The Belt and Road Initiative: Effects on eastern Europe and post-soviet republics gravity analysis
| Název práce v češtině: | Nová Hedvábná Stezka: dopad na východní Evropu a postsovětské republiky, analýza pomocí gravitačního modelu |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | The Belt and Road Initiative: Effects on eastern Europe and post-soviet republics gravity analysis |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2018/2019 |
| Typ práce: | bakalářská práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | Mgr. Michal Paulus |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 28.05.2019 |
| Datum zadání: | 28.05.2019 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 09.06.2020 09:00 |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 07.05.2020 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 09.06.2020 |
| Oponenti: | Ing. Vilém Semerák, M.A., Ph.D. |
| Kontrola URKUND: | |
| Zásady pro vypracování |
| Research question and motivation
My main research question is evaluation of effect of new infrastructure and trade agreements included in Chinese Belt and Road Initiative on trade between China and states in eastern Europe and central Asia. When Belt and Road initiative (BRI, then called One Belt One Road - OBOR) was announced by Chinese president Xi Jinping during his visit of Kazakhstan in 2013, it appeared that it is the most ambitious Chinese international project of 21st century yet. By connecting more than 63 countries (initially, now it is even more) accounting for 64% of world population and 30% of global GDP China seeks to solve its massive overcapacity and to ensure its place as global economic superpower (Herrero, 2016). Since BRI is relatively new initiative, there is not a huge number of academic papers evaluating real effects of those new infrastructural investments on trade between countries involved in BRI. Existing estimates suggest, that shortening the transportation time of goods on BIR by one day may increase exports by 5.2%. Moreover if new trade reforms are added to planned improvements in infrastructure, then the upper estimates of increase in trade between BRI economies are as high as 12.9% (Baniya, 2019) In this thesis I intend to evaluate increase in trade potential among BIR economies using classical gravity model of trade. My main interest are countries in central and eastern Europe involved in so-called 16+1 initiative and former soviet republics in eastern Europe and central Asia. The vast scope of whole BRI includes common development strategies, industrial cooperation and sharing of knowledge (Fang, 2015), but I intend to focus on the effects of new infrastructure and trade deals. Contribution Since BRI is a project in its beginning stage, so is research on this topic. Existing research suggests, that construction of new infrastructure may truly decrease cost of trade (Konings, 2018) and that new railways is indeed significant factor leading to potential increase in exports (Li, 2018). I intend to add a complex analysis on its effect focusing on specific participating countries. By conducting further examination of this topic my thesis tries to answer the question of what changes we may expect in trade between China and Europe and hopefully will lead to a better understanding of future Sino-European trade relations. Methodology I intend to use micro-founded gravity model of international trade, based on seminal contribution of Andersen and van Wincoop (2003) with handbook by Shepherd (2016) as an auxiliary source. Dataset I will use for trade data is World Bank’s (WB) World Integrated Trade Solution. For other control variables I will use International Monetary Fund’s Direction of Trade Statistics, WB’s World Development indicators, CEPII and for institutional variables WB’s Worldwide Governance Indicators database if needed. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle. American economic review, 93(1), 170-192.
Baniya, S., Rocha, N., & Ruta, M. (2019). Trade Effects of the New Silk Road: A Gravity Analysis. The World Bank. Fang, X. (2015). The Belt and Road initiative: connecting China and Central Europe. International Issues & Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs, 24(03), 3-14. Herrero, A. G., & Xu, J. (2017). China's Belt and Road Initiative: Can Europe Expect Trade Gains?. China & World Economy, 25(6), 84-99. Konings, J. (2018). Trade impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative. Think: London, UK. Li, Y., Bolton, K., & Westphal, T. (2018). The effect of the New Silk Road railways on aggregate trade volumes between China and Europe. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 16(3), 275-292. Shepherd, B. (2016). Gravity model of international trade: a user guide. Bangkok: United Nations Publication, |
| Předběžná náplň práce |
| Research question and motivation
My main research question is evaluation of effect of new infrastructure and trade agreements included in Chinese Belt and Road Initiative on trade between China and states in eastern Europe and central Asia. When Belt and Road initiative (BRI, then called One Belt One Road - OBOR) was announced by Chinese president Xi Jinping during his visit of Kazakhstan in 2013, it appeared that it is the most ambitious Chinese international project of 21st century yet. By connecting more than 63 countries (initially, now it is even more) accounting for 64% of world population and 30% of global GDP China seeks to solve its massive overcapacity and to ensure its place as global economic superpower (Herrero, 2016). Since BRI is relatively new initiative, there is not a huge number of academic papers evaluating real effects of those new infrastructural investments on trade between countries involved in BRI. Existing estimates suggest, that shortening the transportation time of goods on BIR by one day may increase exports by 5.2%. Moreover if new trade reforms are added to planned improvements in infrastructure, then the upper