Reconstruction of the Puerto Rican energy grid after hurricane Maria and the 2020 earthquake: A comparative analysis of the different options of grid restructuring, the involved stakeholders and the political feasibility.
| Název práce v češtině: | Rekonstrukce energetické infrastruktury v Portoriku po hurikánu Maria a zemětřesení 2020: Komparativní analýza alternativ restrukturalizace, hlavní aktéři a politická proveditelnost. |
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| Název v anglickém jazyce: | Reconstruction of the Puerto Rican energy grid after hurricane Maria and the 2020 earthquake: A comparative analysis of the different options of grid restructuring, the involved stakeholders and the political feasibility. |
| Klíčová slova: | Energetická infrastruktura, plán obnovy,politické a ekonomické faktory. |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | Energy infractructure, plan of reconstruction, political and economic factors. |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2020/2021 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Katedra politologie (23-KP) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | prof. PhDr. Martin Potůček, CSc., M.Sc. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 01.01.2021 |
| Datum zadání: | 01.01.2021 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 20.09.2021 08:00 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Pekařská 16, JPEK314, 314, Malá učebna, 3.patro |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 27.07.2021 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 20.09.2021 |
| Oponenti: | Mgr. Martin Nekola, Ph.D. |
| Kontrola URKUND: | |
| Zásady pro vypracování |
| According to the standards of FSV and IEPS. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| AEEPR. (2020). Electric System. Retrieved from https://aeepr.com/en-us/QuienesSomos/Pages/ElectricSystem.aspx
CNE (Puerto Rico’s think tank for a new economy) Eia (U.S. Energy Information Administration) database and Puerto Rico energy profile from 2019 Gonzalez-Mejia and Ma, X. (2017). The Emergy Perspective of Sustainable Trends in Puerto Rico From 1960 to 2013. In Ecological Economics 133 (1) p. 11-22 Hartmann, R. (2020) Interim report for policy analysis Puerto Rico. IEA (International Energy Agency). (2001). Towards a Sustainable Energy Future. Retrieved from https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/towards-a-sustainable-energy-future_9789264193581-en Kuada, J. (2012) Research Methodology : A Project Guide for University Students. Vol. 1st edition, Samfundslitteratur Press Kwasinski, A. (2018). Effects of Hurricane Maria on Renewable Energy Systems in Puerto Rico. In: 7th International Conference on Renewable Energy Research and Applications. Lammers, I. and Hoppe, T. (2018) Analysing the Institutional Settings of Local Renewable Energy Planning and Implementation in the EU: A Systematic Literature Review. Retrieved from https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/9/3212 Lasswell, H., Lerner, D. and Pool, I. (1952) The comparative study of symbols: An introduction. Stanford: Stanford University Press. Nigussie, Z., Tsunekawa, A., Haregeweyn, N., Adgo, E., Cochrane, L., Floquet, A. and Abele, S. (2018) Applying Ostrom’s institutional analysis and development framework to soil and water conservation activities in north-western Ethiopia. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837717312024 NOAA (US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) (2020) data base and state summaries. Retrieved from https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/pr/ O’Neill-Carrillo, E. and Rivera-Quinones, M. (2018). Energy Policies in Puerto Rico and their Impact on the Likelihood of a Resilient and Sustainable Electric Power Infrastructure. In: Centro Journal vol. 15(3), pp. 147-171. O’Neill-Carrillo, E., Jaramillo-Nieves, L., Jordan-Forty, I. and Andrade-Rengifa, F. (2020) Pitfalls of renewable energy policies and development: A case study from Puerto Rico. In DYNA Energia y Sostenibilidad 9(1), pp. 1-8. Ostrom, E. (2005) Understanding Institutional Diversity Princton: Princeton University Press. Ostrom, E. (2007) Institutional Rational Choice: An Assessment of the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework. In Theories of the Policy Process vol. 2 (1), pp. 35–71. Ostrom, E. (2011) Background on the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework. In Policy Studies vol. 39 (1), pp. 7–27. PREB (2020a). About the Puerto Rico Energy Bureau. Retrieved from https://energia.pr.gov/en/about-the-commission/ PREB (2020b). Critical Projects. Retrieved from https://energia.pr.gov/en/critical-projects/ Small, S. (2020). Puerto Rico’s economic crisis. Retrieved from https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/index.html?appid=761529cfc93a4c5e975d796aac6ea28f Torres, R. (2020). PROMESA, four years later. Retrieved from https://grupocne.org/2020/09/30/promesa-four-years-later/ Walliman, N. (2018) Research Methods: The Basics:2nd Edition. New York: Routledge. Walsh-Russo, CV. (2018). Planning for the unimaginable: Puerto Rico and Strategies for Climate Change Adaption. Retrieved from https://metropolitics.org/Planning-for-the-Unimaginable-Puerto-Rico-and-Strategies-for-Climate-Change.html Wei-Haas, M. (2020). Why so many earthquakes are rocking Puerto Rico. Retrieved from https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/01/why-so-many-puerto-rico-earthquakes-have-happened-geology/ Yordán, C. (2019). Increasing Puerto Rico’s Electricity Rate will negatively affect its economic recovery in the short-term. Retrieved from https://prdatalab.wordpress.com/2019/05/ |
