Targeted Killing as a Counterterrorism Instrument: Evaluating Impacts on The Islamic State and Al Qaeda
| Název práce v češtině: | Cílené zabíjení jako nástroj boje proti terorismu: Hodnocení dopadů na Islámský stát a Al-Káidu |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | Targeted Killing as a Counterterrorism Instrument: Evaluating Impacts on The Islamic State and Al Qaeda |
| Klíčová slova: | Islámský stát, Terorismus, al-Káida, cílené zabíjení, dekapitace vedení, operační kapacita, protiterorismus |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | Islamic State, terrorism, al-Qaeda, counterterrorism, leadership decapitation, operational capability, targeted killing |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2021/2022 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Katedra bezpečnostních studií (23-KBS) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | prof. Mgr. Oldřich Bureš, Ph.D., M.A. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 09.05.2022 |
| Datum zadání: | 09.05.2022 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 22.06.2023 10:00 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Jinonice - Nový Kampus, B329, 329, seminární místnost IPS |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 11.04.2023 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 22.06.2023 |
| Oponenti: | prof. PhDr. RNDr. Nikola Hynek, Ph.D., M.A. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| Alston, Philip (2010). Report of the Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions. United Nations. 28. 5. 2010 (Available at: https://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/docs/14session/A.HRC.14.24.Add6.pdf, 30. 4. 2022).
Bures, Oldrich – Hawkins, Andrew J. (2020). Israeli targeted killing operations before and during the Second Intifada: a contextualized comparison. Small Wars & Insurgencies 31 (3), pp. 569–593. Byman, Daniel (2006). Do Targeted Killings Work?. Foreign Affairs 85 (2), pp. 95–111. Carvin, Stephanie (2012). The Trouble with Targeted Killing. Security Studies 21 (3), pp. 529–555. Gunneflo, Markus (2016). Targeted Killing. Cambridge University Press. Hajjar, Lisa (2017). A Comparative Analysis of Israeli and U.S. Targeted Killing Policies and Legal Challenges against Them. In: Parks, Lisa et al. Life in the Age of Drone Warfare. Duke University Press. pp. 59–88. Johnston, Patrick B. (2012). Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns. International Security 36 (4), pp. 47–79. Jordan, Jenna (2014). Attacking the Leader, Missing the Mark: Why Terrorist Groups Survive Decapitation Strikes. International Security 38 (4), pp. 7–38. Kirchofer, Charles (2016). Targeted Killings and Compellence: Lessons from the Campaign against Hamas in the Second Intifada. Perspectives on Terrorism 10 (3), pp. 16–25. Klein, Graig R. (2022). The Leader of ISIS is Dead, but are Targeted Killings Effective?. International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. 10. 2. 2022 (Available at: https://icct.nl/publication/leader-isis-dead-targeted-killings/, 10. 4. 2022). Mannes, Aaron (2008). Testing the Snake Head Strategy: Does Killing or Capturing Its Leaders Reduce a Terrorist Group's Activity?. The Journal of International Policy Solutions 2008 (9), pp. 40–49. Perl, Raphael (2007). Combating Terrorism: The Challenge of Measuring Effectiveness. Congressional Research Service. 12. 3. 2007 (Available at: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/terror/RL33160.pdf, 18. 4. 2022). Phillips, Brian J. (2015). How Does Leadership Decapitation Affect Violence? The Case of Drug Trafficking Organizations in Mexico. The Journal of Politics 77 (2), pp. 324–336. Price, Brian C. (2012). Targeting Top Terrorists: How Leadership Decapitation Contributes to Counterterrorism. International Security 36 (4), pp. 9–46. Regan, Mitt (2022). Drone Strike–Analyzing the Impacts of Targeted Killing. Palgrave Pivot: Washington. University of Maryland (2022). The Global Terrorism Database (Available at: https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd, 19. 4. 2022). Van Dongen, Teun (2009). Break it Down: An Alternative Approach to Measuring Effectiveness in Counterterrorism. Economics of Security (Available at: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.354161.de/diw_econsec0023.pdf, 13. 4. 2022). Yaoren, Kenneth Yeo (2019). Leadership Decapitation and the Impact on Terrorist Groups. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses 11 (3), pp. 7–12. |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Motivation
There are many methods for dealing with terrorism today, many of them non-violent. One particular counterterrorism policy stands out due to its high-risk nature and that is targeted killing. This instrument is subject of ongoing discussion about its effectiveness, unintended consequences and damage it sows. Along with Israel, The United States is one of few actors that implemented this instrument into its counterterrorism strategy and they use it widely to this day, even though this method has many drawbacks and almost no guarantees that it will cause the intended effect. The scope of this work will be to assess the outcomes of targeted killings of two leaders of different terrorist groups throughout history in regards to how they impacted the groups and their operational capabilities, while also considering some other factors, such as political and societal footprint of these actions. This will be achieved through an analysis of two particular cases. The first case will be the killing of the Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019 and the second will be considering the death of Osama Bin Laden under the Operation Neptune Spear in 2011. Both cases are believed to be key events for the development of targeted killings as well as for the leadership decapitation theory that will be applied and verified in this thesis. It will be one of the outcomes of this work to provide relevant arguments and proofs for aforementioned claims. Current research on the topic of targeted killings concentrated mostly on the Israeli way of using this tactic and its operational development as well as moral and legal debates surrounding it. The research gap that is