The Effect of Face Masks on Covid Transmission: A Meta-Analysis

• Název práce v češtině: Vplyv rúšok na prenos Covidu: Meta-Analýza
• Název v anglickém jazyce: The Effect of Face Masks on Covid Transmission: A Meta-Analysis
• Klíčová slova: meta-analýza, Covid-19, rúška, pandémia, prenos Covid-19, publikačná selektivita, Bayesovské modelové priemerovanie
• Klíčová slova anglicky: meta-analysis, Covid-19, face masks, pandemic, Covid-19 transmission, publication bias, Bayesian model averaging
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2021/2022
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
• Vedoucí / školitel: prof. PhDr. Zuzana Havránková, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 15.06.2022
• Datum zadání: 15.06.2022
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 21.06.2023 09:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: Opletalova, O314, místnost. č. 314
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 03.05.2023
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 21.06.2023
• Oponenti: doc. Paola Bertoli, M.A., M.Sc., D.Phil.

Seznam odborné literatury

Aert, R.C.M. van & Assen, M.A.L.M. van (2018). Correcting for Publication Bias in a Meta-Analysis with the P-uniform* Method. [Online]. Available from: https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/zqjr9/. [Accessed: 25 June 2022].

Amini, S.M. & Parmeter, C.F. (2012). Comparison of Model Averaging Techniques: Assessing Growth Determinants. Journal of Applied Econometrics. [Online]. 27 (5). p.pp. 870–876. Available from: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jae.2288. [Accessed: 25 June 2022].

Andrews, I. & Kasy, M. (2019). Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias. American Economic Review. [Online]. 109 (8). p.pp. 2766–2794. Available from: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20180310&&from=f. [Accessed: 25 June 2022].

Bom, P.R.D. & Rachinger, H. (2019). A kinked meta-regression model for publication bias correction. Research Synthesis Methods. [Online]. 10 (4). p.pp. 497–514. Available from: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jrsm.1352. [Accessed: 25 June 2022].

Chu, D.K., Akl, E.A., Duda, S., Solo, K., Yaacoub, S., Schünemann, H.J., Chu, D.K., Akl, E.A., El-harakeh, A., Bognanni, A., Lotfi, T., Loeb, M., Hajizadeh, A., Bak, A., Izcovich, A., Cuello-Garcia, C.A., Chen, C., Harris, D.J., Borowiack, E., Chamseddine, F., Schünemann, F., Morgano, G.P., Schünemann, G.E.U.M., Chen, G., Zhao, H., Neumann, I., Chan, J., Khabsa, J., Hneiny, L., Harrison, L., Smith, M., Rizk, N., Rossi, P.G., AbiHanna, P., El-khoury, R., Stalteri, R., Baldeh, T., Piggott, T., Zhang, Y., Saad, Z., Khamis, A., Reinap, M., Duda, S., Solo, K., Yaacoub, S. & Schünemann, H.J. (2020). Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet. [Online]. 395 (10242). p.pp. 1973–1987. Available from: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext. [Accessed: 25 June 2022].

Egger, M., Davey Smith, G., Schneider, M. & Minder, C. (1997). Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test. BMJ (Clinical research ed.). 315 (7109). p.pp. 629–634.

Eikenberry, S.E., Mancuso, M., Iboi, E., Phan, T., Eikenberry, K., Kuang, Y., Kostelich, E. & Gumel, A.B. (2020). To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic. Infectious Disease Modelling. [Online]. 5. p.pp. 293–308. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300117. [Accessed: 25 June 2022].

Furukawa, C. (2019). Publication Bias under Aggregation Frictions: Theory, Evidence, and a New Correction Method. SSRN Electronic Journal. [Online]. Available from: https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=3362053. [Accessed: 25 June 2022].

Ioannidis, J.P.A., Stanley, T.D. & Doucouliagos, H. (2017). The Power of Bias in Economics Research. The Economic Journal. [Online]. 127 (605). p.pp. F236–F265. Available from: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecoj.12461. [Accessed: 25 June 2022].

Li, Y., Liang, M., Gao, L., Ayaz Ahmed, M., Uy, J.P., Cheng, C., Zhou, Q. & Sun, C. (2021). Face masks to prevent transmission of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis. American Journal of Infection Control. [Online]. 49 (7). p.pp. 900–906. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0196655320310439. [Accessed: 25 June 2022].

Liang, M., Gao, L., Cheng, C., Zhou, Q., Uy, J.P., Heiner, K. & Sun, C. (2020). Efficacy of face mask in preventing respiratory virus transmission: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease. [Online]. 36. p.p. 101751. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893920302301. [Accessed: 26 June 2022].

