The effect of populism on macroeconomic performance
| Název práce v češtině: | Vliv populismu na makroekonomickou výkonnost |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | The effect of populism on macroeconomic performance |
| Klíčová slova: | akroekonomie, Populismus, Synthetic Control Method, Ekonometrie |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | Macroeconomics, Populism, Synthetic Control Method, Econometrics |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2022/2023 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 28.06.2023 |
| Datum zadání: | 28.06.2023 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 18.09.2024 09:00 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Opletalova, O314, místnost. č. 314 |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 31.07.2024 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 18.09.2024 |
| Oponenti: | PhDr. Jiří Schwarz, Ph.D. |
| Zásady pro vypracování |
| Motivation:
In recent years, the rise of populism has captured the attention of both academics and policymakers worldwide. Populist movements and leaders have gained significant prominence in various countries, challenging established political systems and shaping the socio-economic landscape. While populism's impact on political dynamics has been widely examined, its implications for macroeconomic conditions and long-term progress remain an area that requires further investigation. Understanding the relationship between populism and a country's economic trajectory is crucial for policymakers and researchers alike, as it sheds light on the potential consequences of populist policies and informs the design of effective economic frameworks. The motivation behind this thesis stems from the need to comprehensively explore how populism influences a country's future macroeconomic situation and progress. By examining the interplay between populist movements and economic policies, we can gain insights into the potential drivers, mechanisms, and implications of populism on key macroeconomic indicators such as growth, inflation, employment, income distribution, and fiscal stability. Such an analysis holds immense importance in a world characterized by increasing political polarization and the resurgence of populist narratives. Hypotheses: 1. Hypothesis #1: Countries with a higher prevalence of populist movements or leaders will experience lower economic growth rates compared to countries with lower levels of populism. 2. Hypothesis #2: Higher levels of populism will be associated with increased income inequality within a country, as populist policies often prioritize short-term benefits for certain segments of the population at the expense of long-term inclusive growth. 3. Hypothesis #3: Populist rhetoric and policies that undermine the independence of central banks and the rule of law will have adverse effects on investor confidence, resulting in higher borrowing costs and reduced foreign direct investment inflows. Expected Contribution: The thesis would contribute to the existing academic literature by deepening our understanding of the complex relationship between populism and macroeconomics. It would provide empirical evidence, theoretical insights, and rigorous analysis, helping to fill gaps in knowledge and offering new perspectives on this topic. The thesis could have practical implications for policymakers and stakeholders. By investigating the economic consequences of populism, the research findings could inform policy debates and decision-making processes. It may highlight the potential risks and challenges associated with populist policies and offer insights into designing more effective economic frameworks and policy strategies. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
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methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of california’s tobacco control program.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 105(490): pp. 493–505. Abadie, A., A. Diamond, & J. Hainmueller (2015): “Comparative politics and the synthetic control method.” American Journal of Political Science 59(2): pp. 495–510. Abadie, A. & J. Gardeazabal (2003): “The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the basque country.” The American Economic Review 93(1): pp. 113–132. Alexander, M. (editor) (2012): The New Jim Crow: Mass Incarceration in the Age of Colorblindness. The New Press. Altemeyer, B. (editor) (2009): Right-Wing Authoritarianism. University of Manitoba Press. Amraoui, A. E. & F. Edroos (2018): “Why Turkey’s military is not what it used to be.” Al-Jazeera . Azzolini, D. & R. Guetto (2017): “The impact of