomas, D. S. G. (2011). The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environmental Change 21S, S3-S11.
Castles, S., Miller, M.J.(2009). The Age of Migration. New York, The Guilford Press.
Fassmann, H., Reeger, U., Sievers, W. (2009). Statistics and Reality; Concepts and Measurements of Migration in Europe. Amsterdam, Amsterdam University Press (IMISCOE Research). -https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/35302/340025.pdf
Gorny, A., Ruspini, P. (2004). Migration in the New Europe, East-West Revisited. New York, Palgrave Macmillan.
Kaczan, D. J., Orgill-Meyer, J. (2020). The impact of climate change on migration: a synthesis of recent empirical insights. Climatic Change, 158(3), 281-300. - BRETELL, C.B. - HOLLIFIELD, J.F. (2000): Migration Theory, Talking across Disciplines. New York, Routledge. -https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02560-0.
Kupiszewska, D., Kupiszewski, M., Martí, M., Ródenas, C. (2010). Possibilities and limitations of comparative quantitative research on international migration flows. Working Paper No. 04, PROMINSTAT project. -http://www.prominstat.eu/drupal/?q=system/files/Working+Paper+04+Migration+flows.pdf(Possibilities-and-limitations-of-comparative-quantitative-research-on-international-migration-flow.pdf (researchgate.net)
Triandafyllidou, A. (ed.) (2018). Handbook of Migration and Globalisation. Cheltenham (UK), Edward Elgar.

Předběžná náplň práce

Souborná teoreticko-metodologická studie s empirickýcm výstupem poplatná potřebám analýzy a prognózování migrace pro potřeby prognózování populačního vývoje v Česku na celostátní a regionální úrovn

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

A comprehensive theoretical-methodological study with empirical outputs for the needs of migration analysis and forecasting for the purposes of forecasting population development in the Czech Republic at the national and regional level.