Two Essays on Inflation Targeting

• Název práce v češtině: Dva eseje o cílování inflace
• Název v anglickém jazyce: Two Essays on Inflation Targeting
• Klíčová slova: cílování inflace, monetární politika
• Klíčová slova anglicky: inflation targeting, monetary policy
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2010/2011
• Typ práce: rigorózní práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
• Vedoucí / školitel: prof. Roman Horváth, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 07.02.2011
• Datum zadání: 07.02.2011
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 30.03.2011 15:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: IES
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 14.02.2011
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 30.03.2011
• Oponenti: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D.

Seznam odborné literatury

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[45] Walsh C. E.: "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Real Objectives'', Czech National Bank Working Paper Series, February 2007.

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[47] Ball L., Sheridan N.: ''Does Inflation Targeting Matter?'' in The Inflation-Targeting Debate, The University of Chicago Press, 2005

[48] Batini N., Laxton D.: “ Under what conditions can inflation targeting be adopted?”, in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, Banco Central de Chile, 2007, 467-506. BWDebate Bernanke B., Woodford M.: ``The Inflation Targeting Debate: Introduction," in The Inflation-Targeting Debate, The University of Chicago Press, 2005

[49] Caballero R. J., Krishnamurthy A.: ``Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops'' in The Inflation-Targeting Debate, The University of Chicago Press, 2005

[50] Collins S., Siklos P.: Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Targets: Are Australia, Canada, and New Zealand Different from the U.S.?", Open Economies Review 15 October 2004, 347-362.

[51] Faust J., Henderson D. W.: “Is Inflation Targeting Best-Practice Monetary Policy?” May 2004, FRB International Finance Discussion Paper No. 807. Available at SSRN:

[52] Fraga A., Goldfajn I., Minella A.: "Inflation Targeting In Emerging Market Economies", NBER Working Papers, WP No. 10019, October 2003.

[53] Goodfriend M.: ``Inflation Targeting in the United States?'' in The Inflation-Targeting Debate, The University of Chicago Press, 2005

[54] Issing O.: “Inflation Targeting: A View from the ECB,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2004, 86(4), 169-179.

[55] Jonas J., Mishkin F. S.: ``Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries'' in The Inflation-Targeting Debate, The University of Chicago Press, 2005

[56] King M.: ''What Has Inflation Targeting Achieved?'' in The Inflation-Targeting Debate, The University of Chicago Press, 2005

[57] Kydland F. E., Prescott E. C.: ``Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans,'' The Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, 1977.

[58] Lin S., Ye H.: “Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference? Evaluating the Treatment Effect of Inflation Targeting in Seven Industrial Countries,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 54 (2007), 2521-2533. Propensity scoring approach.

[59] Lin S., Ye H.: “Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference? Other Side of the Story from Developing Countries,” available at www.econ.vt.edu/seminars/seminarpapers/2008/shu_linpaper2.pdf

[60] Little J. S., Romano T. F.: ``Inflation Targeting—Central Bank Practice Overseas'' Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Public Policy Briefs, No. 08/1, 2009

[61] Loayza N., Soto R.: ``Inflation Targeting: An Overview,'' Central Bank of Chile, available at http://www.bcentral.cl/estudios/banca-central/pdf/v5/001_022Intro.pdf

[62] Mishkin F. S.: ``Monetary Policy Strategy: How Did We Get Here?", NBER Working Paper No. 12515, 2006.

[63] Mishkin F. S., Schmidt-Hebbel K.: "One Decade Of Inflation Targeting In the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?", NBER Working Papers, WP No. 8397, July 2001.

[64] Mishkin F. S., Schmidt-Hebbel K.: "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?", Czech National Bank Working Paper Series, December 2006.

[65] Neumann M., von Hargen J.: ``Does Infation Targeting Matter?", Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 84 (July-August 2002), 127-48.

[66] Petursson T.: ``The Effect of Inflation Targeting on Macroeconomic Performance", Working Paper No. 23, Central Bank of Iceland, 2004.

