Possible Consequences in Georgian-Russian Relations in case Georgia Receives the Membership Action Plan

• Název práce v češtině: Možné dopady Akčního plánu členství na vztahy Gruzie a Ruské federace
• Název v anglickém jazyce: Possible Consequences in Georgian-Russian Relations in case Georgia Receives the Membership Action Plan
• Klíčová slova: Georgia, NATO membership, Russia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia
• Klíčová slova anglicky: Georgia, NATO membership, Russia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2015/2016
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Katedra politologie (23-KP)
• Vedoucí / školitel: doc. Martin Riegl, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 16.06.2016
• Datum zadání: 16.06.2016
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 09.02.2018 08:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: Jinonice - U Kříže 8, J3093, Jinonice - místn. č. 3093
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 03.01.2018
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 09.02.2018
• Oponenti: PhDr. Michael Romancov, Ph.D.

Zásady pro vypracování

Thesis focuses on the issue of Georgia’s possible receipt of Membership Action Plan (MAP), the last stage of accession process to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the possible consequences of this event. The collapse of the Soviet Union and gaining the independence from the regime opened the window of opportunity for Georgia and gave to it a possibility to strive towards Euro-Atlantic integration. Although Georgia still works to gain MAP and has a status of an aspirant country, its already historical as well as present ties to the Alliance remain strong and positive.
Thesis strives to represent the possibility of Georgia’s MAP receipt and then subsequently NATO membership, as well as the consequences of political and military dimensions with regard to its final stage of accession to the Alliance, especially focusing on the Russian factor in the geopolitics of NATO’s enlargement. Main research areas of the thesis include the importance of NATO enlargement on its Eastern and Southeastern flanks, mainly in the present geopolitical environment where Russia already had and is still challenging status quo of the World Order by breaching international law as well as the Founding act of Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation signed in Paris in 1997. Second area of research is focused on the costs and benefits of Georgia’s NATO membership for Georgia, NATO and Russia. Lastly, third area of the research underlines the crucial significance of defense of Georgian territory, in case Georgia is given a MAP but is left without a substantial defense before its (possible) actual membership. This last part of research examines the possible scenario emphasizing the actions and reactions of the Russian Federation against Georgia by using Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia particularly and the whole South Caucasus security architecture, generally.

Research questions thesis focuses on are the following: 1. Why NATO’s enlargement to South Caucasus is important for European security architecture? 2. How Georgia’s possible NATO membership will affect political and military relations between Georgia and Russia. 3. Why is it important to defend Georgia in period between MAP granting and possible actual accession?

Thesis is directed towards exploring the future and future possibilities, and what is much more intriguing, tries to predict what sort of actions and reactions might be at face in case the future possibility becomes the real fact. This work is based on the actual processes, focusing on historical as well as current trends in order to explain in what way the vantage point of the future can become a reality.
Title of the thesis says that in a future Georgia might become a member of NATO, which then will change and affect the following future processes. Of course, one can argue whether Georgia is actually able to become the member of the Alliance, and say that this is highly hypothetical phenomenon, but still it can happen and thesis shows how the membership of Georgia in NATO is possible based on what processes have been unfolding, what are the hinders and what are those necessities affecting the membership aspirations. The complexity of present geopolitical environment conditions such situations, where even the most unreal and highly hypothetical phenomena and decision-making trends become necessary and vice versa - the most real and unavoidable trends are turned out to be obsolete and outdated modes of thought.
Thus the thesis analyzes how the antecedent from which the rest of the future processes might come to be true or possible, is possible itself. By demonstrating the antecedent back story the thesis aims to show the paradigm’s validity and future consequences through this paradigm.
It is necessary to underline that the way antecedent - that is the point in the future when Georgia receives Membership Action Plan and then supposedly acceptance to become a full NATO member, - becomes a reality and affects the future phenomena and the way the processes continue. NATO-Georgian relations, which are discussed in thesis demonstrate positive partnership between the two, but other realities – particularly the steps and thoughts taken from the Russian government’s behavior and the way she perceives NATO enlargement, also Georgia’s past experience related to the Russo-Georgian war in 2008 demonstrate the difficulties and peculiarities of Georgia’s possible accession to the NATO club. The possibility of Georgia’s Membership Action Plan receipt is only a part of the thesis, and also only the one side of the possibility, the other side being continuation of current positive NATO-Georgian relation without granting Georgia MAP or acceptance, the two radically different possibilities having the power of changing the paradigm and the ways other international players will act in a future. To describe the antecedent back story in the thesis, various second as well as first hand materials connected to NATO-Georgian relations as well as NATO’s decision-making system are analyzed, demonstrating examples and the processes of NATO enlargement politics. To make the story full, the thesis analyzes also the third-party countries, mainly the Russian Federations’ activities and reactions to the NATO policies and ‘open door’ politics as well as the Russian Federations geopolitical interests with regard to the NATO aspirant countries within the post-Soviet space. Thus, the antecedent back story will be based on detailed analyses of three interdependent international personalities – Georgia, NATO and Russia’s - intentions and assertions.
Thus, the claim about an alternate possibility and its consequences may be termed a “counterfactual” as Noel Hendrickson puts in his book Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists and Decision Makers. This thesis, consequently, is based on the method of counterfactual reasoning and produces a theory building with two independent variables first one being the antecedent itself or, as I put it above, the point in the future when Georgia gets MAP.
Fifth part of the thesis analyzes the possible implicit consequences of Georgian MAP gaining without any NATO rotational defense or other representative forces making for Russia less desirable the destabilization of the South Caucasus region in a whole. In this part of the thesis second independent variable is used, namely, NATO’s military presence in Georgia.
Thus the key independent variables are: 1) Georgia’s receipt of Membership Action Plan and 2) NATO’s military presence on Georgian territory which determine the reaction of the Russian Federation and consequently, the security environment of the South Caucasus region.

