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Frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia: the case of the West Kazakhstan

Upozornění: Informace získané z popisných dat či souborů uložených v Repozitáři závěrečných prací nemohou být použity k výdělečným účelům nebo vydávány za studijní, vědeckou nebo jinou tvůrčí činnost jiné osoby než autora.
Title:
Frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia: the case of the West Kazakhstan
Title (in czech):
Příhraniční migrace mezi Kazachstánem a Ruskem: na příkladu západního Kazachstánu
Type:
Dissertation
Author:
Ainur Karzhaubayeva, Ph.D.
Supervisor:
doc. RNDr. Dušan Drbohlav, CSc.
Opponents:
RNDr. Květa Kalibová, CSc.
RNDr. Eva Janská, Ph.D.
Consultant:
doc. Milan Tuček, prom. mat., CSc.
Thesis Id:
112544
Faculty:
Faculty of Science (PřF)
Department:
Department of Demography and Geodemography (31-360)
Study programm:
Demography (P1303)
Study branch:
-
Degree granted:
Ph.D.
Defence date:
31/05/2013
Defence result:
Pass
Language:
English
Keywords (in czech):
фронтьерские миграций, казахстанско-российская граница, Западный Казахстан, Казахстан, Россия
Keywords:
Frontier migration, Kazakhstan-Russian border, West Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, Russia.
Abstract (in czech):
Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science Department of Demography and Geodemography Univerzita Karlova v Praze, Přírodovědecká fakulta Katedra demografie a geodemografie Summary of Ph.D. Thesis Autoreferát disertační práce Ph.D. study program in Demography Doktorský studijní program Demografie Frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia: the case of the West Kazakhstan Ainur Karzhaubayeva Supervisor/školitel: Doc. RNDr. Dušan Drbohlav, CSc. Supervisor-consultant/školitel-konzultant: Doc. Milan Tuček, CSc. Supervisor-consultant/školitel-konzultant: k.g.n. Zh.Zaionchkovskaya Prague ▪ Praha ▪ 2013 1 FRONTIER MIGRATION BETWEEN KAZAKHSTAN AND RUSSIA: THE CASE OF THE WEST KAZAKHSTAN Abstract The dissertation is dedicated to research frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia. The given issue is a topical and has an important value for forming of population policy of border regions and border collaboration of Kazakhstan and Russia. A conceptual interpretation of the border problems is attempted in the given work. A special chapter is dedicated for a forming history and peculiarities of Kazakhstan-Russian border. A practical part of the dissertation is based on social research materials called “Frontier migration in the western region of Kazakhstan- Russia border”, which was carried out by the author in July-August, 2009 in West- Kazakhstan and Orenburg regions with the assistance of an international program Center “Bolashak” of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Charles University in Prague. On the basis of sample survey data the nature, directions and motivation of frontier migration were analyzed; ethno-demographic situation in the frontier regions was considered. The carried out research allowed to reveal a number of problems associated with the frontier migrations in border regions of Kazakhstan and Russia. Keywords: Frontier migration, Kazakhstan-Russian border, West Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, Russia. 2 CONTENT 1. Introduction…… 4 Goal and objectives of the research……..… 6 The territorial scope of the research…….. 6 The chronological framework of the research……. 6 2. Data sources and methods…….…….... 7 Data sources.…….... 7 Research methods.…….... 7 Sample survey specification…….... 7 Generalized Linear Models……..… 8 3. Results and discussion…….…….….. 8 Features of the Kazakhstan-Russia border…….….. 8 An ethnic-demographic situation in frontier regions…….….. 9 Frontier migration on the western side of the Kazakhstan-Russia border……..…….. 10 Descriptive analysis of frontier migration. ……...…. 10 Generalized linear models of frontier migration. ……..… 13 Relevance of concepts and study results. …… 14 4. Conclusion...…….…….…. 16 5. Recommendations for how to treat the border zone and related frontier migration……. 17 6. References.…….……. 18 3 1. INTRODUCTION The collapse of the Soviet Union and the formation of new states led to dramatic changes in the geopolitical situation in the vast territory of the Eurasian continent. The disappearance of a harsh unified system has resulted in entirely new problems for the new states – defining of border regimes and infrastructure development in the boundary areas in accordance with international principles. The problem of regulating frontier migrations occupied an important place. And above all, this problem was raised between Kazakhstan and Russia, because the Kazakhstan-Russian border is the longest border in the former Soviet space and the second- longest in the world1. In the framework of a unified Soviet state frontier migrations did not cause problems and were not the subject of special research. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the establishment of border barriers made it impossible to maintain old relationships and connections. However, migration links between border areas of Kazakhstan and Russia continue in a fairly intense form, but the nature and methods of movements have changed significantly. Early 90's were characterized by large migration flows from Kazakhstan to Russia, which had a massive and irreversible character, whereas now cross-border movements are becoming increasingly important and took the form of seasonal and circular migration. Now we can say that the main migration flows from Kazakhstan to Russia have been exhausted; the frontier migration came to the foreground. They had occupied a significant place in the development of regions before, but now their causes and character has changed considerably. Now, the scope and conditions for their implementation are different. At the present stage, the migration policy has become part of the Kazakhstan-Russian bilateral relations. One of the results of their development is to establish more clearly defined restrictions on border crossings between Russia and Kazakhstan. With the advent of the Kazakhstan-Russian border, a number of measures had been introduced, making difficult communication between the populations of the border territories. The border control tightened repeatedly when entering and leaving the country. This policy has affected the huge mass of population, as the longest land border in the post-Soviet space had formed between Kazakhstan and Russia. The process of arrangement of the boundaries and legal settlement of border relations is quite natural and necessary, so the flow of cross-border movements became more controlled. However, some issues appeared that are negatively perceived by most people. This raises several questions, the scientific descriptions of which has a quite practical significance for the development of demographic and migration policy in both border regions and in the country in general. The necessity and urgency of the study is defined by a modern value of border territory as well. For Kazakhstan, the role of border regions is particularly great because Kazakhstan 1 Only the border between the U.S. and Canada is longer (8,891 km), but it includes 2,475 km of the Canadian border with Alaska. 