The effect of the New Silk Road on EU-China trade
| Název práce v češtině: | The effect of the New Silk Road on EU-China trade |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | The effect of the New Silk Road on EU-China trade |
| Klíčová slova: | EU-China trade,gravity model, OBOR,trade potential, infrastructure |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | EU-China trade,gravity model, OBOR,trade potential, infrastructure |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2015/2016 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | Mgr. Michal Paulus |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 15.06.2016 |
| Datum zadání: | 15.06.2016 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 12.09.2017 08:15 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Jinonice - U Kříže 8, J4019, Jinonice - místn. č. 4019 |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 30.07.2017 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 12.09.2017 |
| Oponenti: | doc. Ing. Vladimír Benáček, CSc. |
| Kontrola URKUND: | |
| Zásady pro vypracování |
| According to the FSV guidelines for master theses. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| Anderson, James E., and Eric Van Wincoop. "Gravity with gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle." the american economic review 93.1 (2003): 170-192.
Baier, Scott L., and Jeffrey H. Bergstrand. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity." Journal of international Economics 53.1 (2001): 1-27. Baier, Scott L., and Jeffrey H. Bergstrand. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation." Journal of International Economics 77.1 (2009): 77-85. Anderson, James E., and Eric Van Wincoop. "Trade costs." Journal of Economic literature 42.3 (2004): 691-751. Hummels, David L. "Toward a geography of trade costs." (1999). Novy, Dennis. "Gravity redux: measuring international trade costs with panel data." Economic inquiry 51.1 (2013): 101-121. Bendini, Roberto, and Barbara Barone. "Trade and economic relations with China 2014." Directorate-General for External Policies, May 15 (2014). Garcia Herroro, Alicia, and Jianwei Xu. "China’s Belt and Road initiative: can Europe expect trade gains? Bruegel Working Paper ISSUE 5/2016." (2016). Minghao, Zhao. "China’s New Silk Road Initiative." Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome (2015). Hummels, David. "Transportation costs and international trade in the second era of globalization." The Journal of Economic Perspectives 21.3 (2007): 131-154. |
| Předběžná náplň práce |
| Topic characteristics / Research Question(s):
The aim of the thesis is to analyze the impact of the so called “One Belt One Road” initiative on the trade relationship between the European Union and China. Announced in 2013 the OBOR project is planned to be an infrastructure project including more than 60 countries. This project could facilitate and change trade patterns around the globe. China as the biggest trading nation in the world has a huge impact on international trade. The project includes investments in infrastructure and ongoing trade negotiations with China and its partners. Despite the fact that the major European economies like the UK, France, Italy or Germany are not officially part of the initiative the consequences for the EU and its member states can be significant. An improvement of infrastructure could boost trade relations towards the East and China. In the background that the TTIP partnership with the US faces certain difficulties economic ties could get closer with China and Asia. The goal of the thesis is to estimate trade potentials that arise from an improvement of infrastructure along the New Silk Road. Transportation costs are an important factor in international trade and hence a reduction could lead to increasing trade between the EU and China which already form one of the biggest trading blocs in the world. The topic is relevant from a European perspective as this could influence Sino-EU political and economic relations, opens up opportunities for growth in the EU due to infrastructure investments and could have positive effects on European exports to Asia and China. Working hypotheses: 1. H1: An improvement of infrastructure to China will lead to more EU exports to China 2. H2: Imports from China will grow less than exports to China 3. H3: The big EU economies will disproportionately benefit from the project 4. H4: The impact of infrastructure outweighs a possible FTA between the EU and China Methodology: I will apply the gravity model of international trade to estimate trade potential from a n improvement of infrastructure. I will use different data sources like comtrade, WITS, Eurostat to form a comprehensive data set that includes not only countries along the Silk Road and the EU. I will use the STATA software to compute different scenarios to estimate trade potentials. Besides the common variables that are standard in the gravity literature I will try to estimate the impact of transportation costs on trade. In a next step I will try to estimate what effect a reduction in transportation costs, ceteris paribus has on EU China trade volumes. Outline: 1. Introduction 2. What is OBOR? 3. EU-China trade in a nutshell 4. Literature Review 5. Gravity model issues 6. Data and Methodology 7. Conclusion 8. References 9. Appendices |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Topic characteristics / Research Question(s):
The aim of the thesis is to analyze the impact of the so called “One Belt One Road” initiative on the trade relationship between the European Union and China. Announced in 2013 the OBOR project is planned to be an infrastructure project including more than 60 countries. This project could facilitate and change trade patterns around the globe. China as the biggest trading nation in the world has a huge impact on international trade. The project includes investments in infrastructure and ongoing trade negotiations with China and its partners. Despite the fact that the major European economies like the UK, France, Italy or Germany are not officially part of the initiative the consequences for the EU and its member states can be significant. An improvement of infrastructure could boost trade relations towards the East and China. In the background that the TTIP partnership with the US faces certain difficulties economic ties could get closer with China and Asia. The goal of the thesis is to estimate trade potentials that arise from an improvement of infrastructure along the New Silk Road. Transportation costs are an important factor in international trade and hence a reduction could lead to increasing trade between the EU and China which already form one of the biggest trading blocs in the world. The topic is relevant from a European perspective as this could influence Sino-EU political and economic relations, opens up opportunities for growth in the EU due to infrastructure investments and could have positive effects on European exports to Asia and China. Working hypotheses: 1. H1: An improvement of infrastructure to China will lead to more EU exports to China 2. H2: Imports from China will grow less than exports to China 3. H3: The big EU economies will disproportionately benefit from the project 4. H4: The impact of infrastructure outweighs a possible FTA between the EU and China Methodology: I will apply the gravity model of international trade to estimate trade potential from a n improvement of infrastructure. I will use different data sources like comtrade, WITS, Eurostat to form a comprehensive data set that includes not only countries along the Silk Road and the EU. I will use the STATA software to compute different scenarios to estimate trade potentials. Besides the common variables that are standard in the gravity literature I will try to estimate the impact of transportation costs on trade. In a next step I will try to estimate what effect a reduction in transportation costs, ceteris paribus has on EU China trade volumes. Outline: 1. Introduction 2. What is OBOR? 3. EU-China trade in a nutshell 4. Literature Review 5. Gravity model issues 6. Data and Methodology 7. Conclusion 8. References 9. Appendices |