intended to be filled within this study is the effect that targeted killings have on the Islamic State when carried out by the United States, considering their experience with fighting al-Qaeda and decapitating its leaders. It is also expected to contribute to the existing research about measuring the success and effectivity of targeted killings, as there is no generally accepted method that could be used for evaluating effects of decapitating leadership of terrorist organisations. Furthermore, this research might help with clarifying some adverse effects that these strikes might have, as the academic mainstream suggests. Literature Review The phenomenon of targeted killings has been thoroughly studied mainly in regards to the Israeli deployment of this technique. The work of Daniel Byman (2006), which focused on the Second Intifada and how the effectiveness of targeted killings progressed during this period, proves very useful for this research as his findings appear to be applicable also on the approach of the United States. Byman concludes that targeted killings helped to change the behavior of Hamas during the Second Intifada. This argument is further supported by Charles Kirchofer (2016), who examined targeted killings as an instrument for achieving compellence and whether it is even possible to deter terrorist groups. Both Byman and Kirchofer agree that Israel managed to reach some goals through targeted killings, although it is important not to use them in certain scenarios, such as during ceasefires, as they easily become counterproductive. Bryan C. Price (2012) analysed how targeted killings contribute to the fight against terrorism through the leadership decapitation theory and explains why it is very effective because of the unique organisational structures that terrorist groups have. Similar knowledge provides the text of Patrick B. Johnston (2012), who examined this theory within the field of counterinsurgency. Further research on theoretical background is provided by Mannes (2008), who tested whether killing terrorist leaders decreases the group's activity through the Snake Head Strategy. Current research about the effect of targeted killings on the Islamic State in particular is not that vast as studies about how Hamas, for example, was affected by Israeli strikes on their leadership. The death of al-Baghdadi's successor, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, is very recent and databases of terrorist attacks do not yet contain data about terrorist attacks and violence that followed this event, hence there is an absence of research about this particular targeted killing. However, some authors managed to analyse the short-term fallout of al-Baghdadi’s assassination. One of them is Klein (2022), who pointed out that recent targeted killings might have positive short-term impacts on ISIS, but a surge of radicalisation might also follow. Very comprehensive view on the legal history of targeted killings is provided by Markus Gunneflo’s (2016) book, because the international law needs to be considered carefully and the debate about the legal basis of targeted killings is still alive. Legal challenges of targeting high value individuals are also developed by Lisa Hajjar’s (2017) comparative analysis of Israeli and U.S. targeted killing policies and their shortcomings. Mitt Regan (2022) offered focus on drone strikes and targeted killing done by the United States and analysed impacts both on terrorists and civilians. The debate on how to measure the success of counterterrorism policies has been vast and it will be thoroughly covered and discussed in this work. Van Dongen (2009) in his text offers some alternatives as he believes that regular measures suffer from many difficulties. Further shortcomings of measuring success of targeted killings are described by Carvin (2012), she confirms that there is no general consensus about the definition of what constitutes a success in counterterrorism. Theoretical Framework Leadership decapitation theory suggests that removing the leader of an organization has various negative impacts on the group, ranging from leadership vacuum and the absence of a charismatic leader to operational disadvantage due to expected transfer of resources from offense to defense and protection of important figures (Price 2012: 9–10). Leadership decapitation theory will be tested in this case study due to its high compatibility with targeted killings, since the primary target in both selected cases of targeted killing was the leader of the particular organisation at that given time and also an important figure in the history of the terrorist group. Some authors also point out that leadership decapitation might be in some cases counterproductive and can in fact strengthen the subjected group and cause further radicalisation (see Jordan 2014: 7; Yaoren 2019: 7–8). Substantial part of this work will consist of addressing the debate about this theory, so that both positive and negative aspects of leadership decapitation are examined. There are also other concepts suitable for the study of targeted killings and they will be mentioned briefly, although they will not be applied. These are for example deterrence by punishment, the boomerang effect in counterterrorism or compellence. Leadership decapitation theory is a well established theory that was widely used in other research and was therefore tested on many different subjects, although not only on terrorist organisations, but also on such groups as drug trafficking cartels (Phillips 2015). Thus, there are a lot of findings that were made regarding this theory that can be beneficial for this work. Since this research will analyze targeted killings of leaders of terrorist organisations, it is important to define these terms so that the inferences made within this work will be accurate and will not be misinterpreted. Based on the outline by Alston (2010: 4–5), targeted killing will be defined as a premeditated usage of deadly force against strategically valuable individuals which is authorized by the government during an exceptional situation such as armed conflict or fight against terrorism. As for leadership, it is a fact that al-Baghdadi and Bin laden were both in