Predicting Conflicts via Maternal Mortality Rates? Human Security and the Emergence of Armed Conflict
| Název práce v češtině: | Předvídání konfliktů měrami mateřské úmrtnosti? Lidská bezpečnost a vznik ozbrojených konfliktů |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | Predicting Conflicts via Maternal Mortality Rates? Human Security and the Emergence of Armed Conflict |
| Klíčová slova: | lidská bezpečnost, včasné varování, bezpečnost, rozvoj, prevence konfliktů |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | human security, early warning, security, development, conflict prevention |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2012/2013 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Katedra mezinárodních vztahů (23-KMV) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | prof. PhDr. RNDr. Nikola Hynek, Ph.D., M.A. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 07.06.2013 |
| Datum zadání: | 07.06.2013 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 20.06.2016 08:00 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | IPS FSV UK, U kříže 8/661 158 00 Praha 5 – Jinonice |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 13.05.2016 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 20.06.2016 |
| Oponenti: | JUDr. PhDr. Tomáš Bruner, Ph.D. |
| Kontrola URKUND: | |
| Zásady pro vypracování |
| Research Question
In 1994, the UNDP Human Security report voiced out yet another neologism broadening the understanding of security, shifting it from a mere state survival to a security of an individual facing variety of threats beyond physical. In the 1994 report, “recognizing that the reasons for conflict and war today are often rooted in poverty, social injustice and environmental degradation”, the UNDP demanded that the United Nations step up in efforts in preventive diplomacy through “preventive development initiatives” (UNDP, 1994: 38) so that “even the people in rich countries are more secure.” (UN, 2004). In other words, the deprivation of human security may result in international insecurity and conflicts. Subsequently, adopting the concept, the development agenda steps up from a social cohesion policy to a conflict prevention mechanism, ensuring international security and order. Once an established norm, human security has represented both a theme for academic debates and a foundation of policies. On the academic level, the traditional understanding of security based on state survival in the international system is being contested with the human security that broadened and refocused the concept in order to encompass an individual within a state. While the state still bears the primary responsibility to ensure security of its respective citizens, failure to do so transfers this responsibility to international community to protect the individuals. On the policy-making level, providing a narrative linkage of security with development agenda, human security encourages and in particular cases provides the narrative raison d’etre for humanitarian and development initiatives, preventive actions and interventions. As the neologism increasingly stands behind actual production of policies (at least on the rhetorical level) and results in reshaping of the reality in the present and likely as well as in the future, it is now more urgent than ever to examine the gravity of the link between the deprivation of human security and the emergence of armed conflicts, especially those with international outreach. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to examine precisely this. Taking actual data on the emergence of armed conflicts since the end of the Cold War until recent, I will focus on the seven areas of human security as defined by the UNDP 1994 report, including economic, political, health, food, personal, community and personal security. I will examine their relation to armed conflicts with regard to possible endogeneity of the two, provided the data allow. This analysis will shed light on the relevance of human security as a policy-making tool. Depending on the outcome of the analysis, the correlation between human security (HS) measures and emergence of international armed conflicts will be either proven (i) irrelevant, (ii) partly relevant or (iii) relevant. Each of these options results in wide implications if supported by the analysis. First, if there is no correlation between HS deprivation and armed conflicts found, the link is (i) irrelevant. In this case, HS may be understood as a narrative concept either created or used in order to serve particular actor’s purposes. These range from allocation of resources from security to humanitarian sector to reasoning of power politics. Second, if there is correlation found solely in the conflicts characterized or caused by international interventions based on refusal to disregard human security deprivations, the link is (ii) partly relevant. Here, human security may possibly be the cause of international