| Předběžná náplň práce |
| Research Question(s):
The thesis will be based on the following general research question: What underlying institutional settings are contributing to the bad state of the Puerto Rican energy grid and how do these settings shape the decision-making process about the proposed policy alternatives to improve the energy sector in regard of energy security, affordability of electricity, grid robustness against natural disasters. Importance of the topic: With its economy and population in decline, Puerto Rico has been in bankruptcy proceedings since 2017, while also battling the aftermath of natural disasters and political instability. Due to the bankruptcy and the rising debt towards America, the ‘Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability Act’ (PROMESA) introduced a federally appointed Financial Oversight and Management Board (FOMB) which regulates and controls budgetary decisions for the entire island. The board members of FOMB are directly appointed by the US president. The restoration of the energy infrastructure, especially the electricity grid, is a prime example of how the delayed political response hindered economic development not only in rural areas but in the whole state. In response, some entities (in some cases municipalities, in others single households) adapted and switched to a decentralized system, where natural energy sources, such as solar and wind power are used to ensure energy independence. Traditionally, energy policy has usually been focused solely on cheap electricity rather than acknowledging other important factors such as sustainability and robustness of the electricity grid. As a result, the energy grid in Puerto Rico is highly centralized, not well maintained and runs on fossil fuels, which must be imported. The hurricanes Maria and Irma made the shortfalls of such a system obvious to the public eye and shed light on many of the underlying structural problems, such as corruption, high ratios of public debt and emigration. The current outdated energy grid is unfit for the upcoming challenges, such as a high probability of natural disasters and a shrinking population. While most of academic papers and articles focus on the advantages and disadvantages of the various policy options, I could not find any papers which focus on the underlying structural problems within the policy process. This thesis attempts to combine both approaches. First, a structural evaluation of the policy proposals will summarize the advantages and disadvantages of the main alternatives. In the second step, the paper will be applying the analytic concept of Ostrom’s IAD framework to shed light on the institutional settings that influence the decision-making process. The gained insight will be a useful addition for understanding the complex settings that exist in today’s Puerto Rico political sphere and may also be helpful for identifying beneficial institutional settings for transforming the energy sector for a sustainable future. Ostrom (2011) defines an action situation as the social space where individuals interact, solve problems of carry out conflicts with each other. In this regard, it can be used similarly to the term of policy arenas (e.g. by Jordan and Richardson, 1987). Suitable arenas could be the legislature, the executive, the bureaucratic and the arena of interest groups. More concretely, the negotiation process for annual fiscal plans for the public utility company Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) and the approval process for investment proposals in the energy sector, where the FOMB accesses project proposals regarding to their compatibility with the fiscal austerity plan. Analyzing these action situations would also allow for a critical review on whether the neo-pluralist theory (Hix, 1999) applies to the situation in Puerto Rico. Working hypotheses: 1. Hypothesis 1: The structural problems within the policy process in the Puerto Rican energy sector prioritizes the economic interest of US creditors over sustainability. 2. Hypothesis 2: FOMB and PREB (Puerto Rico Energy Bureau) incorporate different positions within the action arenas. 3. Hypothesis 3: FOMB has controlling power over the policy process within the energy sector. 