Impact of Trade Policies on Pakistan’s Economy: A Sectoral-Level Analysis
| Název práce v češtině: | Dopad opatření obchodní politiky na ekonomiku Pákistánu: Sektorová analýza |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | Impact of Trade Policies on Pakistan’s Economy: A Sectoral-Level Analysis |
| Klíčová slova: | Mezinárodní obchod, obchodní politika, cla, netarifní opatření, speciální ekonomické zóny, Export Processing Zones, Pákistán |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | International trade, trade policies, tariffs, non-tariff measures, Special Economic Zones, Export Processing Zones, Pakistan |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2022/2023 |
| Typ práce: | bakalářská práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | Ing. Boris Fišera, Ph.D. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 28.06.2023 |
| Datum zadání: | 28.06.2023 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 09.09.2024 09:00 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Opletalova, O314, místnost. č. 314 |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 31.07.2024 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 09.09.2024 |
| Oponenti: | Ing. Vilém Semerák, M.A., Ph.D. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| Akram, A., Mahmood, Z. (2012). Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade between Pakistan and Selected SAARC Countries. The Pakistan Development Review, 51(1), 47-49. https://jstor.org/stable/23733823.
Frohm, E. (2023). Dominant currencies and the export supply channel. International Economics, 173, 1-18. Gokmenoglu, K. K., Amin, M. Y., & Taspinar, N. (2015). The Relationship among International Trade, Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Pakistan. Procedia Economics and Finance, 25, 489-496. Goldberg, P. K., & Pavcnik, N. (2016). The Effects of Trade Policy. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w21957. Pursell, G. G., Khan, A., & Gulzar, S. (2011). Pakistan's trade policies: Future directions. International Growth Centre. Qadir, N., & Majeed, M. T. (2018). The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Health: Evidence from Pakistan. Empirical Economic Review, 1(1), 71-108. https://doi.org/10,29145/eer/11/010104. Yeo, A. D., & Deng, A. (2019). The trade policy effect in international trade: case of Pakistan. Journal of Economic Structures, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-019-0169-8. |
| Předběžná náplň práce |
| Research question and motivation
The main aim of the thesis is to investigate the effect of various trade policies on Pakistan's economy - with a particular emphasis on exports of key sectors of Pakistan's economy. Since Pakistan's economy is heavily reliant on trade, the thesis aims to study the effects of various policies and factors such as tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, trade liberalisation, FTAs, exchange rates and tax breaks and how they affect the economic performance and exports in Pakistan. Research into the impact of trade policies on Pakistan’s economy can help to understand the consequences of these policies. This research can be beneficial for both policymakers and businesses. The thesis aims to explore how the different variables of interest vary over time through a panel data analysis. Consequently, the research into this topic could help the governments and businesses to optimise their decision-making. The research into this topic could be quite interesting and beneficial to an economy such as Pakistan, which is heavily reliant on trade. Understanding the complex relationships between trade policies and industry outcomes can help boost economic growth. Akram & Mahmood (2012) have already examined trade between Pakistan and its trading partners through gravity models and they outlined which factors might help to improve the international trade. However, the existing literature generally does a macroeconomic analysis on how trade policies affect the economy as a whole, therefore this research, which aims to do the empirical analysis on the sectoral-level of Pakistan's economy, acts as a natural extension. Contribution The thesis would aim to extend the existing literature through a statistical analysis of sector-specific data. This would help to analyse what policies and factors affect different sectors, as well as which types of sectors are most affected by trade policies. Empirical analysis will help to estimate the magnitude and significance of the effect of these policies and factors on exports of different sectors. Moreover, Pakistan has several sector-specific Special Economic Zones (SEZs), and since the research on their effect is largely missing, understanding the impact of these SEZs can help policymakers maximise output and exports. Methodology Regression analysis in a panel of key sectors of Pakistan's economy will be used to estimate the effect of various types of trade policy on exports. The regressions will be estimated with the standard fixed effects estimator. Following variables will be considered as measures of Pakistan's trade policies: Dummy variables will be used to study the effects of new FTAs, sectoral-specific tax breaks, and trade liberalization policies. Moreover, other variables of interest will include tariffs, exchange rates, and the trade policy uncertainty. Interaction terms will be used to explore the conditionality of the effect of trade policies on different sector - to outline, which types of sectors are most affected by the trade policy. Detailed data on Pakistan's trade activities can be obtained from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) website, this data would help to understand how Pakistan’s trade is divided into various sectors. In conjunction with the PBS website, specific data on the variables of interest can be obtained from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) website and compiled into a larger data set which can be used for analysis in RStudio. The WITS website offers data regarding imports and exports of countries from around the world. It is also possible to filter the data by specific variables and industries which would help with panel data analysis. This method of analysis can help to understand sector-specific policies. It would be useful to obtain different data sets and combine them to specifically study the main variables of interest (tariffs, exchange rates, tax breaks). Moreover, there is plenty of data available on the CEPII website to generate gravity models, which would help with the modelling of the volume of trade between Pakistan and its partners. Gravity models can be useful for this analysis because they can indicate whether the volume of trade between countries grew after the removal of non-tariff measures. Outline Abstract Introduction: a) Motivation for the research b) Addressing the existing literature c) Contributions d) Structure of the thesis Literature review a) Trade policy types b) Discussing the literature on macroeconomic effects of trade policies c) Discussing the literature on the effects of trade policies and other factors such as political uncertainty on trade Methodology a) Data description b) Gravity models to model international trade c) Regression analysis Results a) Introducing Pakistan’s economy and how GDP is split amongst the different sectors b) Testing the statistical significance and interpreting the results from the model c) Implications for policymakers: how policymakers can use the research d) Possible limitations to the research: lack of data/scope/industries (not all industries can be covered) Conclusion |