conflicts, a self-fulfilling prophecy creating what it reckons to prevent. Yet, finally, the link may be found (iii) relevant. Given the emergence of conflicts is strongly correlated to specific levels of HS deprivation, the causality may be further examined. Based on the results, increased likelihood for particular components of human security or particular combinations of these components resulting in conflict may be found. In this case, the analysis has a potential to determine particular conditions that increase the likelihood of emergence of a conflict. Given the still limited mechanisms of early warning for international as well as civil wars, human security measures may have a potential to add to the early warning abilities of international actors. 2. Methodology & Operationalization The analysis will examine the correlation between the relative HS deprivation and the emergence of armed conflict with international outreach. While a large body of literature has been focusing on the link between security and development, it has been doing so in regards to the roots and the emergence of the concept, its normative links to development or its policy-making implications. To my knowledge, no other work has yet examined the link between HS and international conflicts through empirical quantitative analysis based on comprehensive, rather than single case, examination. The HS indicators serve as independent variables likely regressed upon the conflict emergence as the dependent variable. In order to quantify social reality, thresholds for human security measures and armed conflicts need to be set according to common practices for both the (i) HS and (ii) conflict indicators. Regarding the (i) HS indicators, despite the lack of unified definition of human security and its potential comprehensiveness (despite recent pressures to narrow and operationalize the concept), the 1994 UNDP report definition is generally considered the founding document of human security discourse and remains the most cited. Its definition will thus provide measures for relative deprivation of human security in this analysis. According to the report, there are seven areas of individual security, with specific measures for each outlined in the report. First, health security is measured by presence of selected diseases, health spending per capita and maternal mortality measures. Food security is ensured by relative access to food and measured by undernourishment rates. Economic security is measured by the rates of formal to informal employment, stability of wages and homelessness rates. Environmental security is measured by deforestation-induced droughts and water scarcity. Community security stems from ethnic tensions and gender inequality. Personal security is threatened by crime and street violence, drug use, child abuse and suicide rates. Finally, political security is measured by human rights violations, political repression and ratio of military to social government spending. The data on particular indicators are available online in the databases of the UN (particularly the Millennium Development Project data), the World Bank, the IMF and the websites of developmental initiatives such as the Human Development project. Regarding the (ii) conflict indicators, the intra-state wars, international interventions and internal wars with international outreach will be considered. The purpose of the thesis is to examine the international outreach of human security deprivation, eliminating internal clashes such as ethnic tensions or political violence with no international outreach. The data on violent conflicts are available at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) database and the Uppsala University data program. Overall, the empirical examination and data analysis provides a fact-based explanation of the phenomenon of human security. Depending on the results, the neologism of human security may be confirmed as a discursive concept supporting particular agendas or even presented as a self-fulfilling prophecy. On the other hand, given the limited range of reliable early warning mechanisms, the possible existing correlation between human security deprivation and conflict emergence may serve as one of the early warning mechanisms for international conflicts using the already available indicators. This way, discovering correlative or causal links between the indicators of human security and the armed conflicts has a potential to increase the international community’s ability to monitor in-risk areas, respond early with preventive action and, as a consequence, to have an impact on the future course of events. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| Sources
