Financial Distress Prediction in Digital Finance Platforms

• Název práce v češtině: Predikce finanční tísně na platformách digitálních financí
• Název v anglickém jazyce: Financial Distress Prediction in Digital Finance Platforms
• Klíčová slova: FinTech, predikce selhání, CAMELS, logistická regrese, model uspořádané odezvy, ROC, vzácná událost, BMA
• Klíčová slova anglicky: FinTech, failure prediction, CAMELS, logistic regression, ordered response model, ROC, rare event, BMA
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2022/2023
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
• Vedoucí / školitel: prof. Ing. Evžen Kočenda, M.A., Ph.D., DSc.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 05.05.2023
• Datum zadání: 05.05.2023
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 19.06.2024 09:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: Opletalova, O206, místnost. č. 206
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 29.04.2024
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 19.06.2024
• Oponenti: prof. PhDr. Ladislav Krištoufek, Ph.D.

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Předběžná náplň práce

Výzkumná otázka: Jaké faktory nejvíce přispívají k finanční tísni FinTech firem: kapitálová přiměřenost, provozní činnosti nebo ziskovost?
Tato práce se snaží zodpovědět tuto otázku pomocí logistického modelu a analýzou účetních dat 973 FinTech firem po celém světě v letech 2018 až 2023. Analýza také bere v úvahu nefinanční proměnné a robustnost je testována pomocí modelu uspořádané odezvy a metody Bayesovského průměrování modelů. Výsledky naznačují, že během krizí je finanční tíseň FinTech firem ovlivněna především ziskovostí a provozními činnostmi, přičemž kapitálová přiměřenost hraje méně významnou roli.
Hypotéza č. 1: Ukazatel kapitálové přiměřenosti není nejúčinnějším ukazatelem pro vysvětlení selhání FinTech firem.
Hypotéza č. 2: Jiné kontrolní proměnné, jako je velikost společnosti, věk společnosti, soukromé vlastnictví a umístění ve vyspělých zemích, významně neovlivňují finanční tíseň FinTech firem.
Hypotéza č. 3: Logistické modely mohou poskytnout relativně přesné vyhodnocení rizika selhání FinTech firem.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

Research question: What factors contribute most to the financial distress of FinTech firms: capital adequacy, operating activities, or profitability?
This paper tries to answer this question by using a logistic model and analyzing the accounting-based data of 973 FinTech firms worldwide between 2018 and 2023. The analysis also considers non-financial variables, and the robustness checks are performed using the ordered response model and the Bayesian model averaging method. The results suggest that during crises, the financial distress of FinTech firms is mainly influenced by profitability and operating activities, with capital adequacy playing a less significant role.
Hypothesis #1: The capital adequacy ratio is not the most effective indicator for explaining the failure of FinTech firms.
Hypothesis #2: Other control variables, such as company size, company age, private ownership, and location in developed countries, do not significantly influence the financial distress of FinTech firms.
Hypothesis #3: Logistic models can provide relatively accurate evaluations of the failure risk of FinTech firms.