The Nature of Conflict in the Arctic: A Rationalist Approach to the Conflict Triggers

• Název práce v češtině: Povaha konfliktu v Arktidě: Racionalistický přístup k spouštěčům konfliktu
• Název v anglickém jazyce: The Nature of Conflict in the Arctic: A Rationalist Approach to the Conflict Triggers
• Klíčová slova: Arktida; konflikt; teorie racionální volby; bargaining model of war; spouštěče konfliktu; NATO; Rusko
• Klíčová slova anglicky: Arctic; conflict; rational choice theory; bargaining model of war; conflict triggers; NATO; Russia
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2021/2022
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Katedra bezpečnostních studií (23-KBS)
• Vedoucí / školitel: Mgr. Angelika Suchanová, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 15.06.2022
• Datum zadání: 15.06.2022
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 20.09.2023 07:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: Jinonice - U Kříže 8, Praha 5
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 01.08.2023
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 20.09.2023
• Oponenti: doc. PhDr. Vít Střítecký, M.Phil., Ph.D.

Seznam odborné literatury

Baev, P. (2007). Russia's Race for the Arctic and the New Geopolitics of the North Pole. Jamestown Foundation.
Benda, L. (2022) Is NATO capable of challenging Russia in the Arctic?. Security Outlines. https://www.securityoutlines.cz/is-nato-capable-of-challenging-russia-in-the-arctic/
Borgerson, S. (2013). The Coming Arctic Boom: As the Ice Melts, the Region Heats Up. Foreign Affairs, 92(4), 76–89. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23526909
Borgerson, S. G. (2008). Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming. Foreign Affairs, 87(2), 63–77. http://www.jstor.org/stable/20032581
Chelimo, G. C. (2011). Defining Armed Conflict in International Humanitarian Law. Inquiries Journal, 3(04).
Cressey, D. (2008). The Next Land Rush. Nature, 451(7174), 12-15.
De Buitrago, S. R. (2019). Risk Representations and Confrontational Actions in the Arctic. Journal of strategic security, 12(3), 13-36.
De Mesquita, B. B. (1981). Risk, power distributions, and the likelihood of war. International Studies Quarterly, 25(4), 541-568.
Eckstein, M. (2021) New Arctic Strategy Calls for Regular Presence as a Way to Compete With Russia, China. USNI News. https://news.usni.org/2021/01/05/new-arctic-strategy-calls-for-regular-presence-as-a-way-to-compete-with-russia-china.
Fearon, J. D. (1995). Rationalist explanations for war. International organization, 49(3), 379-414.
Filson, D., & Werner, S. (2002). A Bargaining Model of War and Peace: Anticipating the Onset, Duration, and Outcome of War. American Journal of Political Science, 46(4), 819–837. https://doi.org/10.2307/3088436
Geneva Convention. (1949). Convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War. Geneva, Switzerland, 12 August 1949.
Government of Canada. (2019) Arctic and Northern Policy Framework. https://www.rcaanc-cirnac.gc.ca/eng/1560523306861/1560523330587.
Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research. (2022) Conflict Barometer 2022. https://hiik.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/CoBa_2022_00_01.pdf
Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research. (n.d.). Methodology. https://hiik.de/hiik/methodology/?lang=en
Humpert, M. (2021). Russia elevates importance of northern fleet upgrading it to military district status. High North News, 13.
Humpert, M. (2023) China To Supply Key Turbines to Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/china-supply-key-turbines-novateks-arctic-lng-2
Ilulissat Declaration. (2008). Arctic Ocean Conference, Ilulissat, Greenland, 27 May 2008. https://arcticportal.org/images/stories/pdf/Ilulissat-declaration.pdf
Jacobsen, M. (2022). Arctic aspects in Denmark's New Foreign and Security Policy Strategy. The Arctic Institute. https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/arctic-aspects-denmark-new-foreign-security-policy-strategy/
Jean-François Rioux, J., & Neufeld Redekop, V. (2012). Introduction to Conflict Studies: Empirical, Theoretical, and Ethical Dimensions. Oxford University Press.
Keil, K. (2014). The Arctic: A new region of conflict? The case of oil and gas. Cooperation and conflict, 49(2), 162-190.
Kobzeva, M. (2019) China’s Arctic policy: present and future. The Polar Journal, 9(1), 94-112. https://doi.org/10.1080/2154896X.2019.1618558
Macneill, C. (2020). Trip to Lomonosov Ridge: The Arctic, UNCLOS, and 'off the Shelf'
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark. (2011) Kingdom of Denmark Strategy for the Arctic 2011–2020. http://library.arcticportal.org/1890/1/DENMARK.pdf
Norwegian Ministries. (2021). The Norwegian Government’s Arctic Policy. https://www.regjeringen.no/en/dokumenter/arctic_policy/id2830120/.
Østerud, Ø., & Hønneland, G. (2014). Geopolitics and international governance in the Arctic. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 5(2), 156-176.
