Essays on Decision Making under Stress

• Název práce v češtině: Essays on Decision Making under Stress
• Název v anglickém jazyce: Essays on Decision Making under Stress
• Klíčová slova: behaviorální ekonomie, experimenty, stres, riziková averze, stádové chování
• Klíčová slova anglicky: behavioral economics, experiments, stress, risk-aversion, herding behavior
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2010/2011
• Typ práce: disertační práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
• Vedoucí / školitel: doc. PhDr. Michal Bauer, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno a potvrzeno stud. odd.
• Datum přihlášení: 11.11.2015
• Datum zadání: 11.11.2015
• Datum potvrzení stud. oddělením: 11.11.2015
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 22.06.2016 17:30
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 21.04.2016
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 22.06.2016
• Oponenti: Mgr. Michal Skořepa, Ph.D.

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Předběžná náplň práce

Tato práce se skládá ze tří tématicky propojených experimentálních studií lidského chování za nestandardních podmínek: pod časovou tísní a stresem. V úvodní části argumentuji, proč je pro ekonomy důležité, aby vzali na vědomí výzkum stresu v ekonomii, přičemž pro podporu svých argumentů uvádím několik příkladů ze současné literatury. První článek v kapitole 2 zkoumá vliv časové tísně na individuální náchylnost ke stádovému chování, zatímco zbývající dva články zkoumají účinek akutního stresu na rizikové preference, respektive na stádové chování. Stádové chování je velmi důležitý jev v lidském rozhodování, jelikož v našich každodenních životech jsou různé sociální vlivy velmi časté a nejinak je tomu při ekonomickém rozhodování: jako příklad uveďme obchodníky na finančních trzích, wait-and-see investory, ale také spotřební chování v důsledku módy, módních trendů či top-ten seznamů. Rizikové preference jsou dalším zásadním prvkem, který určuje mnoho důležitých hospodářských jevů, a předpoklad jejich stability je stavebním kamenem mnoha ekonomických teorií.

První článek zkoumá kauzální vliv časového tlaku na stádové chování. Za tímto účelem byl proveden laboratorní experiment, ve kterém každý proband řešil kognitivně jednoduchý úkol pod třemi úrovněmi časové tísně. Po prvním samostatném výkonu pak probandi dostali šanci podívat se na rozhodnutí druhých, a podle toho pak změnit jejich vlastní rozhodnutí, což bylo vzato jako ukazatel stádového chování. Hlavním zjištěním tohoto výzkumu je, že lidé relativně často mění své původní rozhodnutí, nicméně míra tohoto stádového chování se neliší mezi různými úrovněmi časové tísně. Na druhou stranu jiné proměnné implicitně spojené s časovým tlakem statisticky významně predikovaly stádové chování, jako například čas strávený na obrazovce zobrazující rozhodnutí druhých, subjektivní hladina stresu a zvýšení srdečního tepu v průběhu řešení úkolu. Skutečnost, že zvýšení tepové frekvence v průběhu řešení úkolu korelovala se subjektivním stresem, naznačuje, že časová tíseň může být použita jako mírný stresor. Bohužel se srdeční frekvence ukázala pro měření fyziologického stresu poměrně hrubým měřítkem, jelikož se může měnit i v důsledku jiných faktorů, jako například samotné úsilí vyvinuté při úloze nebo fyzický pohyb, a ne stresu. Kromě toho byla zjištěna zajímavá souvislost mezi zvýšením srdeční tepu a rizikovými preferencemi u mužů, což naznačuje existenci vztahu mezi fyziologickým stresem a vztahem k riziku.

Ve druhém článku představujeme navazující experiment, ve kterém bylo 151 probandů vystaveno laboratorní stres-vyvolávající nebo kontrolní proceduře "Trier Social Stress Test" pro skupiny s cílem nalézt kauzální vliv stresu na individuální postoje k riziku. Pro měření postojů k riziku bylo použito standardní externě ověřené experimentální metody. Použitím tří různých veličin zaprvé ukazujeme, že probandi ve intervenční skupině byli pod fyziologickým a psychickým stresem: jejich hodnoty srdečního tepu a kortizolu byly po proceduře výrazně zvýšené a zároveň se cítili hůř a více nervózní, a to v porovnání jak s výchozím stavem tak i s kontrolní skupinou. Naše hlavní zjištění je, že stres braný jako čisté vystavení stresoru (average treatment effect, ATT) tak i fyzilogocký stres (intention-to-treat effect, ITT) statisticky významně zvyšuje averzi k riziku u mužů, když kontrolujeme o jejich pozorovatelné charakteristiky. Velikost efektu odhadujeme na 69% (ATT) a 89% (ITT) velikosti rozdílu v postoji k riziku mezi muži a ženami v kontrolní skupině. U žen pozorujeme efekt ve stejném směru, ale je malý a zanedbatelný.