4 borders with five countries of the CIS. For example, only the territory of border regions of Kazakhstan bordering with Russia occupy 46.7% of all territory of Kazakhstan (Kazakhstan v 2009 godu. Statisticheskii ezhegodnik Kazakhstana 2010: 9). In the administrative- territorial terms: 12 out of 14 regions of Kazakhstan and 79 of the 160 administrative districts are frontier territories. Undoubtedly, the border regions play a significant role in forming the demographic potential of Kazakhstan. About 73% of the population of Kazakhstan is concentrated in these border areas, of which 32% lives in the administrative districts that are directly adjacent to the borders, including 12% of the population lives in the regions bordering with Russia, 8% – with Uzbekistan, 6% – with Kyrgyzstan, 5.5% – with China, and 0.2% – with Turkmenistan. Specificity of business activities of border regions of Kazakhstan is that in most cases they are far away from the Kazakhstan market, but closer to the markets of neighboring countries. At the same time, the Soviet legacy contributes to the cross-border cooperation between Kazakhstan and the CIS countries in the form of the structures of economy, the mentality of the population, and so forth, but the border regions can use this positional resource to the full extent in case of good neighborly and stable relations with neighboring countries. Today, Kazakhstan has accumulated the vast experience in the study of demographic and migration issues, but demographic and migration problems of border regions still remain poorly studied. In this connection, a comprehensive analysis of demographic and migration situation with a view to finding a way for effective solutions to optimize the management of demographic processes in the border regions of Kazakhstan is becoming a particular relevance. Insufficient attention to the possible demographic impact in border regions and the lack of a strategy to address demographic and migration problems can lead to social and political instability. In this connection, a strategy of demographic and migration development of border areas becomes especially significant, which play the role of the outposts, the required level of international economic cooperation in preserving the integrity and national security. Relevance of the topic is defined by little knowledge about the problem. The researchers studied well enough common causes and nature of the migrations of the first half of 90-ies. They examined the extent and direction of migration flows, exit areas and resettlement of migrants, and developed the methodology of the study of migration processes. At the same time, the study of modern frontier migrations between Kazakhstan and Russia is only beginning. Therefore, the problem of frontier migration is the subject of this dissertation research. In addition, the study of this issue in regard to regions is necessary for both understanding this problem in the whole country and clarification its regional dimensions, as well as the need of complex research of frontier migration in order to develop practical recommendations. Thus, the relevance of research topic is due to the today’s objective realities, the need to develop the conceptual foundations of modern migration policy both in the border regions and in the country as a whole. 5 Goal and objectives of the research The purpose of this research is to examine the degree of development and the impact of frontier migration on the formation of relationships between the neighboring states and the population of borderlands. To achieve the goal of study, the following tasks were set: • Study the specifics of the Kazakhstan-Russia border and its western section and give a comprehensive description of the situation, including resources, communications, ethnic and demographic and other potentials of the borderlands; • Explore border formation history and evolution of the border policy; • Analyze the ethno-demographic situation in the border zone; • Study the situation of the Kazakh community living in Russia and the Russians in Kazakhstan; • Examine causes, intensity and geographical direction of frontier migration; • Determine the reasons for the increase / reduction in frontier migration; • Study migration potential, migration sentiments of the residents of border regions; • Study the impact of border control on the lives of borderlands population, on the intensity of contacts; • Try to determine intensity of frontier migration using Generalized linear models. The territorial scope of the research The territorial scope of the research covers the territory of West Kazakhstan. West Kazakhstan, due to its geographical position is the largest hub of migration processes, and by the degree of migration activity is one of the leading places in the country. The West Kazakhstan as none other region of Kazakhstan has the most extensive and diverse border with the regions of Russia. 12 subjects of the Russian Federation and 7 regions of Kazakhstan are adjoining the border. Three regions of Kazakhstan share a border with five provinces of Russia in the West Kazakhstan region. The research on this issue in the region has actual relevance for both understanding the problems of the whole country and clarifying its regional aspects. The chronological framework of the research The chronological framework of the research covers a long historical period from 1991 to 2011 – a twenty-year period of disintegration of the USSR, and the existence of CIS, and the new stage in the development of migration processes in post-Soviet space associated with this. This period is characterized by dramatic changes in migration of population between Kazakhstan and Russia: the massive and permanent emigration from Kazakhstan to Russia typical of the early 90's has slowed down, with frontier migration are becoming increasingly important year after year. Therefore, the timing of this research is determined by changes in the nature and extent of migration processes and their impact on ethnic and demographic situation in the border regions of Kazakhstan and Russia. 6 2. DATA AND RESEARCH METHODS Data sources This research of frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia is based on a wide range of sources. They represent both the primary documents to record migration, as well as generic information provided in the form of sample survey, reference and statistical publications. Departmental statistics is also important. In the study we used data from various sources, and although the data has significant limitations in terms of the coverage of migrants and migration flows, we have attempted to ensure its compatibility. Because the chronological framework of the study covers the period since the Soviet collapse and the formation of new independent states, such factors as time and place of writing, the nature of the sources were considered in the analysis of the materials and documents, i.e. the degree of reliability of data used, their comparability were determined. Research methods Sample survey specification. In order to study the problem of frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia, we conducted a survey called “Frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia: the case of the West Kazakhstan” in July-August, 2009. The purpose of the survey was to reveal characteristics, causes and directions of frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia, to analyze the degree of development and the impact of frontier migration on the formation of relationships between the neighboring states and the population of adjacent territories. Sample survey was conducted on both sides of the border, using “vis-à-vis” principle: in West Kazakhstan (Kazakhstan) and Orenburg regions (Russia). The choice of settlements was determined by the proximity to the border, as well as the location of border and customs posts near those places. The research program includes surveys of residents in following settlements: • Regional centers: Uralsk (Kazakhstan) and Orenburg (Russia) • District centers : Aksai (Kazakhstan) and Sol-Iletsk (Russia) • Settlements located close to the border: Chingirlau (Kazakhstan) and Linevka (Russia) The sample size was determined to ensure obtaining a representative calculation of key indicators of frontier migration for the country as a whole and for urban and rural areas. The 1,200 people were interviewed during the survey conducted (including 600 residents of the border region of Kazakhstan and 600 residents of border region of Russia). Out of these, 300 people (or 50% of respondents) were from the cities of Uralsk and Orenburg (region centers), 200 people (or 33% of respondents) – from the district centers Aksai and Iletsk and 100 people (17% of respondents) living in the villages Chingirlau and Linevka. The survey was conducted through a questionnaire, and questionnaires were filled out by the respondents. The questionnaire consisted of two parts, each of which covers important issues in accordance with the objectives of the study. The people of frontier regions of Kazakhstan who had visited Russia and people of frontier regions of Russia who had visited Kazakhstan were surveyed. Data processing is carried out by using professional statistical package SPSS. 7 Generalized Linear Models. Regression analysis is the research of ties regularity between the phenomena (processes) which depend on many, sometimes unknown, factors. The essence of the regression analysis comes to an establishment of a regression equation, i.e. of a type of a curve between the random varieties (arguments x and function y), to a valuation of a ties closeness between them, to an authenticity and adequacy of measurement results. The regression analysis is one of the methods of factors modeling of population migration. It obviously allows to check the hypothesis of migration dependence from factors, its determinants. However in social sciences we often deal with categorical variables not metric ones. Therefore in such cases we need another statistical model, such as Generalized linear models. So we use Generalized linear models in the given work. Generalized linear models refer to more difficult regression models. They are used in such cases when the diagnostics have shown a failure of simple regression models. Generalized linear model is a generalization of linear regression model which allows us: to include the categorical predictor variables along with the continuous ones. In the given work we pay more attention to the last case when the model includes the categorical predictor variables. The purpose of the chapter is to analyze the influence of some independent variables x1, x2, …, xn (age, sex, education, marital status, household income, nationality, citizenship, place of permanent residence and country of permanent residence) on the dependent variable y (intensity of frontier migration). Analysis of the problem is done using Generalized linear models, implemented with the help of an application program package SPSS. For analysis GLM of frontier was used the data of the sample survey. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Features of Kazakhstan-Russia borders The Kazakhstan-Russia border is one of the longest borders in the world, and separates two large countries in the post-Soviet region – Russia and Kazakhstan. The features of the Kazakhstan-Russia border (most of the landscape, infrastructure and demographic characteristics of the Kazakhstan-Russia borderlands) are conducive to intensive cross- border cooperation. First of all, the length of the Kazakhstan-Russia border is almost 7.5 thousand km (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan). The border zone between Kazakhstan and Russia is a densely populated strip which includes economically developed areas with a strong industrial base, a high level of urbanization, and a branched structure of communications. On the Russian side, 12 subjects of the Russian Federation and 70 administrative districts with more than 1,500 communities and over 3 million people are directly adjacent to the border. On the Kazakh side, the territory of Kazakh border regions bordering with Russia occupies 46.7% of all territory of Kazakhstan (Vardomsky and Golunov 2002: 456). Secondly, the majority of the border passes through the plains of the steppes (forest- steppe, semi-desert) region, and the level of population concentration and industrial 8 infrastructure in the border areas is quite large. However, the number of permanent cross- border communication paths that cross the border do not meet the needs of communication between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation at all sections. Thirdly, the border regions of Kazakhstan differ substantially in their resource, raw materials and communication potential. The majority of Kazakhstan’s natural resources are located in the western and northern regions bordering Russia. Cross-border cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia has a diverse character: in the security and regulatory regime of border crossing, production, trade, commercial, financial, transportation, humanitarian (social, educational, cultural), environmental and other fields. All these are conducive to intensive cross-border cooperation and to interaction between the populations of the Kazakhstan and Russia border regions. An ethnic-demographic situation in frontier regions A densely populated region on both sides of the border is an important feature of the Kazakhstan-Russia border area. According to 2009 estimates, there are about 27 million people living in the Russian regions adjacent to Kazakhstan, or 18.8% of the population of Russia (Russian Federal State Statistics Service). The population of the Kazakh regions adjacent to Russia is 5.5 million people, or 34.4% of the population of Kazakhstan (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan). The demographic potential in the border regions of Russia is nearly 5 times higher than in the border regions of Kazakhstan, and it has a tendency to increase in favor of the Russian border regions, whereas an imbalance between the population of Russia and Kazakhstan has a tendency to decrease because of total population decline in the Russian Federation and population increase in the Republic of Kazakhstan over the last ten years. In 1989–1999, migration flow from Kazakhstan helped stabilize the demographic situation in the Russian border regions, and compensate for a natural decline in population. In contrast, the population of border regions of Kazakhstan suffered heavy losses; during the 1989–1999 period, their population decreased by 815 thousand people, representing 65.5% of total population decline in Kazakhstan (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan). Slavic people from Kazakhstan moved largely to the neighboring Russian regions. As a result, ethno-demographic balance has shifted in favor of Kazakhs in almost all regions of the Kazakhstan part of the Kazakhstan-Russia border areas. Between 1989 and 2009, the size of the Russian population of Kazakhstan was reduced to 2.3 million and 1.0 million of those, or 44%, were the Russian population of border regions of Kazakhstan, adjacent to the Russian Federation. The outflow of the Slavic population from the border regions of Kazakhstan which still have a high proportion of Russians continues in an intensive manner, although outflow of the Russian population displays a decreasing tendency in comparison with the previous period. The greatest loss was suffered by the East Kazakhstan region and North Kazakhstan. However, 1.8 million Russian people live in seven regions of Kazakhstan bordering Russia, representing almost 48% of Kazakhstan's 9 Russian population, and the border regions of Kazakhstan are still the regions where the Russian population is concentrated (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan). Thus, this data indicates that the population of the border regions in the 1990s entered a period of downward demographic development. A sharp drop in population growth is a characteristic feature for the two countries – Russia and Kazakhstan in general. In Kazakhstan, the situation has changed due to mass emigration of the Slavic population from the country, whereas in the border areas of Russia, it was an influx of population from neighboring regions of Kazakhstan that has helped to straighten out the demographic situation, while maintaining and even increasing the total population. As a result, the ratio of population in the Russian and Kazakhstan borderlands has changed. The imbalance has increased in favor of Russia: in 1989– 4.12 times more people lived in the above-mentioned areas of Russia than in the border regions of Kazakhstan; by 1999 it was 4.78 times more, and in 2009 it was 4.84 times more (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan). Migration ties between the borderlands of Kazakhstan and Russia are continuing in quite an intense form, but the nature and methods of movements have changed significantly: the massive and irreversible migration from Kazakhstan to Russia, which was characteristic for the 1990s, has been exhausted. In support of the hypothesis of our study, it was determined that frontier migration plays an increasing role, which became the main form of migration processes in the Kazakhstan-Russia borderlands. Frontier migration far exceeds all other forms of migration in the border regions. The Kazakh diaspora in Russia and the Russian diaspora in Kazakhstan are the main basis for the existence and development of such migration networks. Frontier migration on the western side of the Kazakhstan-Russia border Descriptive analysis of frontier migration. As we noted before, for the purpose of specific analysis of frontier migration we carried out a sample survey of the population on both sides of the border according to “vis-à-vis” principle – in the Orenburg and West Kazakhstan region. The west section of the Kazakhstan-Russia border was deliberately chosen, as it is the largest junction of the migration process and in terms of migration activity, it holds top position in the Kazakhstan-Russian migration exchange. Based on our analysis of survey data, we can draw the following conclusions about frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia: • Despite its division by border and the strengthening of border