4. Hypothesis 4: Within the analyzed action arena(s), the existing power structure results in policy proposals catering to US interests. 5. Hypothesis 5: The structural problems within the policy process in the Puerto Rican energy sector do prioritize debt repayment over economic recovery. Theory and Methodology: The first part of the dissertation will be a comparative literature study to identify the main action situations. Using the existing literature, three main topics (PROMESA & its effects on current political affairs, the threat of climate change and natural disasters in relation to energy security and the main policy proposals for the future energy grid) will be discussed as a foundation for the analysis of the underlying structural problems of the current policy gridlock in the energy sector. In the IAD framework, “action situations are the social spaces where individuals interact, exchange goods and services, solve problems, dominate one another, or fight [ . . .]” (Ostrom, 1994, p.11). Also, the seven elements inside an action situation will be derived from the literature review: actors, positions, actions, information, control net costs and benefits, potential outcomes. It will be shown that the elements influence and interact with each other within action situations but also across. The element ‘control’ will be of special importance as it will highlight the uneven power structure between the US and Puerto Rico. As a result, the given hypotheses should be either rejected or accepted before the research question can be answered. Other theories/concepts, e.g. historical institutionalism, or discursive institutionalism might also be applied if this will help to answer the research question. Methodologically, the research will focus on qualitative research methods. First, qualitative measures allow the researcher a more in-debt analysis of the institutional settings then quantitative ones. Second, qualitative research should be chosen when the research goal is to gain new insights into a phenomenon rather than proofing an existing theory. Thus, qualitative research seems to be more appropriate than quantitative measures. The disadvantages of this approach are that the results are not verifiable and may lead to subjective conclusions. Most of the data will be gathered through secondary research through desk research: Media coverage, such as news reports and videos will be analyzed using media analysis, while official policy acts and announcements will be used through document analysis. Both methods are sub-sets of the broader content analysis where verbal behavior is described as “what is said on a given subject in a given place at a given time” (Lasswell et al, 1952). Walliman (2018) adds that those mediums provide great insights about a society and its inner workings. As the aim of this paper is the understanding of the institutional settings that hinder a more sustainable energy policy, this seems like an appropriate approach. Desk research literature reviews will also be used for the structural evaluation of the policy alternatives. As in previous work, the chosen criteria will be the following: Energy Security, Robustness against natural disasters, administrative operability, political viability and alignment with Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Hartmann, 2020). Additionally, primary data will be included through unstructured interviews with people working in the Puerto Rican energy sector and (hopefully) policy experts from Puerto Rican thinktanks, such as the Centre for New Economy. Unstructured interviews are favored in this case for several reasons: First, it will create open-ended questions, which should allow for more in-depth answers. In that way, the research will benefit to a greater extent from the expertise of the interviewees as their answered are not limited to pre-defined options. Second, it will allow to adjust each interview to the strength and knowledge of the interviewee. However, the author will prepare a list of key-questions or topics which will be touched in each interview. Everything else will be determined depending on the participants responses. Outline: 1. Introduction 2. Policy problem to be studied 3. Theory and Methodology 3.1 Ostrom’s IAD framework 3.2 Other theories which might be used 3.3 Methodology and methods used 4. Exposition of actors, institutions, and arenas and the political situation in Puerto Rico 4.1 Brief overview of the economic development in Puerto Rico leading to PROMESA 4.2 The Puerto Rican energy sector in the aftermath of Maria and Irma 4.3 Puerto Rico and climate change 4.4 Policy Proposals for transformation of Puerto Rican energy sector 5. Policy analysis: Applying the IAD model for the case of Puerto Rico 5.1 Analysis of proposed energy sector transformations 5.1.1 Continuing with Status Quo: energy grid based on petroleum 5.1.2 Transformation of energy grid based on LNG 5.1.3 Transformation of energy grid based on RES 5.2 Analysis of policy processes and their outcomes: 5.2.1 To which extent was the decision-making process influenced by institutional and arena settings? 5.2.2 Which actors are most successful in the identified settings, and why? 6. Verification or falsification of hypotheses. 6. Conclusion: Consequences for the decision-making process for Puerto Rico’s energy future and reviving of the economy |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Research Question(s):
