Agent-Based Analysis of Market Potential for Electric Vehicles in the Czech Republic
| Název práce v češtině: | Multiagentní analýza tržního potenciálu elektromobilů v České republice |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | Agent-Based Analysis of Market Potential for Electric Vehicles in the Czech Republic |
| Klíčová slova: | elektrická vozidla, elektromobilita, český automobilový trh, cost-benefit analýza, analýza scénářů, multiagentní modelování, NetLogo |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | electric vehicles, electromobility, czech vehicle market, cost-benefit analysis, scenario analysis, agent-based modelling, NetLogo |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2016/2017 |
| Typ práce: | bakalářská práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | PhDr. Jiří Kukačka, Ph.D. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 09.11.2016 |
| Datum zadání: | 09.11.2016 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 18.09.2017 09:00 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Opletalova - Opletalova 26, O109, Opletalova - místn. č. 109 |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 29.07.2017 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 18.09.2017 |
| Oponenti: | Olena Chorna, M.A. |
| Kontrola URKUND: | |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| Railsback, Steven F., and Volker Grimm. Agent-based and Individual-based Modeling: A Practical Introduction. Princeton: Princeton UP, 2012.
Nealer, Rachael, David Reichmuth, and Don Anair. “Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave: How Electric Cars Beat Gasoline Cars on Lifetime Global Warming Emissions.” Union of Concerned Scientists, Nov. 2015. Figenbaum, Erik, and Marika Kolbenstvedt. Electromobility in Norway: experiences and opportunities with electric vehicles. Oslo: Transportøkonomisk institutt, 2013. Noori, Mehdi, and Omer Tatari. "Development of an Agent-based Model for Regional Market Penetration Projections of Electric Vehicles in the United States." Energy 96 (2016): 215-30. Bradley, Thomas H., and Andrew A. Frank. "Design, Demonstrations and Sustainability Impact Assessments for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13.1 (2009): 115-28. Dong, Jing, Changzheng Liu, and Zhenhong Lin. "Charging Infrastructure Planning for Promoting Battery Electric Vehicles: An Activity-based Approach Using Multiday Travel Data." Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 38 (2014): 44-55. Gass, V., J. Schmidt, and E. Schmid. "Analysis of Alternative Policy Instruments to Promote Electric Vehicles in Austria." Renewable Energy 61 (2014): 96-101. Eppstein, Margaret J., David K. Grover, Jeffrey S. Marshall, and Donna M. Rizzo. "An Agent-based Model to Study Market Penetration of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles." Energy Policy 39.6 (2011): 3789-802. Hawkins, Troy R., Ola Moa Gausen, and Anders Hammer Strømman. "Environmental Impacts of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles—a Review." The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 17.8 (2012): 997-1014. Lemoine, D. M., D. M. Kammen, and A. E. Farrell. "An Innovation and Policy Agenda for Commercially Competitive Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles." Environmental Research Letters 3.1 (2008): 014003. |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Topic characteristics
The future and potential of electromobility are very actual and controversial topics. Issues concerning the ecological impact of electric vehicles (EVs) and their effectivity are widely discussed. Proponents argue that emissions forgone by using electricity (if generated by a renewable resource) represent nearly zero environmental damage. However, the production of lithium-ion batteries used in EVs and their disposal could have a similar impact on the environment as using a vehicle with the internal combustion engine (ICEV). In addition, higher demand for electricity power resulting from EV usage can actually enlarge carbon footprint by extending the operating time of heat power plants. Whereas some countries as Norway or the United Sates have already implemented various successful programs in order to increase the market share of EVs, the Czech Republic is still holding back. First aim of this thesis is to find out, whether the low sales of electric cars are caused by well-founded economic incentives or only by different preferences of Czech consumers. The actual situation of the Czech vehicle market, together with the transport infrastructure and consumer behaviour will be taken into account. Another purpose of this thesis is to analyse and assess different policies aimed at increasing EVs’ market share by simple agent-based model, again calibrated to Czech background. We will try to examine direct financial incentives for car users like the purchase subsidies, exemption from taxes or no charging fees for EVs as well as non-financial incentives like the creation of exclusive zones in cities or building more public charging points which make the everyday usage of EV easier. Hypotheses 1.CO2 emissions produced in a whole life-cycle of an EV are lower than total emissions produced by an ICEV. Thus, carbon footprint can be reduced by using EVs. 2.EV is an economically optimal vehicle for the Czech consumer under actual conditions. 3.In the Czech background, overall costs of an EV concerning the purchase, maintenance and usage are lower than overall costs of an ICEV. 4.An agent-based model is a suitable method for analysing the effect of various policies on EVs’ market share. 5.Non-financial incentives are more effective in increasing EVs’ market share than financial incentives. Methodology Overall expenses and conveniences resulting from the purchase, maintenance and usage of an EV and its comparison with an internal combustion engine vehicle will be examined by the cost-benefit analysis. Next, the computational agent-based model describing simplified actual Czech vehicle market or its various individual aspects reflecting the transport infrastructure will be created in the NetLogo software. Consumers will be represented by heterogeneous agents acting in a market for vehicles. Different scenarios reflecting certain policies will be implemented and their effect observed in both short and long time horizons. Outline 1.Introduction a.Design of EV technology and their purpose b.Implementation of EVs across the world 2.Cost-benefit analysis of EV implementation into the Czech Republic a.Ecological and social impact b.Economical point of view for the Czech consumer 3.Agent-based model in NetLogo a.ABM methodology b.Model characteristics c.Basic scenario d.Implementing different policies e.Evaluation 4.Conclusion |