The Role of Financial Development in Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis

• Název práce v češtině: Role finančního rozvoje pro ekonomický růst: Meta-analýza
• Název v anglickém jazyce: The Role of Financial Development in Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis
• Klíčová slova: Finanční rozvoj, ekonomický růst, meta-analýza, publication bias
• Klíčová slova anglicky: Financial development, economic growth, meta-analysis, publication bias
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2010/2011
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
• Vedoucí / školitel: prof. Roman Horváth, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 07.06.2011
• Datum zadání: 07.06.2011
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 13.09.2012 00:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: IES
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 01.08.2012
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 13.09.2012
• Oponenti: prof. PhDr. Tomáš Havránek, Ph.D.

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Předběžná náplň práce

Tato práce se zabývá meta-analýzou nashromážděné empirické evidence o vztahu mezi finanční rozvinutostí a ekonomickým růstem. Doposud byly napsány stovky studií snažící se vysvětlit roli finančního systému v růstu ekonomik, výsledky jsou ale nejednoznačné. Tento závěr je podpořený jak teorií, tak empirickým výzkumem v této oblasti. Ve snaze pochopit tento nejednoznačný vztah bylo napsáno několik studií nabízející přehled literatury. Nicméně autoři těchto literárních přehledů často studie k zařazení do přehledu vybírají subjektivně. Proto i výsledky těchto kvalitativních přehledů literatury jsou postaveny jen na omezené informaci. Navíc, vzhledem k povaze těchto analýz nemohou systematicky zhodnotit, které faktory ovlivňují heterogenitu daného efektu, popřípadě zda jsou výsledky ovlivněny snahou o publikování pouze pozitivních a statisticky signifikantních výsledků. V tomto ohledu je hlavním zaměřením naší práce zkoumání toho, jaká je úloha finanční rozvinutosti v ekonomickém růstu a snaha systematicky vysvětlit, které faktory způsobují nejednotnost v odhadnutých výsledcích.
Za tímto účelem jsme shromáždili množství dostupných studií analyzujících vztah mezi finanční rozvinutostí a ekonomickým růstem. Přesněji řečeno, naše analýza bere v úvahu data z 67 empirických studií s celkově 1334 odhady vlivu finanční rozvinutosti na ekonomický růst. Pro kvantitativní analýzu těchto dat jsme použili meta-analytické techniky umožňující zhodnotit, zda autoři dílčích studií publikují převážně pozitivní a statisticky signifikantní výsledky, dále kvantifikovat opravdový vztah mezi finanční rozvinutostí a ekonomickým růstem a v neposlední řadě jsme použili regresní analýzu umožňující objasnit heterogenitu výsledků dílčích studií.
Naše výsledky ukazují, že tato oblast empirického zkoumání není ovlivněna publikační selekcí. Navíc ukazujeme, že mezi finanční rozvinutostí a ekonomickým růstem existuje pozitivní a středně silný vztah. Dle naší analýzy heterogenita publikovaných výsledků vyplývá nejen z metodologických návrhů studií, ale i z reálných faktorů. Konkrétně, efekt finanční rozvinutosti na ekonomický růst je odlišný pro různé části světa či různá desetiletí. Použití ekonometrických metod nezohledňujících endogeneitu vede k nadhodnocení zkoumaného efektu. Konečně, struktura finančního sektoru dané země má vliv na sílu tohoto efektu – poměrně větší zastoupení akciových trhů na úkor bank vede k posílení efektu finanční rozvinutosti na ekonomický růst.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

This diploma thesis presents a meta-analysis of the accumulated empirical evidence on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. So far, hundreds of studies have been written on the role of financial systems in economic growth; however, their results are ambiguous. This is supported both by theory and empirical research. In order to shed some light on the underlying relationship, narrative literature surveys have been conducted. Nevertheless, the authors of these surveys select representative studies for inclusion subjectively and thus build their results on only a limited set of information. Moreover, due to the nature of their analyses, they cannot systematically assess which factors influence the heterogeneity in reported findings or whether the results are driven by the desire to produce only positive and statistically significant results. Thus, the main focus of our work lies in investigating what the role of financial development in economic growth is, adjusted for possible publication selection, and to systematically explain the heterogeneity behind reported results.
For this analysis a pool of available studies investigating the underlying relationship was collected. More specifically, our analysis takes into account data from 67 empirical studies with 1334 estimates of the effect of financial development on economic growth. In order to quantitatively analyze this dataset we apply standard meta-regression techniques, ranging from a test of funnel asymmetry and a test of the true effect adjusted for possible publication bias to multivariate meta-regression analysis in order to obtain more profound understanding of what determines the effect size estimates in primary studies.
Our results indicate that this area of research is not affected by publication selection and that there is an authentic link between financial development and economic growth. The evidence also suggests that heterogeneity in reported findings arises not only from research design of studies examining this effect but stems also from real factors. More specifically, the effect of financial development on economic growth varies across regions and time periods; using an estimation technique that does not address endogeneity (OLS) inflates the estimated effect size. Lastly, the structure of a country’s financial sector is found to matter as stock market oriented systems tend to be more conductive to economic growth compared to bank oriented systems.