controls at checkpoints, a single space in terms of social and economic relations is preserved. About half of the population of the borderlands continues to travel to a neighboring country to a greater or lesser extent, with 14% travelling at least several times a month. The most visited cities in the Russian Federation by the population of the West Kazakhstan region are located in the Orenburg, Samara and Saratov regions, because of the presence of relatives there, and for other travelling purposes (medical treatment, buying goods for the home, etc.). • A great source of integration between our two countries is the personal relationships between the borders communities established over decades. The most important factor in 10 frontier migration is the preservation of relationships between the residents of borderlands. Almost half of the respondents have cross-border relationships, with about 80% of them staying in touch with those relations on a regular basis. This is why many of the respondents pointed out during questioning that the delimitation of borders, strengthening of border and migration control hits people's ability to communicate freely with each other the hardest. This problem is noted as the most urgent for the residents of the borderlands. • The second largest group of reasons for trips to Russia for the residents of borderlands is the purchase of household goods, and traveling for medical treatment to Russian clinics. They often give opportunities related to obtaining employment or to the implementation of their commercial services as advantages of their place of residence. • An analysis of migration plans showed that most (77.3% of respondents) people do not intend to emigrate from the country. The majority of those wishing to move in the coming years are Russian, in most cases planning to move to Russia. Kazakhs and representatives of other nationalities often simply want to live in economically developed countries. Most people who plan to leave are of active working age (20-49 years), with higher education. • Migration plans clearly point to the "west", with no one planning to move to the countries of Central Asia. The leading motives for peoples’ departure are a desire to improve their economic situation, as well as to live near relatives. More than half of the respondents stated that their homeland and relatives and friends living near to them have prevented them from moving. • The survey showed that there is a certain tendency towards a reduction in trips of the residents of borderlands to the Russian Federation. Amongst those who have been there in the past three years, 40% of the respondents still go there, 37% go less and only 14% go more often. A decrease in trips is associated, on the one hand, with a lack of personal need for them, and on the other hand, with the complexities of crossing of the Kazakhstan- Russia border (queues at the border, customs and border controls). About 2% of respondents who have crossed the border in recent years did so at least once by passing through border and customs posts. • Frontier migrations between Kazakhstan and Russia have clearly become seasonal in nature. According to the survey, 80% of all visits were performed in the summertime. • The strengthening of customs inspections and overly strict border controls were named as amongst the major inconveniences in crossing the border. This was attributed to the distant location of border posts. Every third respondent had encountered some inconvenience on Russian territory due to the presence of domestic nationalism, and harassment on the grounds of nationality. • It was interesting to discover public attitudes to the border delimitation and the prospect of introducing a visa regime. Residents consider border delimitation, above all, as a positive process. This makes their lives more secure due to the establishment of strict rules and controls over those crossing the border. The most common negative aspects mentioned 11 were the complication of border crossings and reduced contact between the residents of borderlands. • Most respondents opposed the introduction of a visa regime as a measure of further tightening of border control (83.8% of West Kazakhstan region respondents and 81.0% of the respondents in the Orenburg region), while 6.3% and 6.7% respectively of the respondents supported this idea. The more regularly people go to Russia the higher the proportion of opponents of a visa regime amongst them. For each third respondent, the visa regime will be an insurmountable obstacle to travel, every tenth respondent will go less often, and only for each fifth respondent will nothing change. • Respondents primarily associated improving the lives of borderlands population with the border crossing regime, i.e., border crossings should be facilitated, minimizing controls at the border. • Two thirds of the respondents have a very friendly attitude towards Russia as their homeland, considering it a friendly country and a good neighbor, with the other respondents displaying a neutral attitude. This indicates approval of the integration policy of the countries. The main priorities in the development of interstate cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia, in their opinion, should be cooperation between the countries in the fields of education, culture and health. The respondents believe that the governments of Kazakhstan and Russia need common economic programs and projects. Development of relations between the neighboring countries at the state level is also important for the people of the borderlands. • Migration scales are influenced by a variety of socioeconomic, ethno-demographic and cultural factors, which have a different degree of development in different areas of the Kazakhstan-Russia border. The problem of identity is closely connected with many factors, although territorial, ethnic, and age-related factors have the most influence on frontier population identity. Self-identification is an identification of someone with a certain social group or community, accepting its objectives and value system, the perception of the person as a member of this group or community. So, the vast majority of all respondents – more than 80% of respondents of the West-Kazakhstan region - identify themselves as citizens of Kazakhstan. This is the situation in the frontier regions of the Russian Federation. This allows us to say that self-identification is an expression of loyalty to and trust in the state in which they are living. There is a sufficient differentiation between the basic ethnic and age groups for this item. Territorial identification works through the identification of a person as an individual as an inhabitant of a certain region and population center. At the same time, the Russians have a higher level of ethnic self- identification. Around 2.0% of respondents give a nostalgic identification, which is defined by such people identifying themselves as Soviet. A significant marker for a given form of identification is the respondent’s age, that is, basically, people of elder age born during the Soviet period. Ethno-psychological problems substantially influence self- identification. As our research has shown, a small group of Russians in Kazakhstan still 12 feel uncertainty. The Russian population in Kazakhstan represents the second and third generation of local Russians. “They clearly recognise their otherness from the Russians in Russia, having formed a special subculture”, uncomfortable both in Russia and in Kazakhstan. In all probability, the frontier region between Kazakhstan and Russia represents a sufficiently comfortable territory of residence for the above mentioned Russian population. It is no surprise that 2.5% of West-Kazakhstan region respondents consider themselves citizens of the Russian Federation, of whom a large proportion have Russian citizenship. Russian citizenship for this group of people serves as a kind of “security guarantee” or “in order not to feel isolated from Russia”. So, as the self- identification analysis of the population of the Kazakhstan-Russia border area has shown, the problem of identity is closely connected with many factors, though territorial, ethnic, and age-related factors have the most influence on frontier population identity. The survey can describe the extent of a serious problem – the presence of a group of people among the population of Kazakhstan with residence and apartment in Kazakhstan while being the citizens of another state, in this case Russia. For this group of people, it is quite obvious