citizenship on inter- marriage: Quasi-experimental evidence from two european union eastern enlargements.” Demographic Research 36: pp. 1299–1336. Bagchi, S. & M. J. Fagerstrom (2019): “Proceedings. Annual Conference on Taxation and Minutes of the Annual Meeting of the National Tax Asso- ciation.” National Tax Association 112: pp. 1–40. Berg, A. & J. Ostrý (2011): “Inequality and unsustainable growth: Two sides of the same coin?” IMF Staff Discussion Note . Bull, B. & A. Rosales (2020): “The crisis in venezuela: Drivers, transitions, and pathways.” European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies (109): pp. 1–20. Champion, J. (2021): Tyrants of Syracuse: War in Ancient Sicily. Pen Sword Books Ltd. Dalio, R., G. Davis, S. Kryger, & J. Rogers (2017): “Populism: The phenomenon.” Bridgewater Daily Observations 203. Funke, M., M. Schularick, & C. Trebesch (2022): “Populist Leaders and the Economy.” Gerakis, S. A. & P. H. Wald (1964): “Economic Stabilization and Progress in Greece.” IMF Staff papers 11(1). Gustafson, B. (2010): “Muldoon, Robert David.” Dictionary of New Zealand Biography . Harris, T. (2019): “Japan’s post-populist democracy.” East Asia Forum . Hartwell, C., R. Horváth, E. Horvathova, & O. Popova (2019): “Natu- ral resources and income inequality in developed countries: Synthetic control method evidence.” IOS Working Papers 381. Hetherington, M. J. & J. D. Weiler (editors) (2009): Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics. Cambridge University Press. Huntington, S. P. (1991): “Democracy’s third wave.” Journal of Democracy 2(2): pp. 12–34. Ko, K. (2017): “Economics note: Investor confidence.” Division of Economic and Risk Analysis, SEC . Kovras, I. & N. Loizides (2014): “The Effects of Regional Tax and Subsidy Coordination on Foreign Direct Investment.” Comparative Politics 47(1): pp. 1–20. MacWilliams, M. C. (editor) (2016): The Rise of Trump: America’s Author- itarian Spring. Amherst College Press. Midlarsky, M. I. (1992): “The origins of democracy in agrarian society: Land inequality and political rights.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(3): pp. 454–477. Mietzner, M. (2015): “Reinventing Asian Populism: Jokowi’s Rise, Democ- racy and Political Contestation in Indonesia.” East-West Center . Morelock, J. (editor) (2018): Critical Theory and Authoritarian Populism. University of Westminster Press. Mudde, C. (2004): “The populist zeitgeist.” Government and Opposition 39(4): pp. 541–563. Muller, E. N. (1988): “Democracy, Economic Development, and Income In- equality.” American Sociological Review 53: pp. 50–68. Nishikawa, M. (2023): “Uncovering the realities of populism in japan.” ECPR’s Political Science Blog . Norris, P. & R. Inglehart (2016): “Trump, brexit, and the rise of populism: Economic have-nots and cultural backlash.” HKS Working Paper (RWP16- 026). Opatrny, M. (2021): Evaluating Economic Policy Using the Synthetic Control Method. Ph.D. thesis, Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University. Pappas, T. S. (2014): “Populist Democracies: Post-Authoritarian Greece and Post-Communist Hungary.” Government and Opposition 49(1): pp. 1–23. Resnick, D. (editor) (2015): Varieties of African Populism in Comparative Perspective. In The Promise and Perils of Populism: Global Perspectives. Carlos de la Torre (ed.). University of Kentucky Press. Rodrik, D. (2018): “Is Populism Necessarily Bad Economics?” AEA Papers and Proceedings 108: pp. 196–199. Root, F. & A. Ahmed (1979): “Empirical determinants of manufacturing direct foreign investment in developing countries.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 27(4): pp. 751–767. Schularick, M., C. Trebesch, & M. Funke (2021): “The cost of populism: Evidence from history.” Tacconi, M. (2019): “Illiberal trend: Kaczynski’s poland and the economic populism.” Reset Dialogues on Civilizations . |
| Předběžná náplň práce |
| Methodology:
Data: To gather data on the prevalence of populism within different countries, I could use established indices that measure populism, such as from The Manifesto Project. The Chapel Hill Expert Survey could also be a great resource. A second way would be to analyse public speeches or social media data (such as Twitter) to identify populist rhetoric and sentiment. Web scraping tools and natural language processing techniques could be then used to work with the data. Economic growth data can be obtained from sources like the World Bank's World Development Indicators database, which provides annual GDP growth rates. The World Income Inequality Database provides comprehensive data on income inequality metrics, such as the Gini coefficient, for a wide range of countries. To measure investor confidence, I could examine interest rates or government bond yields as proxies for borrowing costs. Data on interest rates can be obtained from central bank websites or financial data providers. Foreign direct investment inflow data can be sourced from the World Bank. I would then conduct statistical analysis best suited to the data gathered. Outline: 1. Introduction Background and context of populism and its rise in various countries. Statement of the research problem and objectives. Significance and relevance of studying the relationship between populism and macroeconomics. 