Analysis of Russian efforts to avoid economic sanctions
| Název práce v češtině: | Analýza ruských snah vyhnout se ekonomickým sankcím |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | Analysis of Russian efforts to avoid economic sanctions |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | Russia, gravity model, network analysis, economic sanctions |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2022/2023 |
| Typ práce: | bakalářská práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | Ing. Vilém Semerák, M.A., Ph.D. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 25.06.2023 |
| Datum zadání: | 25.06.2023 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 09.09.2024 09:00 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Opletalova, O105, místnost č. 105 |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 31.07.2024 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 09.09.2024 |
| Oponenti: | Mgr. Tomáš Boukal |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| Gleb V. Borisov, Liudmila V. Popova, Ehsan Rasoulinezhad (2020), Modification of Russia's Trade Pattern under External Shocks in 2014 and Beyond
Bibigul Bimbetova et al. (2019), The Impact of International Sanctions On National Economic Regime of Target States Iana Dreyer, Nicu Popescu (2014), Do sanctions against Russia work? Julian Hinz (2017), The Cost of Sanctions: Estimating Lost Trade with Gravity Maria Demertzis et al. (2022), How have sanctions impacted Russia? |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Research question and motivation
The primary research inquiry that I aim to investigate regards the efficacy of the most recent sanctions imposed on Russia in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as well as Russia's efforts of evading these sanctions. This subject holds relevance for each individual in our daily lives, as the impact of sanctions extends beyond political gestures and significantly influences the global economic conditions experienced by citizens worldwide. Observing the consequences of political debates and sanctions, I decided to address this topic in a more complex manner. The critical aspect of this study involves analyzing the evolving trade routes that have emerged since February 2022, along with the indications pointing to Russia's utilization of these routes. One notable method employed to circumvent sanctions involves leveraging the trade routes through Kazakhstan, which has gained recognition for this purpose. The United States has already issued warnings to Kazakhstan, threatening secondary sanctions if it is found to be facilitating Russia in evading the sanctions. It is essential to bear in mind that certain trade routes remain concealed or undisclosed despite the imposition of sanctions on Russia by numerous countries worldwide. Consequently, this study will rely on publicly available and official data obtained from reliable sources. Contribution The initial step involves merging the acquired data. A valuable resource for Russian trade is the Russian foreign trade tracker; however, it solely covers significant countries and trade partners such as the United States, United Kingdom, China, and India. Thus, this dataset prompted me to explore trade data from the UN Comtrade database. However, as previously mentioned, a substantial portion of sanction circumvention occurs through Kazakhstan, which maintains official datasets containing trade information on its government website. Given the existing evidence of Russia's evasion of sanctions, the objective of my thesis is not to analyze whether such evasion is taking place, but rather to explore how it is being executed, particularly considering the impact of the new war conflict and taking into account the previously imposed sanctions during the 2014/15 period. The primary focus of my thesis will involve comparing the anticipated state of trade under normal circumstances with the current situation, thereby unveiling the magnitude of ongoing trade activities. Methodology To surpass the limitations of simple data comparison, a more sophisticated methodology is required, considering the economic context. This is crucial since actions that may initially appear as sanction evasion might actually be market reactions. Among the advanced methods at my disposal, I will concentrate on network analysis to assess the increased involvement of European and Central Asian countries within the trade network – I want to research potential growth or decline in trade with Russia’s trade partners and neighboring nations. By applying this analysis, I reckon gaining deeper insight and identifying specific countries that will be focus of my subsequent research. Another important econometric method essential to my study will be the gravity model of trade. The objective is to utilize the model by inputting the data and predict, how the standard trade situation in 2022 would have appear. This outcome will then be compared with trade information from 2020 and 2021, enabling estimation of residuals and trade potentials. It is essential to isolate the impact of the sanctions in order to uncover their effects without significant bias. Outline Abstract Introduction a) Literature review b) Why is topic of sanctions interesting c) Introduction to sanctions problematic d) Ways of avoiding sanctions e) Brief summarization of results f) Structure of my thesis Methodology a) Description of the data b) Use of the network analysis c) Use of the gravity model d) Comparing the results Results a) Rejecting or not rejecting null hypothesis b) Interpretation of my results Conclusion a) Sanctions avoidance in broader context b) Topics for future research |