to have high migration mobility. This group is very significant for the border areas, since only territorial proximity increases the mobility of people and promotes the formation of such groups. Generalized linear models of frontier migration. On the basis of the sample survey data, we also studied relationships between the social characteristics of respondents and their intensity of frontier migration. We used a generalized linear model (GLM) to analyze the influence of the social characteristics of respondents on the intensity of frontier migration. Direct, apparent or mediated connections between the intensity of frontier migration and social characteristics were discovered, and the relative importance of each characteristic in different kinds of settlement (city, district and village) and country (Russia, Kazakhstan) were determined. • The generalized linear model results show four out of the nine examined independent variables exhibit a statistical significant effect on the intensity of frontier migration, essentially in all computed models – place of permanent residence, country of permanent residence, sex and age. In some models, marital status, nationality, citizenship and education of respondents have an influence on the intensity of the frontier migration. • Regardless of country and place of residence, men are more mobile than women. The main reason for women’s low mobility is that they (unlike men) are deeply involved in looking after the household (childbearing and raising of children, housekeeping etc.). The study also shows that the urban population is more mobile than the rural population. This may be explained by the employment of the rural population. The population in rural areas is mostly engaged in housekeeping, farming etc. • People older than 50 years are more mobile than people in younger age categories in all models. The mobility of people over 50 is somewhat high in comparison with young people. Here, the mobility displayed by those of an older age may be explained by several 13 reasons. First of all, the population aged 50+ is not such an old population; 50-60 year-old people are still at an active age and can work and travel. Secondly, they may have relatives and friends from the Soviet period further away. The population aged 50+ represent people who were born in the USSR and lived within one Soviet state. That is to say, people born in the USSR do not lose relations and friends just because they now live in different states. In contrast, young people are more focused on internal migration, that is, the younger the population is, the weaker the external relations. • So, the intensity of frontier migration basically depends on such indexes as place of permanent residence, country of permanent residence, age and sex. As such, household income does not play any part; this means that economic reasons are in some way suppressed. On the other hand, social and family relations are very important, in as much as the crossing of the border in order to visit relatives and friends is one of the principle reasons for migration. The given event may be explained, on the one hand, by the migration system theory (as discussed above), and on the other hand, by the network theory, that is, by the availability of interpersonal relations in which the migrants interact with their relatives and friends who had left for the other country. The reasons for such relations cover different types of support (information exchange, financial aid, etc.). Relevance of concepts and study results In addition, this dissertation attempts to consider the frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia through the prism of the global concepts of international migration. There are a lot of concepts regarding international migration; we have mentioned some of them. These concepts of international migration have given us the opportunity to analyze frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia, to explain trends and patterns of frontier migration. These concepts correspond to the reality of the Kazakhstan-Russia border and give us the opportunity to explain the reasons for frontier migration, migrants’ behaviors, and the impact of historical and political processes on the development of frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia. • So, based on the basic tenets of the theory of migration systems (Kritz, Lim and Zlotnik, 1992: 1-16), we can say that both Kazakhstan and Russian citizens living in the borderland area are quite closely related to each other in their daily lives. Contacts between inhabitants of frontier territories are predetermined by the existence of historic, cultural, economic or political bonds between countries. And according to a theory migration system, the probability of an international migration is especially great between former colonial states and their former colonies (which Russia and Kazakhstan were). The reason for this lies in administrative, transport, communication, investment, cultural, linguistic and other bonds which were established in the Soviet period. Here, an important role is played in particular by cultural and geographical proximity and the geopolitical position of these two states. The stability of migratory bonds is determined by migratory systems – kindred and other bonds of inhabitants of these states. And the main basis for 14 the existence and development of such migratory systems is Kazakh diaspora residents in Russia and Russian diaspora in Kazakhstan. • The concept of "internationalist" culture. As the peripheries of national states, border areas, due to their intermediate position, have themselves acted as "centers of development." These centers develop through social networks and cross-border economic relations (trade, exchange of information, cultural and educational exchanges, etc.). So, we can say that the Kazakhstan-Russia borderland is the "center of cooperation" between the two countries - Kazakhstan and Russia. Because of its periphery, these border regions are remote from the national markets, but because they are located at the border, they have access to the markets of the neighboring state. The concept of "internationalist" culture, which forms among the population of border regions, benefiting from cross-border contacts, was developed by American geographer, O. Martinez. It is based on years studying the border between the United States and Mexico (Martinez, O. 1994: 304). Here, a concept of “internationalist” culture is applicable which is formed amongst the inhabitants of frontier regions, turning frontier contacts to their advantage, in so far as a sufficient part of Kazakhstan and Russian migrants go into the neighboring country to solve personal issues – shopping, studying, for medical purposes, etc. So, in the borderlands between Russia and Kazakhstan, this culture is characterized by increased mobility and receptiveness to innovation. The study shows that the population of border regions is acutely aware of their special interests and is able to exist in several conflict- free "cultural worlds" – the nationwide culture and their ethnic culture, foreign cultures and the specific culture of the border region. • Self-identification. People’s identity is deeply modified in the new conditions because of the growing "mixture" of different ethnic and other groups. More and more people have complicated identities, associating themselves with two or more ethnic and cultural groups. There are growing cultural and linguistic, religious and other identities that are not always clearly related to a specific territory. This leads to a relative weakening of national identity, as people tend to identify themselves with their specific place of residence – the municipality, region, or being part of a separate nationality or social group, in order to isolate themselves from "outsiders" (people of other nationalities, faiths, etc.) by strict administrative barriers. The study has shown that the number of such people is small in the Kazakhstan-Russia borderlands, but it is not insignificant (although it displays a decreasing tendency compared with previous studies). The vast majority of respondents of the West-Kazakhstan region identify themselves as citizens of Kazakhstan. Thus we can say that self-identification is an expression of loyalty and trust to the state in which they are living. • The concept of transnational migration. In the given case, if we follow the concept of German researcher L.Pries (Pries 1996: 456-472), the respondents who associate themselves as a “citizen of