2. Literature Review Review of existing literature on populism, its drivers and consequences. Synthesis of previous research on the relationship between populism and macroeconomic indicators, such as growth, inequality, fiscal stability, and trade. 3. Theoretical Framework Development of a conceptual framework that explains the potential mechanisms through which populism can influence macroeconomic outcomes. 4. Methodology Explanation of statistical or econometric techniques employed to test the hypotheses. Consideration of potential limitations and strategies to address them. 5. Empirical Analysis Testing of the hypotheses using appropriate statistical techniques. Interpretation and discussion of the empirical results in relation to the research questions and theoretical framework. 6. Findings and Discussion Summary of the main findings from the empirical analysis. Discussion of the implications of the findings for understanding the relationship between populism and macroeconomic outcomes. Comparison with existing literature and interpretation of any inconsistencies or novel insights. 7. Conclusion Recapitulation of the research objectives and main findings. Reflection on the limitations and potential avenues for future research. Final remarks and concluding thoughts. 8. References 9. Appendices |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Methodology:
Data: To gather data on the prevalence of populism within different countries, I could use established indices that measure populism, such as from The Manifesto Project. The Chapel Hill Expert Survey could also be a great resource. A second way would be to analyse public speeches or social media data (such as Twitter) to identify populist rhetoric and sentiment. Web scraping tools and natural language processing techniques could be then used to work with the data. Economic growth data can be obtained from sources like the World Bank's World Development Indicators database, which provides annual GDP growth rates. The World Income Inequality Database provides comprehensive data on income inequality metrics, such as the Gini coefficient, for a wide range of countries. To measure investor confidence, I could examine interest rates or government bond yields as proxies for borrowing costs. Data on interest rates can be obtained from central bank websites or financial data providers. Foreign direct investment inflow data can be sourced from the World Bank. I would then conduct statistical analysis best suited to the data gathered. Outline: 1. Introduction Background and context of populism and its rise in various countries. Statement of the research problem and objectives. Significance and relevance of studying the relationship between populism and macroeconomics. 2. Literature Review Review of existing literature on populism, its drivers and consequences. Synthesis of previous research on the relationship between populism and macroeconomic indicators, such as growth, inequality, fiscal stability, and trade. 3. Theoretical Framework Development of a conceptual framework that explains the potential mechanisms through which populism can influence macroeconomic outcomes. 4. Methodology Explanation of statistical or econometric techniques employed to test the hypotheses. Consideration of potential limitations and strategies to address them. 5. Empirical Analysis Testing of the hypotheses using appropriate statistical techniques. Interpretation and discussion of the empirical results in relation to the research questions and theoretical framework. 6. Findings and Discussion Summary of the main findings from the empirical analysis. Discussion of the implications of the findings for understanding the relationship between populism and macroeconomic outcomes. Comparison with existing literature and interpretation of any inconsistencies or novel insights. 7. Conclusion Recapitulation of the research objectives and main findings. Reflection on the limitations and potential avenues for future research. Final remarks and concluding thoughts. 8. References 9. Appendices |