The thesis will be based on the following general research question: What underlying institutional settings are contributing to the bad state of the Puerto Rican energy grid and how do these settings shape the decision-making process about the proposed policy alternatives to improve the energy sector in regard of energy security, affordability of electricity, grid robustness against natural disasters. Importance of the topic: With its economy and population in decline, Puerto Rico has been in bankruptcy proceedings since 2017, while also battling the aftermath of natural disasters and political instability. Due to the bankruptcy and the rising debt towards America, the ‘Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability Act’ (PROMESA) introduced a federally appointed Financial Oversight and Management Board (FOMB) which regulates and controls budgetary decisions for the entire island. The board members of FOMB are directly appointed by the US president. The restoration of the energy infrastructure, especially the electricity grid, is a prime example of how the delayed political response hindered economic development not only in rural areas but in the whole state. In response, some entities (in some cases municipalities, in others single households) adapted and switched to a decentralized system, where natural energy sources, such as solar and wind power are used to ensure energy independence. Traditionally, energy policy has usually been focused solely on cheap electricity rather than acknowledging other important factors such as sustainability and robustness of the electricity grid. As a result, the energy grid in Puerto Rico is highly centralized, not well maintained and runs on fossil fuels, which must be imported. The hurricanes Maria and Irma made the shortfalls of such a system obvious to the public eye and shed light on many of the underlying structural problems, such as corruption, high ratios of public debt and emigration. The current outdated energy grid is unfit for the upcoming challenges, such as a high probability of natural disasters and a shrinking population. While most of academic papers and articles focus on the advantages and disadvantages of the various policy options, I could not find any papers which focus on the underlying structural problems within the policy process. This thesis attempts to combine both approaches. First, a structural evaluation of the policy proposals will summarize the advantages and disadvantages of the main alternatives. In the second step, the paper will be applying the analytic concept of Ostrom’s IAD framework to shed light on the institutional settings that influence the decision-making process. The gained insight will be a useful addition for understanding the complex settings that exist in today’s Puerto Rico political sphere and may also be helpful for identifying beneficial institutional settings for transforming the energy sector for a sustainable future. Ostrom (2011) defines an action situation as the social space where individuals interact, solve problems of carry out conflicts with each other. In this regard, it can be used similarly to the term of policy arenas (e.g. by Jordan and Richardson, 1987). Suitable arenas could be the legislature, the executive, the bureaucratic and the arena of interest groups. More concretely, the negotiation process for annual fiscal plans for the public utility company Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) and the approval process for investment proposals in the energy sector, where the FOMB accesses project proposals regarding to their compatibility with the fiscal austerity plan. Analyzing these action situations would also allow for a critical review on whether the neo-pluralist theory (Hix, 1999) applies to the situation in Puerto Rico. Working hypotheses: 1. Hypothesis 1: The structural problems within the policy process in the Puerto Rican energy sector prioritizes the economic interest of US creditors over sustainability. 2. Hypothesis 2: FOMB and PREB (Puerto Rico Energy Bureau) incorporate different positions within the action arenas. 3. Hypothesis 3: FOMB has controlling power over the policy process within the energy sector. 4. Hypothesis 4: Within the analyzed action arena(s), the existing power structure results in policy proposals catering to US interests. 