Østhagen, A. (2023) The Arctic after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The increased risk of conflict and hybrid threats. The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats. https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/20230510-Hybrid-CoE-Paper-18-Arctic-after-Ukraine-WEB.pdf
Østreng, W. (2010) The Northeast Passage and Northern Sea Route. CHNL. http://www.arctis-search.com/tiki-index.php?page=The%20Northeast%20Passage%20and%20Northern%20Sea%20Route%202
Rahbek-Clemmensen, J. (2017). The Ukraine crisis moves north. Is Arctic conflict spill-over driven by material interests?. Polar Record, 53(1), 1-15.
Raikov, Y. A. (2022). Russia and the United States in the Arctic: from Competition to Confrontation. Herald of the Russian Academy of sciences, 92(2), 148-154.
Refai, N. (2022). The Beaufort Sea boundary dispute: A consideration of rights of Inuit in Canada and the United States. Alberta Law Review, 60, 267.
Reiter, D. (2003). Exploring the Bargaining Model of War. Perspectives on Politics, 1(1), 27–43. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3687811
Rosatomflot. (n.d.) Nuclear Icebreaker Fleet. https://rosatom.ru/en/rosatom-group/the-nuclear-icebreaker-fleet/.
Rowe, R. (2019) Legal Article: The Northwest Passage - What is its status under the international law of the sea?. UK P&I Club. https://www.ukpandi.com/news-and-resources/articles/2019/legal-article-the-northwest-passage-what-is-its-status-under-the-international-law-of-the-sea/
Scopelliti, M., & Pérez, E. C. (2016). Defining security in a changing Arctic: helping to prevent an Arctic security dilemma. Polar Record, 52(6), 672-679.
Snigyr, O. (2019) Current Russian Practices in Maritime Zones. Beyond the Horizon. https://behorizon.org/current-russian-practices-in-maritime-zones/
Sovereignty Claims. Journal of Environmental Law and Litigation, 35, 227-260.
State Council of the People’s Republic of China. (2018) China’s Arctic Policy. The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. https://www.uaf.edu/caps/resources/policy-documents/china-arctic-policy-2018.pdf.
Stojkovic, D. (2021). The Race for the Arctic: A Neorealist Case Study of Russia and the United States. E-International Relations.
The Kremlin. (2020). УКАЗ ПРЕЗИДЕНТА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ Об Основах государственной политики Российской Федерации в Арктике на период до 2035 года [EDICT OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic for the period up to 2035]. https://docs.cntd.ru/document/564371920.
The Maritime Executive. (2019) U.S. 2nd Fleet Reactivates to Counter Russian Navy. The Maritime Executive. https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/u-s-2nd-fleet-reactivated-to-counter-russian-navy
The White House. (2020) National Strategy for the Arctic Region. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/National-Strategy-for-the-Arctic-Region.pdf
Todorov, A. (2023) New Russian Law on Northern Sea Route Navigation: Gathering Arctic Storm or Tempest in a Teapot?. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/new-russian-law-northern-sea-route-navigation-gathering-arctic-storm-or-tempest-teapot
Treves, T. (2008). United Nations Convention on the Law of the sea. United Nations Audiovisual Library of International Law. (http://untreaty. un. org/cod/avl/pdf/ha/uncls/uncls_e. pdf).
Turunen, E. (2019) Resources in the Arctic 2019. Nordregio. https://nordregio.org/maps/resources-in-the-arctic-2019/
United Nations Treaty Collection. (n.d.). United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetailsIII.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXI-6&chapter=21&Temp=mtdsg3&clang=_en
United Nations. (1982). United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December, 1982. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf
Uryupova, E. (2021) What does China’s new heavy icebreaker mean?. Polar Journal. https://polarjournal.ch/en/2021/11/27/what-does-chinas-new-heavy-icebreaker-mean/
Vergun, D. (2018) Coast Guard Commandant Wants Bigger Arctic Presence – How Cool is That?. US Department of Defense. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/1705544/coast-guard-commandant-wants-bigger-arctic-presence-how-cool-is-that/
Volkov, R., & Brichevsky, A. (2023) Russian Navy 2023: List of Active Russian Ships and Submarines”. RussianShips.info. http://russianships.info/eng/today/
Wallensteen, P. (2012). Understanding Conflict Resolution. Sage Publications.
Walt, S. M. (1999). Rigor or rigor mortis?: Rational choice and security studies. International security, 23(4), 5-48.
Wither, J. K. (2021) Svalbard: NATO’s Arctic ‘Achilles’ Heel’. Marshall Center. https://www.marshallcenter.org/sites/default/files/files/2021-09/PC_V11N3_Svalbard.pdf
Young, O. R. (2011). The future of the Arctic: cauldron of conflict or zone of peace?. International Affairs, 87(1), 185-193.