[67] Ravenna F.: “The Impact of Inflation Targeting: Testing the Good Luck Hypothesis,” Nov. 2007.

[68] Roger S., Stone M.: “On Target? The International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets,” International Monetary Fund Working Paper WP/05/163, August 2005.

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[71] Siklos P.: ``Inflation Targeting Around the World", Emerging Market Finance and Trade (forthcoming) 2008.

[72] Siklos P., Weymark D.: ``Has Inflation Targeting Improved Monetary Policy? Evaluating Policy Effectiveness in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand'', Vanderbilt University WP, 2009, available at http://www.vanderbilt.edu/Econ/wparchive/workpaper/vu09-w06.pdf

[73] Sims Ch. A.: ``Limits to Inflation Targeting'' in The Inflation-Targeting Debate, The University of Chicago Press, 2005

[74] Stiglitz J. E.: “The Failure of Inflation Targeting,” Project Syndicate, www.project-syndicate.org/print_commentary/stiglitz99/English, 2008

[75] Svensson L. E. O.: "Inflation Targeting As a Monetary Policy Rule", NBER Working Papers, WP No. 6790, November 1998.

[76] Tempelman J. T.: ``A Case Against Explicit Inflation Targeting,'' 2008, available at http://www.jerrytempelman.com/support-files/Inflation-Targeting-AEA-2008.pdf

[77] Truman E. M.: Inflation Targeting in the World Economy, Institute for International Economics, 2003.

[78] Vega M., Winkelried D.: “Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story,” International Journal of Central Banking 1(3), Dec 2005, 153-175.

[79] Walsh C. E.: "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?", University of California, Santa Cruz, July 2008.

[80] Willard L. B.: “Does Inflation Targeting Matter? A Reassessment,” CEPS Working Paper No. 120, Feb. 2006.

[81] Woodford M.: ``Inflation Targeting and Optimal Monetary Policy'' Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/Aug. 2004, 15-41.

[82] Wu T.: “Does Inflation Targeting Reduce Inflation? An Analysis for the OECD Industrial Countries”, Banco Central do Brazil Working Paper 83, 2004. http://ssrn.com/abstract=558685

Předběžná náplň práce

Práce sestává ze dvou esejů o cílování inflace. První esej zkoumá, jak centrální banky určují své inflační cíle. Prezentován je přehled komunikace centrálních bank ohledně inflačních cílů, dále je zkoustruován teoretický model a nakonec je provedena panelová empirická analýza zemí cílujích inflaci. Tato první analýza daného problému vede k závěru, ze inflační cíle jsou ovlivněny více proměnnými nez centrální banky přiznávají. Kromě vlivu minulé a zahraniční inflace, variability inflace a růstu HDP nacházíme signifikantní vliv kredibility centrální banky a dalsích institucionálních faktorů. Krátký druhý esej se zabývá perspektivami cílování inflace jako rámce pro měnovou politiku a zároveň je přehledem dosavadní literatury hodnotící cílování inflace. Závěrem je, ze pokud budou centrální banky cílující inflaci pokračovat v důrazu na transparentnost a komunikaci a zároveň zůstanou otevřeny inovacím, cílování inflace má vysoké sance uspět i v období krize.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

The thesis consists of two essays on inflation targeting. The first essay examines how do monetary authorities set their inflation targets. Survey of central banks' communication regarding the target is presented, theoretical model is developed and finally empirical analysis is conducted on a panel of inflation targeting countries. This pioneering analysis of the topic leads us to conclusion that inflation targets are influenced by more variables than central banks admit. In addition to past and foreign inflation, inflation variability and GDP growth we find significant impact of central bank credibility and other institutional factors. The short second essay surveys literature assessing performance of inflation targeting and outlines perspectives of inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. The conclusion is that if inflation targeting central banks stick to their best practice in transparency and communication and remain open to innovations, inflation targeting will have a good chance to score well even in the periods of turmoil.