Seznam odborné literatury

1) Aliev, Farkhad, “The Caucasus through the Eurasian Prism”, Central Asia and the Caucasus, No 1, (31), 2005
2) Ashworth, Lucian, M., Realism and the Spirit of 1919: Halford Mackinder, Geopolitics and the Reality of the League of Nations
3) Batashvili, David, Russia Troop Deployments Menace Georgia, Civil Georgia, 2017
4) Boden, Dieter, The Russian-Abkhaz Treaty, New Tensions in the South Caucasus, 2014
5) Brzezinski, Zbigniew, The Great Chessboard
6) Bugajski, Janusz and Doran, B. Peter, Black Sea Rising: Russia’s Strategy in South east Europe, Center for European policy Analysis, February 2016
7) Central European Security After Crimea: The Case for Strengthening NATO’s Eastern Defenses, Lucas, Edward and Mitchell, A. Wess, Center for European Policy Analysis, Report No. 35, March 25, 2014.
8) Cohen, Saul, Bernard, Geopolitics: The Geography of International Relations, Survey of Geopolitics
9) De Waal, Thomas, Crimea, Russia and Options for Engagement in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Carnegie Europe, 2016.
10) Dugin, Alexander, Osnovy Geopolitiki
11) Globalsecurity, topic: 102 Military Base, site maintained by John Pike.
12) Interfax: Ukraine, April 1, 2017
13) Jones, Eric, Abkhazia to Integrate Military with Russia, 12.01.2014
14) Konecna, Zuzana, Accession of Georgia to NATO, 2016, Georgia’s NATO Aspirations: Rhetoric and Reality, Hamilton, Colonel Robert E. 2016 cit [2016-09-10]
15) Kristof, Ladis, K. D, The Origins and Evolution of Geopolitics
16) Krasner, Stephen, Realism, Imperialism and Democracy, Political Theory, Vol. 20, No.1.
17) Lucas, Edward and Mitchell, A. Wess, Central European Security After Crimea: The Case for Strengthening NATO’s Eastern Defenses, Center for European Policy Analysis, Report No. 35, March 25, 2014
18) Mackinder, Halford J., The Round World and the Winning of the Peace, Foreign Affairs, vol. 21, No. 4 (1943)
19) Mackinder, Halford J., Democratic Ideals and Reality
20) Mackinder, Halford, J., The Geographical Pivot of History, The Geographical Journal, Vol. XXIII, N4, 1904
21) Meinig, Donald, W., Heartland and Rimland in Eurasian History, The Western Political Quarterly, Vol. 9, N. 3
22) NATO Backgrounder: Deepening Relations with Georgia, NATO 2011
23) NATO, EU Criticize Accord between Russia and Breakaway Abkhazia Region, The Moscow Times, Nov. 25, 2014.
24) Hendrickson, Noel, Ph.D. Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists and Decision Makers Vol.2, Issue 5. 1:2008.
25) Ismailov, Eldar and Papava, Vladimer, Rethinking Central Eurasia, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program
26) OSCE, November 28, 2014
27) OSCE, October 23, 2015.
28) Parisis, Ioannis, Ph.D. The Maritime Dimension of European Security, Strategies, Initiatives, Synergies, 2015
29) Parker, William, H., Mackinder: Geography as an Aid to Statecraft in Vernier, Pascal, The Geographical Pivot of History and Early Twentieth Century Geopolitical Culture, The Geographical Journal, vol. 170, No. 4
30) Prospects for NATO–Russia Relations; Keynote Address by NATO Deputy Secretary General Ambassador Alexander Vershbow; Address at the Leangkollen Conference, February 2, in Oslo, Norway.
31) Protocol Concerning the Accession of Georgia to the Treaty Establishing the Energy Community, 14th October, 2016, Sarajevo.
32) Review of Georgia’s National Security Architecture – Strategic Level, Atlantic Council of Georgia. April 15, 2015.
33) Resolute Support Mission, Key Facts and Figures, NATO online, 2016
34) Rodrigues, Luis Nuno a Volodymyr, Dubovyk, Perceptions of NATO and the New Strategic Concept.
35) Saari, Sinikukka, The New Alliance and Integration Treaty Between Russia and South Ossetia, When does integration turn into annexation?, The Finish Institute of International Affairs, March 2015.
36) Seib, Philip, The Case for Georgia Joining NATO, 2016.
37) The Warsaw Declaration on Transatlantic Security, Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of North Atlantic Council in Warsaw, 8-9 July, 2016.
38) This School is a Milestone in French-Georgian Cooperation, Ministry of Defense of Georgia, 2016.
39) Triatapyllou, Dimitrios, The Security Context in the Black Sea Region
40) ევროკავშირსა და ნატოში საქართველოს გაწევრიანების კომუნიკაციის შესახებ სტრატეგია 2017-2020 წლებისთვის, Office of the State Minister of Georgia on European and Euro-Atlantic Affairs, April 13, 2017.