Russia” are trans-migrants, who are living in “sending” (Russia) and “accepting” (Kazakhstan) communities and forming a trans-national 15 community simultaneously. As research shows, often trans-migrants do not focus on integration, and this is confirmed by our researchers as well. The trans-migrants crossing international borders and staying in another country keep up social relations with their native country. • In the ordinary state of consciousness, the feeling of an external threat gives rise to a desire to minimize or even to cease contact with an unwanted or dangerous neighbor: if it is not possible to get rid of him, if it is impossible to subdue, control, or resettle him elsewhere, then it is necessary to isolate oneself from this neighbor. Entire countries have applied this strategy by erecting "great walls" – in China, England (separating England from Scotland), Berlin, and today in the Middle East with the Israeli government wanting to protect Israelis from Palestinians through the construction of a great wall (Kolossov 2003: 44-59). A survey conducted in the West Kazakhstan and Orenburg regions showed that the population of border areas see the introduction of a visa regime between Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries and between Russia and Kazakhstan as a solution to the problems of drug trafficking and illegal migration from Central Asia, which corresponds to roughly the same idea: to protect "us" from "them". However, experience has shown that border walls only aggravate these problems. Isolation creates ignorance; ignorance creates fear and mistrust, and such a perception of a neighbor is the most powerful obstacle to reconciliation and finding a real solution. 4. CONCLUSION • The research suggests that the border has not become a barrier constraining the development of trans-boundary contacts, even though the Russian side has been strengthening border controls year on year, citing the need to ensure security. • Border barriers between the two neighboring states, whose inhabitants have always had family and economic relations and who continue to maintain these relations, have seriously complicated the lives of people both in Kazakhstan and in Russia. The newly imposed barriers have worsened and complicated the already difficult course of socioeconomic transformations for people in the two countries, intensifying their economic isolation and periphery. • At the same time, as the survey shows, as long as a relative openness is maintained, the border territory may provide some benefits to residents, who are in favor of interstate integration and are able to make a profit from cross-border contacts for themselves and their families. In the long run, this may give additional incentives to the development of the territories on both sides of the border. • Solving the population problems and regulation of migration processes in the border territories can be most effectively addressed at the local level by the administrations in border areas. Their policies and concrete acts to strengthen the relationship between neighboring countries, creating favorable conditions for economic, social and cultural cooperation will result in real improvements in the lives of their people, and preserve the benefits of open borders between friendly countries. 16 5. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR HOW TO TREAT THE BORDER ZONE AND RELATED FRONTIER MIGRATION Transforming the boundaries of the former Soviet Union, the border regions, and the opportunities and challenges of cross-border cooperation require a deliberate policy aimed at resolving the situation in the Kazakhstan-Russia borderlands with the adoption of specific measures: • In our view, the Kazakhstan-Russia borderlands have rich resources, manufacturing and human capacity, the efficient management of which able to give a significant boost to the development of Kazakhstan-Russian relations. For many regions, especially the border regions and areas directly adjacent to the border, cross-border cooperation is one of the few opportunities to overcome a peripheral position within their country, improve living standards and meet the cultural and other needs of the population. In addition, in our opinion, frontier migration can stimulate the economic development of depressed border areas and cross-border cooperation of neighboring states. • Frontier migration, its regulation and organization, and procedures of implementation should be part of the state migration policy. In our view, it is necessary to develop a simplified border-crossing regime for the residents of border areas. In the future, with the growth of economic relations between Kazakhstan and Russia, the role and importance of frontier migration will increase, and it will become a common form of communication and relationships, with not only economic advantages and enormous spiritual and human potential, but also carrying a significant potential of integration processes. • The nature and extent of frontier migration is greatly influenced by the degree of arrangement of the border. Delimitation and sufficient checkpoints will streamline the process and create normal conditions for the residents of border regions. The introduction of quotas and restrictions will affect the vital interests of large groups. Strengthening border controls and access controls will lead to irrecoverable migration from Kazakhstan (lead to increase of emigration from Kazakhstan). In this regard, there is some point in developing cooperation with neighboring countries, primarily with Russia, which accounts for about 80% of the migration exchange, to allow free migration, including frontier migration. • The resource of frontier migration between neighboring countries can be particularly effectively used in the development of interaction between the large neighboring settlements of Russia and Kazakhstan. Such cities can become "engines" of cooperation of border areas, especially in trade and economic relations. • The problem of crossing the Russian border should be viewed not only in terms of security of the state, but also from the standpoint of the interests of the migrants themselves, who are experiencing some discomfort when passing the border control. • Some efforts to facilitate cross-border communication between settlements adjacent to the border are undertaken, as reflected, for example, in the opening of simplified border checkpoints for residents of border areas between Russia and Kazakhstan. However, these efforts are still insufficient, because they can engage only a relatively small proportion of the population of neighboring regions whose centers are located far enough from the border in cross-border cooperation. 17 REFERENCES Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Results of National cense of 1999. http://www.stat.kz/per_nas_1999/Pages/default.aspx Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Results of National cense of 2009. http://www.stat.kz/p_perepis/Pages/default.aspx Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. (2009). Kazakhstan in 2009. Statistical Yearbook. Astana. Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. (2009). Kazakhstan regions in 2007. Statistical collection. Astana. Agency on Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. (2000). Kratkie itogi perepisi naseleniya 1999 goda v Respublike Kazakhstan. Almaty. Department of Statistic of the West Kazakhstan oblast. (2009).West Kazakhstan in 2008. Demographic Yearbook. Uralsk. Federal State statistic Service. (2010). The Demographic Yearbook of Russia.2010. Statistical handbook. Moscow. Golunov, S. (2002). Etnokul’turnoe izmerenie migracionnykh processov v zapadnoi chasti rossiisko-kazakhstanskogo prigranich’ya. In: Zaionchkovskaya, Zh. and Sdykov, M. (eds.). Rossiya–Kazakhstan: frontierskie migracii. Moskva–Uralsk: 89–107. Karzhaubayeva, A. (2002). Staroe i novoe v migracionnykh processakh mezhdu Zapadnym Kazakhstanom i Rossiei. In: Zaionchkovskaya, Zh. and Sdykov, M. Rossiya– Kazakhstan: frontierskie migracii. Moskva–Uralsk: 108–121. Kolossov, V. (2003). Teoreticheskaya limologiya: novye podkhody. Mezhdunarodnye processy. 3(б): 44–59. Kritz, M., Lim, L.L. and Zlotnik, H. (1992). International migration systems: a global approach Oxford: Clarendon Press. Martinez, O. (1994). Border People: Life and Society in U.S.