China´s One Belt and One Road Initiative and its potential for the tourism industries in Africa, Asia and Europe: a gravity model approach

• Název práce v češtině: Čínská iniciativa pro jeden pás a jednu cestu a její potenciál pro cestovní ruch v Africe, Asii a Evropě: přístup založený na gravitačním modelu
• Název v anglickém jazyce: China´s One Belt and One Road Initiative and its potential for the tourism industries in Africa, Asia and Europe: a gravity model approach
• Klíčová slova: Gravity Model, One Belt One Road, Tourism Potential, Transport Infrastructure, China
• Klíčová slova anglicky: Gravity Model, One Belt One Road, Tourism Potential, Transport Infrastructure, China
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2016/2017
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
• Vedoucí / školitel: Mgr. Michal Paulus
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 13.06.2017
• Datum zadání: 13.06.2017
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 25.01.2019 08:15
• Místo konání obhajoby: Jinonice - U Kříže 8, Praha 5, J3093, Jinonice - místn. č. 3093
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 04.01.2019
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 25.01.2019
• Oponenti: doc. Ing. Vladimír Benáček, CSc.

Seznam odborné literatury

Garcia Herrero, A & Xu, Jiawei (2016): China’s Belt and Road initiative: can Europe expect Trade gains?. Working Paper. Issue 5. Bruegel.

Prideaux, B. (2000). The role of the transport system in destination development. Tourism Management, 21(1), 53–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(99)00079-5

Anderson J. E. and E. Van Wincoop (2003) ‘Gravity with Gravitas: A solution to the Border Puzzle’, American Economic Review 93(1): 170-192

Shepherd, J. E. (2016) The Gravity Model of International Trade: A User Guide, United Nations Publications: 170-192

Shepherd, B., & Wilson, J. S. (2007). Trade, Infrastructure, and Roadways in Europe and Central Asia: New Empirical Evidence. Journal of Economic Integration, 22(December), 723–747.

Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90, 93–100.

Silk Road Fund. (2015). The Silk Road Fund Begins Operations. Retrieved November 3, 2017, from http://www.silkroadfund.com.cn/enweb/23809/23812/26892/index.html

UNWTO. (2017). UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2017. UNWTO Tourism Highlights, 2017 Edition. Madrid. Retrieved from https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284419029

WTTC. (2017). Travel & Tourism Global Economic Impact & Issues 2017. World Travel & Tourism Council. Retrieved from https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact-research/2017-documents/global-economic-impact-and-issues-2017.pdf

Khadaroo, J., & Seetanah, B. (2008). The role of transport infrastructure in international tourism development: A gravity model approach. Tourism Management, 29(5), 831–840. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.09.005

Morley, C., Rosselló, J., & Santana-Gallego, M. (2014). Gravity models for tourism demand: Theory and use. Annals of Tourism Research, 48, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2014.05.008

Předběžná náplň práce

In 2013, China presented the idea of the infrastructure project One Belt One Road. The thesis aims to analyse the potential effects of the initiative, and how its attempt to improve transport infrastructure will impact EU-tourist flows to participating countries. A closer look to the effects on the tourism industry is justified because of the importance of the touristic sector for the global economy. For instance, the direct contribution of the touristic sector accounted for 2.3 trillion USD worldwide in 2016. A gravity model approach is used in the following paper to examine the significance of road, railway, air service as well as port infrastructure for tourists from the European Union. Afterwards, an OBOR simulation is carried out that forecasts a potential change for EU-tourist inflows. The results go in line with previous gravity model studies regarding the positive relationship of the GDP and the inverse influence of the distance on tourism flows. Furthermore, the findings suggest a significant impact of well-developed road, railway and air service networks. However, the quality of ports did not meet the expectations and is somewhat contra productive for the decision making of EU tourists. The simulation for the improvement of transport infrastructure implies that countries with an under-developed availability and quality concerning the modes of transport are expected to have the highest potential change of EU-tourist inflows.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

In 2013, China presented the idea of the infrastructure project One Belt One Road. The thesis aims to analyse the potential effects of the initiative, and how its attempt to improve transport infrastructure will impact EU-tourist flows to participating countries. A closer look to the effects on the tourism industry is justified because of the importance of the touristic sector for the global economy. For instance, the direct contribution of the touristic sector accounted for 2.3 trillion USD worldwide in 2016. A gravity model approach is used in the following paper to examine the significance of road, railway, air service as well as port infrastructure for tourists from the European Union. Afterwards, an OBOR simulation is carried out that forecasts a potential change for EU-tourist inflows. The results go in line with previous gravity model studies regarding the positive relationship of the GDP and the inverse influence of the distance on tourism flows. Furthermore, the findings suggest a significant impact of well-developed road, railway and air service networks. However, the quality of ports did not meet the expectations and is somewhat contra productive for the decision making of EU tourists. The simulation for the improvement of transport infrastructure implies that countries with an under-developed availability and quality concerning the modes of transport are expected to have the highest potential change of EU-tourist inflows.