Workforce Composition Effects on Covid-19 Spread: a SIR model and an Application to the Czech Regions

• Název práce v češtině: Modelování vlivu struktury pracovní síly na šíření Covid-19: Model SIR a aplikace pro kraje v ČR
• Název v anglickém jazyce: Workforce Composition Effects on Covid-19 Spread: a SIR model and an Application to the Czech Regions
• Klíčová slova: SIR, společenský odstup, Covid-19
• Klíčová slova anglicky: SIR, social distancing, Covid-19
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2020/2021
• Typ práce: bakalářská práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
• Vedoucí / školitel: doc. PhDr. Martin Gregor, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 06.09.2021
• Datum zadání: 06.09.2021
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 07.09.2022 09:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: Opletalova - Opletalova 26, O206, Opletalova - místn. č. 206
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 01.08.2022
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 07.09.2022
• Oponenti: doc. PhDr. Julie Chytilová, Ph.D.

Zásady pro vypracování

Research question and motivation

This thesis will use the epidemiological SIR model for a well-mixed population to explore how different work-force compositions affect the spread of a virus. To this end, I will utilize game theory to model willingness to engage in social distancing behavior. If a person chooses to engage in social distancing behavior, they decrease their risk of infection, but incur costs such as diminishing income, loss of employment or psychological costs of staying at home and loosing social contact. This means that for part of a population, it may be more profitable to violate social distancing laws, although this may not bring the socially optimal outcome.

The covid-19 pandemic has enormous effect on peoples lives and the global economy. It is important to study how the infection spreads and what factors influence it in order to develop better suppression in the future. The composition of a workforce influences not only the speed at which the virus spreads, but also the economic damages incurred. Regions with higher amounts of high-physical-proximity and low work-from-home jobs experience greater surge of unemployment.

Seznam odborné literatury

Internal and External Effects of Social Distancing in a Pandemic Maryam Farboodi, Gregor Jarosch, and Robert Shimer NBER Working Paper No. 27059 April 2020, Revised July 2020

Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies? Simon Mongey, Laura Pilossoph, and Alex Weinberg NBER Working Paper No. 27085 May 2020, Revised March 2021

Civic Capital and Social Distancing during the Covid-19 Pandemic John M. Barrios, Efraim Benmelech, Yael V. Hochberg, Paola Sapienza, and Luigi Zingales NBER Working Paper No. 27320 June 2020

Reluga TC (2010) Game Theory of Social Distancing in Response to an Epidemic.

Stoddard M, Van Egeren D, Johnson KE, et al. Individually optimal choices can be collectively disastrous in COVID-19 disease control. BMC Public Health. 2021;21(1):832.

Předběžná náplň práce

Contribution

Former research has included social distancing compliance into their models using a game theory framework. Some have included it as an exogenous variable, examining social distancing measure efficiency for different levels of compliance. Other research has included it as an endogenous variable dependent on investment into social distancing.
In this thesis, I will model social distancing as a binary choice dependent on probability of infection and the individual economic cost. The individual economic cost will depend on which part of the workforce the individual belongs to. The compliance is thus an endogenous variable that will change over time. There has been research examining how social distancing affects different jobs and on factors influencing compliance. This thesis will try to take into account the different workforce distributions of Czech regions and explain through them the differences between the spread of infection in different regions.

Methodology

In this thesis, I will use data from ČSÚ (Czech Statistical Office) to estimate the workforce composition of regions in the Czech Republic for 2020 and 2021. For epidemiological data, such as number of infected or reproduction number R, I will use data from MZČR (Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic). The epidemiological model used will be SIR for a well-mixed population. The engagement in social distancing behavior is taken as a variable which decreases the transmission rate. The workforce composition will be used to derive how many people belong to groups based on their cost of distancing.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

Contribution

Former research has included social distancing compliance into their models using a game theory framework. Some have included it as an exogenous variable, examining social distancing measure efficiency for different levels of compliance. Other research has included it as an endogenous variable dependent on investment into social distancing.
In this thesis, I will model social distancing as a binary choice dependent on probability of infection and the individual economic cost. The individual economic cost will depend on which part of the workforce the individual belongs to. The compliance is thus an endogenous variable that will change over time. There has been research examining how social distancing affects different jobs and on factors influencing compliance. This thesis will try to take into account the different workforce distributions of Czech regions and explain through them the differences between the spread of infection in different regions.

Methodology

In this thesis, I will use data from ČSÚ (Czech Statistical Office) to estimate the workforce composition of regions in the Czech Republic for 2020 and 2021. For epidemiological data, such as number of infected or reproduction number R, I will use data from MZČR (Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic). The epidemiological model used will be SIR for a well-mixed population. The engagement in social distancing behavior is taken as a variable which decreases the transmission rate. The workforce composition will be used to derive how many people belong to groups based on their cost of distancing.