Stanley, T.D. (2005). Beyond Publication Bias. Journal of Economic Surveys. [Online]. 19 (3). p.pp. 309–345. Available from: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.0950-0804.2005.00250.x. [Accessed: 25 June 2022].
Steel, M.F.J. (2020). Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics. Journal of Economic Literature. [Online]. 58 (3). p.pp. 644–719. Available from: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jel.20191385. [Accessed: 25 June 2022].

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

Motivation:
As Covid-19 disease began to spread rapidly at the beginning of 2020 affecting the health and wellbeing of the population all around the world, some protective measures were taken. Considering transmission channels (droplet and airborne particles infected by virus penetrate the body mainly via the respiratory system) of the disease, one of the protective measures was the usage of face masks to prevent the spread of the disease.
The aim of my thesis is to assess the papers published on the relationship between face masks and the spread of Covid. So far, several studies investigated the mentioned relationship using different techniques such as mathematical modelling of Covid infection in a population (Eikenberry et al., 2020), logistic regression and others.
Even though several meta-analyses were conducted on the relationship between face masks and Covid transmission, there are several drawbacks. Firstly, some meta-analyses include only a limited number of studies (Li et al., 2021). Secondly, there is a missing link to economic and econometric reasoning in the interpretation of results and lacking more complex policy recommendations based on the obtained results. And lastly, since Covid is still present and evolving, I expect to find more recent studies, that were not included in the other meta-analyses.

Hypotheses:
1. Hypothesis #1: Publication bias is present in the literature estimating the effect of face masks on Covid transmission.
2. Hypothesis #2: The publication bias exaggerates the mean value of the estimated effect of face masks on Covid transmission.
3. Hypothesis #3: The estimated effect of face masks on Covid transmission is driven by the geographical location.


Methodology:
Firstly, the dataset consisting of primary studies needs to be constructed. I will define a search query and use the Google Scholar database to full-text search the studies. Secondly, I will examine already published meta-analyses and make sure to incorporate the studies included by authors who already performed a meta-analysis on the topic (Chu et al., 2020; Li et al., 2021; Liang et al., 2020). Additionally, I will search for the studies published recently, to include more recent evidence in my dataset. In the process of collection, I will also focus on other characteristics of the studies, such as standard errors, number of observations, standard deviation, confidence intervals and other effects relevant to the analysis of heterogeneity.
Once I will collect the dataset, I will examine the publication bias using the graphical method – a funnel plot (Egger et al., 1997). In, addition, I will also perform the following tests: funnel asymmetry test (FAT) (Stanley, 2005) with different estimators and weighting matrices, statistical power and bias (Ioannidis et al., 2017), selection model (Andrews & Kasy, 2019), stem-based method (Furukawa, 2019), a kinked meta-regression model (Bom & Rachinger, 2019) and p-uniform* method (Aert & Assen, 2018).
In the second part of the thesis, I will focus on the examination of heterogeneity. For this purpose, I will use the following methods. Bayesian (BMA) and frequentist model averaging, which is used to deal with uncertainty by allowing to assign weights to different models taking into account their data fit, specification and parsimony (Steel, 2020; Amini & Parmeter, 2012). Moreover, I will include several robustness checks – using different priors and weights.

Expected Contribution:
The effect of facemasks on Covid transmission is important to investigate since it provides a base for policy implications and public health perspective. Since there have been several meta-analyses conducted on the topic (Chu et al., 2020; Li et al., 2021; Liang et al., 2020), I will focus on updating the included studies with more recent evidence. Additionally, the contribution of my thesis lies in the interpretation of the future results to form a policy recommendation and include an economic and econometric rationale behind chosen study design. I will also focus more on the literature review of the relationship between face masks and Covid transmission, which was not included to a larger extent in other meta-analyses. Additionally, my thesis will include the examination of publication bias, which was also not included by other authors.

Outline:
1. Introduction – I will introduce the topic and provide my motivation and contribution to the thesis.
2. Literature review – I will describe already published literature on the topic, its methods, and the main results.
3. Data – This section will describe the process of collection of the dataset (search query, inclusion criteria, etc.) The obtained dataset will be described, and summary statistics will be presented.
4. Methodology – I will describe the methods used to perform a meta-analysis. This section will include both methods related to the examination of publication bias and methods of heterogeneity analysis.
5. Results – I will describe the obtained results and provide their interpretation.
6. Conclusion – This section will summarize the thesis, provide the possible policy implication regarding the obligation of face mask usage, and states any potential drawbacks and limitations. Additionally, possible topics for further research will be mentioned.