–Mexico Borderlands. Tucson: University of Arizona Press. Pries L. (1996). Transnationale Soziale Raume. Theoretisch-empirische Skiize am Beispiel Mexiko-USA// Zeitschrift fur Sociologie. Vol.25 (6). Dec. P.456-472. Russian Federal State Statistics Service. http://www.gks.ru/dbscripts/Cbsd/DBInet.cgi? http://www.gks.ru/dbscripts/Cbsd/DBInet.cgi?pl=2403012 Vardomsky, L. and Golunov, S. (2002). Prozrachnye granicy. Bezopasnost i transgranichnoe sotrudnichestvo v zone novykh pogranichnykh territorii Rossii. Moskva–Volgograd. 18 CURRICULUM VITAE Ainur KARZHAUBAYEVA Address: Uralsk, 090000, West Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan E-mail: ainur.karzhaubayeva@gmail.com EDUCATION: 2007-pres. processing towards Ph.D. degree in Demography; Department of Demography, Faculty of Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic 1998-2001 Ph.D. degree in Native History (History of the Republic of Kazakhstan); Department of History of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Faculty of History, West Kazakhstan State University, Uralsk, Kazakhstan 1994-1998 BA degree in History Science, West Kazakhstan Humanitarian University named after A.S.Pushkin, Uralsk, Kazakhstan PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: Kazakhstan 2001-2007 West-Kazakhstan State University after M.Utemisov, Uralsk, Kazakhstan 2006-2007 Head of the Department of History of the Republic of Kazakhstan 2004-2005 Dean of Faculty of History 2003-2004 Head of the Department of the World History 2001-2003 Lecturer, Associate professor 1994-1998 Belogorka Secondary school, West Kazakhstan oblast, Music teacher Russia 2004-2006 Volgograd State University, Russia, Lecturer SCHOLARSHIPS: Kazakhstan State grant for the talented and young scientists. Ministry of Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana, 2004 Grant of the Centre for International Programs “Bolashak”. Ministry of Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana, 2007 19 RESEARCH GRANTS: Rosiya – Kazakhstan: frontierskie migracii. Project of Institute of Forecast of National Economic of Russian Academic of Science. Moscow, 2001 Prigranichnye migracii v Kazakhstane: sostoyanie, problemy i perspektivy. Grant of Soros foundation in Kazakhstan and International Organization of Migration in Kazakhstan. Almaty, Astana, 2003 Realii i prognozy demograficheskogo razvitiza Evraziiskogo prostranstva. Grant of Soros foundation in Kazakhstan and International Organization of Migration in Kazakhstan. Almaty, Astana, 2004 SUMMER SCHOOLS: International Summer School: Demography: theory and methods of research. Almaty, 1999, 2000 International Summer School: Actual issues of instruction of demography in the system of higher education. Ust-Kamenogorsk, 2001 International Summer School: Migration: theory, methods, practice of regulation of migratory processes. Smolensk – Moscow, 2003, 2004, 2005 International school: Use of strategy of active training in teaching of special courses, Center of migratory researches (Russia) – HESP OSI (Hungary). Moscow, 2004 CONFERENCES (take part in 40 conferences): 3rd Demographic Conference of Ph.D. students. Actual Demographic Research of Young Demographers (not only) in Europe. 17-18 February, 2011, Prague, Czech Republic 2nd Demographic Conference of Ph.D. students. Actual Demographic Research of Young Demographers (not only) in Europe. 17 February, 2011, Prague, Czech Republic The 6th D.Valentey Commemorative Readings. International Population Conference, April 22-24, 2010, Moscow, Russia 5th International Anthropological Congress of Ales Hrdlicka “Quo vadis homo …societas humana?” 2–5 September, 2009, Prague, Czech Republic. Partnership of the CIS countries in the field of migration: search of the coordinated decisions, 24-25 September, 2009, Moscow, Russia. Workshop-training “Introduction of training programs in demography at Kazakhstan Universities” Demographers Association of Kazakhstan, United Nations Development Program Kazakhstan, UNFPA, June, 2007, Karkaraly–Karagandy, Kazakhstan. 20 SELECTED PUBLICATIONS: Published more than 40 publications on demographic and migratory problems: 1. Karzhaubayeva, A. 1999. Kazakhskoe naselenie Ural’skoi oblasti v konce XIX veka. Etnodemographicheskie processy v Kazakhstane i sopredel’nykh territoriyakh. Materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferencii. Ust’-Kamenogorsk. P.47-49. 2. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2000. Migracionnye processy v Kazakhstane v gody Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny (1941-1945 gg.). Poisk. Seriya gumanitarnykh nauk. pp.151- 156. 3. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2000. Migracioonye processy v Kazakhstane v 1990-e gody. Molodye uchenye odemographicheskikh problemakh v Kazakhstane. Sbornik nauchnykh statei. – Almaty: Raritet. P.72-85. 4. Karzhaubayeva, A.I. 2001. Migracionnye processy kak factor izmeneniya etnicheskoi struktury naseleniya Zapadnogo Kazakhstan (konec XIX – XX vv.). Rossiya, Sibir’ I Central’naya Aziya: vzaimodeistvie narodov i kul’tur. – Barnaul. P.154-160. 5. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2001. Vneshnyaya migraciya kazakhov Zapadnogo Kazakhstana v 1990-e gody: prichiny i napravleniya. Etnodemographicheski processy v Kazakhstane i sopredel’nykh territoriyakh. Materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferencii – Ust’-Kamenogorsk. P.122-125. 6. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Uchebnaya programma po kursu “Osnovy demography”. Sbornik al’ternativnykh program po demography. – Almaty. P. 67-71. 7. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Uchebnaya programma po kursu “Otechestvenaya demographiya”. Sbornik al’ternativnykh program po demography. – Almaty. P.71-74. 8. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Osnovnye factory i tendencii prigranichnoi migracii mezhdu Zapadnym Kazakhstanom i Rossiei. Migraciya i opyt vzaimodeistviya regionov po usileniyu ethnopoliticheskoi stabil’nosti v Evrazii. – Novosibirsk. P.65-69. 9. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Migracionnye processy v Zapadnom Kazakhstane v 1950-e gody. Etnodemographicheskie processy v Kazakhstane i sopredel’nykh territoriyakh. Materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferencii – Ust’-Kamenogorsk. P.52-54. 10. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Staroe i novoe v migracionnykh processakh mezhdu Zapadnym Kazakhstanom i Rossiei. Rossiya – Kazakhstan: frontierskie migracii. Sbornik nauchnykh trudov. – Moskva – Uralsk. P.108-122. 11. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Frontierskie migracii mezhdu Zapadnym Kazakhstanom i Rossiei. Migracioonaya situaciya v Rossii. Materiyaly II Mezhdunarodnoi molodezhnoi konferencii. Nizhnii Novgorod – Moskva. P.20-28. 12. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Osnovnye tendencii vneshnei migracii i dinamika chislennosti kazakhskogo naseleniya Zapadnogo Kazakhstana v 1989-1999 gg. Vestnik Zapadno-Kazakhstanskogo universiteta. N3. P.81-89. 21 13. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2003. Vliyanie gosudarstvennoi migracionnoi politiki na ethnodemographicheskoe razvitie naseleniya zapadnogo Kazakhstana v 1930 – 1940-e gody. Vestnik KazNU. Seriya istoricheskaya. N1. P.35-37. 14. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2003. Istochniki informacii o migracii naseleniya v Kazakhstane. Vestnik KazNU. Seriya istoricheskaya. N1. P.87-90. 15. Karzhaubayeva, A. Rol’ migracionnykh processov v formirovanii sovremenogo naseleniya Zapadnogo Kazakhstana. Dissertaciya na soiskanie uchennoi stepeni kandidata istoricheskikh nauk. Uralsk, 2003. P. 137. 16. Karzhaubayeva, A. Rol’ migracionnykh processov v formirovanii sovremenogo naseleniya Zapadnogo Kazakhstana. Avforeferat dissertacii na soiskanie uchennoi stepeni kandidata istoricheskikh nauk. Uralsk, 2003. P. 137. 17. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2003. Osnovnye tendencii migracionnykh processov v 1950-e gody v Zapadnom Kazakhstane. Aktual’nye problemy social’no-politicheskoi transformacii obshestva. Sbornik nauchnykh trudov. – Almaty. P.87-92. 18. Karzhaubayeva, A. Prigranicnaya migraciya mezhdu Kazakhstanom I Rossiei (na primere Zapadno-Kazakhstanskoi oblasti). “Starye” i ”novyegranicy” Evrazii I Severnoi Ameriki. Problemy bezopasnosti i sotrudnichestva Vypusk 1. Volgograd, 2004. S.135-144. 19. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2005. Istochniki informacii o migracii naseleniya v Kazakhstane. Realii i prognozy demographiskogo razvitiya Evraziiskogo prostranstva. Materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferencii, 15-16 maya 2004. /Pod redakciei T.Kuchera i A.Karzhaubayevoi. – Almaty: Raritet. P.130-138 20. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2010. Etnodemographicheskie processy v Zapadnom Kazakhstane v XIX-XXI vekakh. Problemy narodonaseleniya v zerkale istorii. Shestye Valenteevskie chteniya. Sbornik materialov mezhdunarodnoi konferencii 22-24 aprelya 2010. – Moskva. P.230-241. 21. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2010. Ethnodemographic process in the Western Kazakhstanin the XIX-XXI centuries. Etnodemographicheskie processy v Kazakhstane i sopredel’nykh territoriyakh. Sbornik nauchnykh trudov Mezhdunarodnoi konferencii 28-29 maya 2010. – Ust’-Kamenogorsk: Librius. P.229-239. 22. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2010. Border region migration between Kazakhstan and Russia: in a case of the West Kazakhstan. Actual demographic research of young demographers (not only) in Europe. 2nd Demographic Conference of “Young Demographers”. Prague. P.19. 23. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2011. Features of frontier migration in the western site of Kazakhstan-Russia border. Poster. Actual demographic research of young demographers (not only) in Europe. 2nd Demographic Conference of “Young Demographers”. Prague. 22