Předběžná náplň práce

Abstract

Thesis focuses on the issue of Georgia’s possible receipt of Membership Action Plan (MAP), the last stage of accession process to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the possible consequences of this event. The collapse of the Soviet Union and gaining the independence from the regime opened the window of opportunity for Georgia and gave to it a possibility to strive towards Euro-Atlantic integration. Although Georgia still works to gain MAP and has a status of an aspirant country, its already historical as well as present ties to the Alliance remain strong and positive.
Thesis strives to represent the possibility of Georgia’s MAP receipt and then subsequently NATO membership, as well as the consequences of political and military dimensions with regard to its final stage of accession to the Alliance, especially focusing on the Russian factor in the geopolitics of NATO’s enlargement. Main research areas of the thesis include the importance of NATO enlargement on its Eastern and Southeastern flanks, mainly in the present geopolitical environment where Russia already had and is still challenging status quo of the World Order by breaching international law as well as the Founding act of Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation signed in Paris in 1997. Second area of research is focused on the costs and benefits of Georgia’s NATO membership for Georgia, NATO and Russia. Lastly, third area of the research underlines the crucial significance of defense of Georgian territory, in case Georgia is given a MAP but is left without a substantial defense before its (possible) actual membership. This last part of research examines the possible scenario emphasizing the actions and reactions of the Russian Federation against Georgia by using Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia particularly and the whole South Caucasus security architecture, generally.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

Abstract

Thesis focuses on the issue of Georgia’s possible receipt of Membership Action Plan (MAP), the last stage of accession process to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the possible consequences of this event. The collapse of the Soviet Union and gaining the independence from the regime opened the window of opportunity for Georgia and gave to it a possibility to strive towards Euro-Atlantic integration. Although Georgia still works to gain MAP and has a status of an aspirant country, its already historical as well as present ties to the Alliance remain strong and positive.
Thesis strives to represent the possibility of Georgia’s MAP receipt and then subsequently NATO membership, as well as the consequences of political and military dimensions with regard to its final stage of accession to the Alliance, especially focusing on the Russian factor in the geopolitics of NATO’s enlargement. Main research areas of the thesis include the importance of NATO enlargement on its Eastern and Southeastern flanks, mainly in the present geopolitical environment where Russia already had and is still challenging status quo of the World Order by breaching international law as well as the Founding act of Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation signed in Paris in 1997. Second area of research is focused on the costs and benefits of Georgia’s NATO membership for Georgia, NATO and Russia. Lastly, third area of the research underlines the crucial significance of defense of Georgian territory, in case Georgia is given a MAP but is left without a substantial defense before its (possible) actual membership. This last part of research examines the possible scenario emphasizing the actions and reactions of the Russian Federation against Georgia by using Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia particularly and the whole South Caucasus security architecture, generally.

Keywords: Georgia, NATO, MAP, Russia, South Caucasus, NATO membership, NATO enlargement, Abkhazia, South Ossetia.