estimates of increase in trade between BRI economies are as high as 12.9% (Baniya, 2019) In this thesis I intend to evaluate increase in trade potential among BIR economies using classical gravity model of trade. My main interest are countries in central and eastern Europe involved in so-called 16+1 initiative and former soviet republics in eastern Europe and central Asia. The vast scope of whole BRI includes common development strategies, industrial cooperation and sharing of knowledge (Fang, 2015), but I intend to focus on the effects of new infrastructure and trade deals. Contribution Since BRI is a project in its beginning stage, so is research on this topic. Existing research suggests, that construction of new infrastructure may truly decrease cost of trade (Konings, 2018) and that new railways is indeed significant factor leading to potential increase in exports (Li, 2018). I intend to add a complex analysis on its effect focusing on specific participating countries. By conducting further examination of this topic my thesis tries to answer the question of what changes we may expect in trade between China and Europe and hopefully will lead to a better understanding of future Sino-European trade relations. Methodology I intend to use micro-founded gravity model of international trade, based on seminal contribution of Andersen and van Wincoop (2003) with handbook by Shepherd (2016) as an auxiliary source. Dataset I will use for trade data is World Bank’s (WB) World Integrated Trade Solution. For other control variables I will use International Monetary Fund’s Direction of Trade Statistics, WB’s World Development indicators, CEPII and for institutional variables WB’s Worldwide Governance Indicators database if needed. Introduction a. why is my topic interesting b. brief overview of existing knowledge c. how I add to existing research d. how is the thesis organized Literature review and hypotheses a. literature on BRI and gravity model b. what hypotheses will be tested c. motivation why is it reasonable to test them Methodology a. relevant description of data b. why I use the independent and dependent variables I use, how they are measured c. how I perform tests Results a. rejecting / not rejecting hypotheses b. my interpretation of the results Conclusion a. broader interpretation of results b. implications for practice c. topics for further research |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Research question and motivation
My main research question is evaluation of effect of new infrastructure and trade agreements included in Chinese Belt and Road Initiative on trade between China and states in eastern Europe and central Asia. When Belt and Road initiative (BRI, then called One Belt One Road - OBOR) was announced by Chinese president Xi Jinping during his visit of Kazakhstan in 2013, it appeared that it is the most ambitious Chinese international project of 21st century yet. By connecting more than 63 countries (initially, now it is even more) accounting for 64% of world population and 30% of global GDP China seeks to solve its massive overcapacity and to ensure its place as global economic superpower (Herrero, 2016). Since BRI is relatively new initiative, there is not a huge number of academic papers evaluating real effects of those new infrastructural investments on trade between countries involved in BRI. Existing estimates suggest, that shortening the transportation time of goods on BIR by one day may increase exports by 5.2%. Moreover if new trade reforms are added to planned improvements in infrastructure, then the upper estimates of increase in trade between BRI economies are as high as 12.9% (Baniya, 2019) In this thesis I intend to evaluate increase in trade potential among BIR economies using classical gravity model of trade. My main interest are countries in central and eastern Europe involved in so-called 16+1 initiative and former soviet republics in eastern Europe and central Asia. The vast scope of whole BRI includes common development strategies, industrial cooperation and sharing of knowledge (Fang, 2015), but I intend to focus on the effects of new infrastructure and trade deals. Contribution Since BRI is a project in its beginning stage, so is research on this topic. Existing research suggests, that construction of new infrastructure may truly decrease cost of trade (Konings, 2018) and that new railways is indeed significant factor leading to potential increase in exports (Li, 2018). I intend to add a complex analysis on its effect focusing on specific participating countries. By conducting further examination of this topic my thesis tries to answer the question of what changes we may expect in trade between China and Europe and hopefully will lead to a better understanding of future Sino-European trade relations. Methodology I intend to use micro-founded gravity model of international trade, based on seminal contribution of Andersen and van Wincoop (2003) with handbook by Shepherd (2016) as an auxiliary source. Dataset I will use for trade data is World Bank’s (WB) World Integrated Trade Solution. For other control variables I will use International Monetary Fund’s Direction of Trade Statistics, WB’s World Development indicators, CEPII and for institutional variables WB’s Worldwide Governance Indicators database if needed. Introduction a. why is my topic interesting b. brief overview of existing knowledge c. how I add to existing research d. how is the thesis organized Literature review and hypotheses a. literature on BRI and gravity model b. what hypotheses will be tested c. motivation why is it reasonable to test them Methodology a. relevant description of data b. why I use the independent and dependent variables I use, how they are measured c. how I perform tests Results a. rejecting / not rejecting hypotheses b. my interpretation of the results Conclusion a. broader interpretation of results b. implications for practice c. topics for further research |