Does Aid Lead to More Trade? Evidence of the Effect of US Aid on its Exports
| Název práce v češtině: | Vede ekonomická pomoc k většímu obchodu? Evidence efektů pomoci USA na exporty |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | Does Aid Lead to More Trade? Evidence of the Effect of US Aid on its Exports |
| Klíčová slova: | Trade; Foreign aid; United States; Gravity model |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | Trade; Foreign aid; United States; Gravity model |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2015/2016 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | Mgr. Michal Paulus |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 15.06.2016 |
| Datum zadání: | 15.06.2016 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 08.02.2018 08:15 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Jinonice - U Kříže 8, J3093, Jinonice - místn. č. 3093 |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 02.01.2018 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 08.02.2018 |
| Oponenti: | Ing. Vilém Semerák, M.A., Ph.D. |
| Kontrola URKUND: | |
| Zásady pro vypracování |
| According to the FSV guidelines for master theses. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| Bacchetta, M., Beverelli, C., Cadot, O., Fugazza, M., Grether, J.-M., Helble, M., Piermartini, R. (2012). World Trade Organization. Retrieved May 20, 2017, from A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/practical_guide12_e.htm
Baldwin, R., & Taglioni, D. (2006). Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations. Nber Working Paper Series 12516, p. 31. Hühne, P., Meyer, B., & Nunnenkamp, P. (2015). Aid for Trade: Assessing the Effects on Recipient Exports of Manufactures and Primary Commodities to Donors and Non-Donors. In M. Arvin, & B. Lew, Handbook on the Economics of Foreign Aid (pp. 141-161). Massachusetts, USA: Edward Elgar Publishing. Johansson, L., & Pettersson, J. (2013). Aid, Aid for Trade, and bilateral trade: An empirical study . The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Vol. 22 (6), pp. 866-894. Lloyd, T., McGillivray, M., Morrissey, O., & Osei, R. (2000). Does aid create trade? An investigation for European donors and African recipients. The European Journal of Development Research, Vol. 12(1), pp. 107-123. Martinez-Zarzoso, I. (2015). The trade effects of foreign aid: an empirical perspective. In B. Lew, M. Arvin, & B. Lew (Eds.), Handbook on the Economics of Foreign Aid (pp. 179-196). Massachusetts, USA: Edward Elgar Publishing. Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Nowak-Lehmann, F., & Klasen, S. (2017, August). Aid and Its Impact on the Donor's Export Industry: The Dutch Case. The European Journal of Development Research, Vol. 29 (4), pp. 769-786. Nowak-Lehmann, F., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Klasen, S., & Herzer, D. (2009). Aid and Trade - A Donor's Perspective. The Journal of Development Studies, Vol 45 (7), pp. 1184-1202. Santos Silva, J., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The Log of Gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vo. 88(4), pp. 641-658. Wagner, D. (2003). Aid and trade - an empicial study. Journal of the Japanese International Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 153-173. |
| Předběžná náplň práce |
| Topic characteristics / Research Question(s):
The aim of this research is to deepen the existing empirical literature and scientific discussion on the effect of foreign aid on trade. Since the impact of aid highly depends on country pairs and timeframes, a case study of one specific donor is chosen and, thus, I expect to obtain comprehensive results. The chosen donor is the United States, which is the biggest donor worldwide in terms of volume, and has a long-reaching history in aid giving. The general research question is the following: how does US foreign aid affect the country’s exports? Further, through what channels does US aid work and do specific regions react differently to US aid? Several authors already focused on average effects of all donors as well as on case studies, but none looked specifically on the United States yet. I will estimate the effect of US aid on US exports with the gravity model of trade. The answering of the working hypotheses has important implications for development strategies or the interpretation of donor motivations. Working hypotheses: 1. US aid increases US exports to recipient countries 2. The increase of US exports to recipient countries is higher in the first two years of disbursement than in subsequent years due to the large proportion of tied aid in US total aid 3. US aid to lower income countries has a larger positive effect on US exports to these countries than US aid to higher income countries 4. US aid to regions with a lower US export share has a larger positive effect on US exports to these countries than aid to regions with a higher US export share Methodology: For the empirical research, the micro-founded gravity model of trade will be used with, among others, aid variables. The multilateral resistance terms are going to be approximated in order to secure for robustness and other gravity model specific issues by using the Dummy method of Baldwin & Taglioni (2006). The MRTs are going to be modeled with suitable dummies and estimated with the appropriate estimation technique (Fixed Effects, Random Effects, Pooled OLS) according to Park (2010). Further, the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator proposed by Santos Silva & Tenreyro (2006) is applied. Outline: 1. Introduction 2. The Link between Aid and Trade 3. The United States as Exporter and Donor 4. Gravity Model and Empirical Research Literature 5. Gravity Model Issues 6. Data and Methodology 7. Estimation Results 8. Discussion 9. Conclusion 10. Bibliography |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Topic characteristics / Research Question(s):
The aim of this research is to deepen the existing empirical literature and scientific discussion on the effect of foreign aid on trade. Since the impact of aid highly depends on country pairs and timeframes, a case study of one specific donor is chosen and, thus, I expect to obtain comprehensive results. The chosen donor is the United States, which is the biggest donor worldwide in terms of volume, and has a long-reaching history in aid giving. The general research question is the following: how does US foreign aid affect the country’s exports? Further, through what channels does US aid work and do specific regions react differently to US aid? Several authors already focused on average effects of all donors as well as on case studies, but none looked specifically on the United States yet. I will estimate the effect of US aid on US exports with the gravity model of trade. The answering of the working hypotheses has important implications for development strategies or the interpretation of donor motivations. Working hypotheses: 1. US aid increases US exports to recipient countries 2. US aid increases US exports to recipient countries more than other donors’ aid increases their exports to recipient countries 3. US aid to lower income countries has a larger positive effect on US exports to these countries than US aid to higher income countries 4. US aid to regions with a lower US export share has a larger positive effect on US exports to these countries than aid to regions with a higher US export share Methodology: For the empirical research, the micro-founded gravity model of trade will be used with, among others, aid variables. The multilateral resistance terms are going to be approximated in order to secure for robustness and other gravity model specific issues by using the Dummy method of Baldwin & Taglioni (2006). The MRTs are going to be modeled with suitable dummies and estimated with the appropriate estimation technique (Fixed Effects, Random Effects, Pooled OLS) according to Park (2010). Further, the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator proposed by Santos Silva & Tenreyro (2006) is applied. Outline: 1. Introduction 2. The Link between Aid and Trade 3. The United States as Exporter and Donor 4. Gravity Model and Empirical Research Literature 5. Gravity Model Issues 6. Data and Methodology 7. Estimation Results 8. Discussion 9. Conclusion 10. Bibliography |