Třetí článek zkoumá, zda stres způsobuje rozdíly v individuálním stádovém chování. Pro vyvolání stresu používáme stejnou metodu jako v druhém článku, a to Trier Social Stress Test pro skupiny. Na vzorku 140 jedinců za použití stejných tři veličin (tepová frekvence, kortizol a psychologický dotazník na momentální náladu) ukazujeme, že probandi byli skutečně pod stresem. Stádové chování bylo měřeno pomocí úlohy na stanovování pravděpodobnosti jako kvantifikaci reakce na nové podněty, což nám umožnilo mít plnou kontrolu nad informační hodnotou v signálech poskytovanými probandům, přičemž signály pocházely buď ze soukromých nebo veřejných zdrojů. Hlavním výsledkem tohoto výzkumu je, že stádové chování jako relativní váha veřejných signálů v jednotlivém rozhodování se nemění pod stresem. Kromě toho, váha soukromých signálů a přesnost uvedených pravděpodobností se také neliší mezi intervenční a kontrolní skupinou, a to i po kontrole o osobnostní charakteristiky a psychologickou míru konformity. Na druhé straně pozorujeme v úloze chování srovnatelné s jinými studiemi, včetně shluků uvedených pravděpodobností na násobcích pěti a konzervativnosti při stanovování odhadu vyšších nebo nižších pravděpodobností.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

This dissertation comprises three thematically connected experimental studies of human behavior under non-standard conditions: time-pressure and stress. In the Introduction section I present the argument for why it is important for economists to recognize stress research as a valid part of the research in economics and how it can contribute to the growing knowledge of human behavior in general, including several examples from the literature. The first paper presented in Chapter 2 examines the effect of time pressure on the individual propensity to herd, while the remaining two papers examine the effect of acute stress on risk-preferences and herding behavior, respectively. Herding behavior is a very important phenomenon in human decision making since social influence is very frequent in our lives and economic decisions: consider traders in financial markets, wait-and-see investors, but also purchase behavior due to fads, fashion and top-ten lists. Risk preferences are another essential factor which determines many important economic outcomes, and the assumption of their stability is a building block of many economic theories.
The first article investigates the effect of time pressure on herding behavior. To do so, an experiment was run where subjects solved a cognitively simple task under three levels of time pressure in a within-subject design. After having performed first alone, they were then allowed to look at the decisions of others and according to that, change their own decision, which was taken as an indicator of herding behavior. The main finding is that people did frequently change their original decisions, but the rate of doing so was not different under the different levels of time pressure. Nevertheless, other variables implicitly associated with time pressure were significant as predictors of herding behavior, such as the time spent on the screen showing the decisions of others, reported subjective levels of stress and the increase in heart rate during the solution of the task. The fact that the increased heart-rate during the solution of the task correlated with the subjective levels of stress suggests time pressure can be used as a mild stressor. However heart rate is a rather crude measure of physiological stress as it can rise due to other factors, such as effort or simple movement, and not stress, and as a single measure of stress is not satisfactory. We also observe an interesting correlation between heart-rate increases and risk-preferences of men which suggests that there may be a relationship between physiological stress and risk-taking behavior.
In the second article we report on an experiment where we exposed 151 subjects to an efficient laboratory stress-inducing or a control procedure - the Trier Social Stress Test for Groups - in order to find the causal effect of stress on individual risk-attitudes. As a risk measure we used a standard externally validated multiple-price list method. Using three different measures, we first show that the subjects in the treatment-stressed group were both physiologically and psychologically stressed: their heart-rate and cortisol levels increased while they felt worse and more nervous compared to the baseline and to the control group. Our main result is that for men, the exposure to a stressor (intention-to-treat effect, ITT) and the exogenously induced psychosocial stress (the average treatment effect on the treated, ATT) significantly increase risk aversion when controlling for their personal characteristics. The estimated treatment difference in certainty equivalents is equivalent to 69% (ITT) and 89% (ATT) of the gender-difference in the control group. The effect on women goes in the same direction, but is weaker and insignificant.
The third article examines whether stress causes differences in individual herding behavior. To impose stress we employ the same methodology as in the second article, the Trier Social Stress Test for Groups, on a sample of 140 subjects and show using the same three measures as in the previous chapter (heart-rate, cortisol and mood questionnaire) that subjects were indeed stressed. Herding behavior was measured in a Bayesian updating task that allowed for full control over the information provided to subjects either from private or public sources. The main result is that herding behavior as a relative weight of public signals in individual decision making does not change under stress. Apart from that, the weight of private signals and the precision of the stated probabilities were also not different between the treatment and control groups, even after controlling for personality characteristics and the subjects' psychological measure of conformity. On the other hand, we observe updating behavior comparable with other studies, including clusters of stated probabilities on multiples of five and conservatism.