positions of leadership in their organization. They were both important decision-makers and persons of high authority. Their position coincides with Jordan's (2009: 733) definition of a leader of terrorist organization. According to her, it is “a member of the upper echelon who holds a position of authority within the organization”. This does not necessarily mark strictly the person that is on the pinnacle of the hierarchy, it can possibly be a skilled bomb-maker, but in the cases of this research they were the highest ranking members. Methodology The impact and success of targeted killings of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Osama Bin Laden will be researched through multiple case study consisting of two separate case studies, each of which will analyse the targeted killing of one terrorist leader and its consequences. The case studies will have an explanatory character, within which theory of leadership decapitation will be tested and verified on two samples. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches will be combined in this research. Quantitative approach will be utilised in a form of descriptive statistics regarding the work with data on terrorist attacks. Methods of executing specific targeted killings will be analyzed qualitatively, as well as some metrics of success that examine political and societal consequences of these actions. Data for this research will be drawn primarily from public databases, archives of academic texts and news articles. Global Terrorism Database (GTD), maintained by the University of Maryland (2022), will serve as the key dataset regarding incidents of terrorism. Nonetheless, it must be noted that even though it is so far the biggest public database on terrorism, it currently features data only until the end of 2019, although it is expected to be updated with data from 2020, as it is usually updated on a yearly basis. Hence, the time period for measuring the success of targeted killings will be in both cases set for six months prior to the attack and six months after the decapitation took place in order to be able to cover more complex elements rather than just the immediate impacts of the strikes. However, it is also possible that the database will not get updated. In that case, this analysis would have to work only with short-term impacts of killing al-Baghdadi, as he was targeted in late October of 2019. For that reason, the time period for measuring the success of targeted killings would be in both cases set only for two months prior to the attack and two months after the execution of the strike to maintain consistency and to be able to reach comparable results. Second caveat of the GTD that is worth mentioning are unclaimed attacks, that the database flags as if they were perpetrated by the designated terrorist group based on reports of different sources. This factor will be considered in this analysis and these attacks will be subjected to closer scrutiny and if the involvement of the group cannot be verified from multiple trustworthy sources, they will not be accounted for. As Carvin (2012: 545) points out, setting universal and incontestable criteria for measuring success of targeted killings is impossible. It is thus appropriate to consider a broader set of criteria, rather than overly relying on one metric. Moreover, Bures and Hawkins (2020: 575–576) highlight that studies of targeted killings that considered only data after the decapitation was carried out might have been too restrictive as there was no certainty that these post-operational events related to a particular targeted killing. For that reason this study will be also considering other events that might have impacted the data, such as other related counterterrorism measures, political affairs or the possibility of preparations of more sophisticated attacks which could potentially cause a delay in the frequency of terrorist attacks, as Perl (2007: 2) suggested. Drawing inspiration from aforementioned pieces of literature that studied the success of targeted killings, this research will use a combination of quantitative and qualitative indicators. Terrorist attacks during the defined time period will be measured based on criteria that will help to analyse capabilities of the given terrorist organization to inflict damage and whether targeted killing affects this ability. This data will be collected both prior to the decapitation and also after it was carried out to highlight a trend. Quantitative indicators subjected to analysis will be the frequency of attacks and casualty rate, as they can illustrate a general direction of violence that is either rising or declining. Among this data will be also weapon type, which – if available – can signal a shift of resources if there is for example a pattern of using explosives that is suddenly exchanged for small firearms or cold weapons (Klein 2022). In addition to these indicators, qualitative evaluation of governmental and societal response to the decapitation will also be a significant part of the estimation of success. The second set of indicators will be researched through the level of popular support of this counterterrorism measure in the targeted country as well as in the United States and if there was an observable impact on society and political situation, possibly in the form of protests or diplomatic actions. All of the aforestated analytical methods and indicators will be used for answering the research question, which is as follows: how effective were targeted killings of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, former leader of the Islamic State, and Osama Bin Laden, former leader of al Qaeda, and how these strikes impacted the groups and their operational capabilities? Suggested Thesis Structure 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 3 Leadership Decapitation Theory 3.1 Previous Research on Leadership Decapitation Theory 3.2 Discussion About Justification of Targeted Killings 4 Methodology 5 First Case Study: The Killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi 6 Second Case Study: The Killing of Osama Bin Laden 7 Cross-Case Conclusions and Findings 8.1 Applying Leadership Decapitation Theory and Modificating it 9 Conclusion |