5. Hypothesis 5: The structural problems within the policy process in the Puerto Rican energy sector do prioritize debt repayment over economic recovery. Theory and Methodology: The first part of the dissertation will be a comparative literature study to identify the main action situations. Using the existing literature, three main topics (PROMESA & its effects on current political affairs, the threat of climate change and natural disasters in relation to energy security and the main policy proposals for the future energy grid) will be discussed as a foundation for the analysis of the underlying structural problems of the current policy gridlock in the energy sector. In the IAD framework, “action situations are the social spaces where individuals interact, exchange goods and services, solve problems, dominate one another, or fight [ . . .]” (Ostrom, 1994, p.11). Also, the seven elements inside an action situation will be derived from the literature review: actors, positions, actions, information, control net costs and benefits, potential outcomes. It will be shown that the elements influence and interact with each other within action situations but also across. The element ‘control’ will be of special importance as it will highlight the uneven power structure between the US and Puerto Rico. As a result, the given hypotheses should be either rejected or accepted before the research question can be answered. Other theories/concepts, e.g. historical institutionalism, or discursive institutionalism might also be applied if this will help to answer the research question. Methodologically, the research will focus on qualitative research methods. First, qualitative measures allow the researcher a more in-debt analysis of the institutional settings then quantitative ones. Second, qualitative research should be chosen when the research goal is to gain new insights into a phenomenon rather than proofing an existing theory. Thus, qualitative research seems to be more appropriate than quantitative measures. The disadvantages of this approach are that the results are not verifiable and may lead to subjective conclusions. Most of the data will be gathered through secondary research through desk research: Media coverage, such as news reports and videos will be analyzed using media analysis, while official policy acts and announcements will be used through document analysis. Both methods are sub-sets of the broader content analysis where verbal behavior is described as “what is said on a given subject in a given place at a given time” (Lasswell et al, 1952). Walliman (2018) adds that those mediums provide great insights about a society and its inner workings. As the aim of this paper is the understanding of the institutional settings that hinder a more sustainable energy policy, this seems like an appropriate approach. Desk research literature reviews will also be used for the structural evaluation of the policy alternatives. As in previous work, the chosen criteria will be the following: Energy Security, Robustness against natural disasters, administrative operability, political viability and alignment with Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Hartmann, 2020). Additionally, primary data will be included through unstructured interviews with people working in the Puerto Rican energy sector and (hopefully) policy experts from Puerto Rican thinktanks, such as the Centre for New Economy. Unstructured interviews are favored in this case for several reasons: First, it will create open-ended questions, which should allow for more in-depth answers. In that way, the research will benefit to a greater extent from the expertise of the interviewees as their answered are not limited to pre-defined options. Second, it will allow to adjust each interview to the strength and knowledge of the interviewee. However, the author will prepare a list of key-questions or topics which will be touched in each interview. Everything else will be determined depending on the participants responses. Outline: 1. Introduction 2. Policy problem to be studied 3. Theory and Methodology 3.1 Ostrom’s IAD framework 3.2 Other theories which might be used 3.3 Methodology and methods used 4. Exposition of actors, institutions, and arenas and the political situation in Puerto Rico 4.1 Brief overview of the economic development in Puerto Rico leading to PROMESA 4.2 The Puerto Rican energy sector in the aftermath of Maria and Irma 4.3 Puerto Rico and climate change 4.4 Policy Proposals for transformation of Puerto Rican energy sector 5. Policy analysis: Applying the IAD model for the case of Puerto Rico 5.1 Analysis of proposed energy sector transformations 5.1.1 Continuing with Status Quo: energy grid based on petroleum 5.1.2 Transformation of energy grid based on LNG 5.1.3 Transformation of energy grid based on RES 5.2 Analysis of policy processes and their outcomes: 5.2.1 To which extent was the decision-making process influenced by institutional and arena settings? 5.2.2 Which actors are most successful in the identified settings, and why? 6. Verification or falsification of hypotheses. 6. Conclusion: Consequences for the decision-making process for Puerto Rico’s energy future and reviving of the economy |