Předběžná náplň práce

Tato diplomová práce zkoumá konflikt v Arktidě mezi pobřežními státy, a jeho vrstvy. Jejím cílem je na základě existující literatury identifikovat příčiny tohoto konfliktu, a zjistit jejich intenzitu, za použití definice konfliktu, kterou tato práce představuje na základě existujících modelů. S využitím teorie racionální volby a vyjednávacího modelu války (bargaining model of war) zjišťuje jak se konflikt vyvíjel, a proč se nedostal do fáze ozbrojeného střetu mezi státy (což dříve naznačovala literature). S využitím zmíněných teorií tato práce představuje vlastní škálu intenzity konfliktu, která společně s vytvořenou definicí konfliktu poskytuje metodu jak zkoumat jednotlivé vrstvy konfliktu v Arktidě, čímž doplňuje stávající literaturu. Zároveň přispívá literatuře aplikováním bargaining model of war na nenásilný konflikt, což v literatuře často chybí. Odpovídá na otázku jak vypadá konflikt v Arktidě v roce 2023 a vysvětluje chybějící ozbrojený střet.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

This Master’s thesis explores the triggers of the conflict in the Arctic between the littoral states. Its goal is to identify key conflict drivers, based on the existing literature, then assess their intensity, based on the existing framework and supplemented by this thesis’ own definition of conflict. By using the theory of rational choice and the bargaining model of war, it is studied why and how has the Arctic issues not escalated into armed confrontation, a topic which has been prominent in the literature at one time. By applying the aforementioned theories, this thesis links the conflict triggers to an intensity level, while applying the bargaining model of war on a non-violent conflict. The conclusions should determine the intensity of each conflict trigger, while explaining the changes in the conflict, including the external influencing factors. Developing its own definition of conflict and an intensity scale, this thesis aims to fill the gap in the existing literature, which usually focuses on the conflict as a singular topic, while introducing and exploring different layers of the conflict derived from identification of the conflict triggers.