UNDP, 1994. Human Development Report 1994, New York. UN, 2004. A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility - Report of the High-level Panel on Threats Challenges and Change, Available at: http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N04/602/31/PDF/N0460231.pdf?OpenElement. UN, 2005. In larger freedom: towards development, security and human rights for all: Report of the Secretary-General, Available at: http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Publications/A.59.2005.Add.3.pdf. King, G. & Murray, C.J.L., 2002. Rethinking Human Security. Political Science Quarterly, 116(4), pp.585–610. Duffield, M., 2001. Global Governance and the New Wars: Merging Development and Security, London: Zed Books. Duffield, M., 2007. Development, Security and Unending War: Governing the World of Peoples, London: Polity. Amer, R., Swain, A. & Ojendal, J., 2012. Anthem Politics and IR : Security-Development Nexus. In London: Anthem Press. Available at: London, GBR: Anthem Press, 2012. Chandler, D., 2007. The Security–Development Nexus and the Rise of “anti-foreign policy.” Journal of International Relations and Development, 10(4), pp.362–386. Welsh, J.M., 2004. Humanitarian Intervention and International Relations, New York: Oxford University Press. Hampson, O.F., Daudelin, J. & Hay, J.B., 2001. Madness in the Multitude: Human Security and World Disorder, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Nuruzzaman, M., 2006. Paradigms in Conflict: The Contested Claims of Human Security, Critical Theory and Feminism. Cooperation and Conflict, 41(3), pp.285–303. Kaldor, M., Martin, M. & Selchow, S., 2007. Human Security : A New Strategic Narrative for Europe, 83(2), pp.273–288. Large, J. & Sisk, T.D., 2006. Democracy, Conflict and Human Security: Pursuing Peace in the 21st Century, Stockholm: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. Reuveny, R., 2007. Climate Change-induced Migration and Violent Conflict. Political Geography, 26, pp.656–673. Zaryab, I., 2006. Health and Human Security : The Public Health Impact of Violent Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 50, pp.631–649. Owen, T. & Liotta, P.H., From Concept to Contact: Human Security as Foreign Policy. Unpublished Working Paper. Martin, M. & Owen, T., 2010. The Second Generation of Human Security : Lessons from the UN and EU Experience. International Affairs, 86(1), pp.211–224. Ward, M.D., Greenhill, B.D. & Bakke, K.M., 2010. The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts. Journal of Peace Research, 47(4), pp.363–375. O’Brien, S.P., 2002. Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(6), pp.791–811. Harff, B., Gurr, T.R. & Robert, T., 1998. Systematic Early Warning of Humanitarian Emergencies. Journal of Peace Research, 35(5), pp.551–579. Callaway, R. & Harrelson-Stephens, J., 2006. Toward a Theory of Terrorism: Human Security as a Determinant of Terrorism. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 29(7), pp.679–702. Thoms, O.N.T. & Ron, J., 2007. Do Human Rights Violations Cause Internal Conflict? Human Rights Quarterly, 29(3), pp.674–705. Leaning, J. & Arie, S., 2000. Human Security: A Framework for Assessment In Conflict and Transition. Paris, R., 2001. Human Security: Paradigm Shift or Hot Air? International Security, 26(2), pp.87–102. Alkire, S., 2003. A Conceptual Framework for Human Security, Oxford. Homer-Dixon, T., 1991. On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict. International Security, 16(2), pp.76–116. Salehyan, I., 2008. From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet. Journal of Peace Research, 45(3), pp.315–326. Stern, M. & Ojendal, J., 2010. Mapping the Security--Development Nexus: Conflict, Complexity, Cacophony, Convergence? Security Dialogue, 41(1), pp.5–29. Barnett, J. & Adger, W.N., 2007. Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), pp.639–655. Owen, T., 2004. Human Security - Conflict, Critique and Consensus: Colloquium Remarks and a Proposal for a Threshold-Based Definition. Security Dialogue, 35(3), pp.373–387. Themner, L. & Wallensteen, P., 2013. Armed Conflicts, 1946-2012. Journal of Peace Research, 50(4), pp.509–521. |
| Předběžná náplň práce |
| Preliminary Structure
Introduction Part I: Human Security Norm and New Conflicts Part II: Components of Human Security as Related to Conflicts Part III: Quantitative Analysis a. Individual 7 Indicators of Human Security and Conflict b. Combination of the Indicators and Conflict Part IV: Results, one of three outcomes: a. HS and Prediction of International Conflict b. HS and Prediction of Other Types of Conflict c. No Relation of HS to Prediction of Conflicts Part V: Implications Conclusion |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Preliminary Structure
Introduction Part I: Human Security Norm and New Conflicts Part II: Components of Human Security as Related to Conflicts Part III: Quantitative Analysis a. Individual 7 Indicators of Human Security and Conflict b. Combination of the Indicators and Conflict Part IV: Results, one of three outcomes: a. HS and Prediction of International Conflict b. HS and Prediction of Other Types of Conflict c. No Relation of HS to Prediction of Conflicts Part V: Implications Conclusion |