Abstract:
Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science Department of Demography and Geodemography Univerzita Karlova v Praze, Přírodovědecká fakulta Katedra demografie a geodemografie Summary of Ph.D. Thesis Autoreferát disertační práce Ph.D. study program in Demography Doktorský studijní program Demografie Frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia: the case of the West Kazakhstan Ainur Karzhaubayeva Supervisor/školitel: Doc. RNDr. Dušan Drbohlav, CSc. Supervisor-consultant/školitel-konzultant: Doc. Milan Tuček, CSc. Supervisor-consultant/školitel-konzultant: k.g.n. Zh.Zaionchkovskaya Prague ▪ Praha ▪ 2013 1 FRONTIER MIGRATION BETWEEN KAZAKHSTAN AND RUSSIA: THE CASE OF THE WEST KAZAKHSTAN Abstract The dissertation is dedicated to research frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia. The given issue is a topical and has an important value for forming of population policy of border regions and border collaboration of Kazakhstan and Russia. A conceptual interpretation of the border problems is attempted in the given work. A special chapter is dedicated for a forming history and peculiarities of Kazakhstan-Russian border. A practical part of the dissertation is based on social research materials called “Frontier migration in the western region of Kazakhstan- Russia border”, which was carried out by the author in July-August, 2009 in West- Kazakhstan and Orenburg regions with the assistance of an international program Center “Bolashak” of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Charles University in Prague. On the basis of sample survey data the nature, directions and motivation of frontier migration were analyzed; ethno-demographic situation in the frontier regions was considered. The carried out research allowed to reveal a number of problems associated with the frontier migrations in border regions of Kazakhstan and Russia. Keywords: Frontier migration, Kazakhstan-Russian border, West Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, Russia. 2 CONTENT 1. Introduction…… 4 Goal and objectives of the research……..… 6 The territorial scope of the research…….. 6 The chronological framework of the research……. 6 2. Data sources and methods…….…….... 7 Data sources.…….... 7 Research methods.…….... 7 Sample survey specification…….... 7 Generalized Linear Models……..… 8 3. Results and discussion…….…….….. 8 Features of the Kazakhstan-Russia border…….….. 8 An ethnic-demographic situation in frontier regions…….….. 9 Frontier migration on the western side of the Kazakhstan-Russia border……..…….. 10 Descriptive analysis of frontier migration. ……...…. 10 Generalized linear models of frontier migration. ……..… 13 Relevance of concepts and study results. …… 14 4. Conclusion...…….…….…. 16 5. Recommendations for how to treat the border zone and related frontier migration……. 17 6. References.…….……. 18 3 1. INTRODUCTION The collapse of the Soviet Union and the formation of new states led to dramatic changes in the geopolitical situation in the vast territory of the Eurasian continent. The disappearance of a harsh unified system has resulted in entirely new problems for the new states – defining of border regimes and infrastructure development in the boundary areas in accordance with international principles. The problem of regulating frontier migrations occupied an important place. And above all, this problem was raised between Kazakhstan and Russia, because the Kazakhstan-Russian border is the longest border in the former Soviet space and the second- longest in the world1. In the framework of a unified Soviet state frontier migrations did not cause problems and were not the subject of special research. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the establishment of border barriers made it impossible to maintain old relationships and connections. However, migration links between border areas of Kazakhstan and Russia continue in a fairly intense form, but the nature and methods of movements have changed significantly. Early 90's were characterized by large migration flows from Kazakhstan to Russia, which had a massive and irreversible character, whereas now cross-border movements are becoming increasingly important and took the form of seasonal and circular migration. Now we can say that the main migration flows from Kazakhstan to Russia have been exhausted; the frontier migration came to the foreground. They had occupied a significant place in the development of regions before, but now their causes and character has changed considerably. Now, the scope and conditions for their implementation are different. At the present stage, the migration policy has become part of the Kazakhstan-Russian bilateral relations. One of the results of their development is to establish more clearly defined restrictions on border crossings between Russia and Kazakhstan. With the advent of the Kazakhstan-Russian border, a number of measures had been introduced, making difficult communication between the populations of the border territories. The border control tightened repeatedly when entering and leaving the country. This policy has affected the huge mass of population, as the longest land border in the post-Soviet space had formed between Kazakhstan and Russia. The process of arrangement of the boundaries and legal settlement of border relations is quite natural and necessary, so the flow of cross-border movements became more controlled. However, some issues appeared that are negatively perceived by most people. This raises several questions, the scientific descriptions of which has a quite practical significance for the development of demographic and migration policy in both border regions and in the country in general. The necessity and urgency of the study is defined by a modern value of border territory as well. For Kazakhstan, the role of border regions is particularly great because Kazakhstan 1 Only the border between the U.S. and Canada is longer (8,891 km), but it includes 2,475 km of the Canadian border with Alaska. 4 borders with five countries of the CIS. For example, only the territory of border regions of Kazakhstan bordering with Russia occupy 46.7% of all territory of Kazakhstan (Kazakhstan v 2009 godu. Statisticheskii ezhegodnik Kazakhstana 2010: 9). In the administrative- territorial terms: 12 out of 14 regions of Kazakhstan and 79 of the 160 administrative districts are frontier territories. Undoubtedly, the border regions play a significant role in forming the demographic potential of Kazakhstan. About 73% of the population of Kazakhstan is concentrated in these border areas, of which 32% lives in the administrative districts that are directly adjacent to the borders, including 12% of the population lives in the regions bordering with Russia, 8% – with Uzbekistan, 6% – with Kyrgyzstan, 5.5% – with China, and 0.2% – with Turkmenistan. Specificity of business activities of border regions of Kazakhstan is that in most cases they are far away from the Kazakhstan market, but closer to the markets of neighboring countries. At the same time, the Soviet legacy contributes to the cross-border cooperation between Kazakhstan and the CIS countries in the form of the structures of economy, the mentality of the population, and so forth, but the border regions can use this positional resource to the full extent in case of good neighborly and stable relations with neighboring countries. Today, Kazakhstan has accumulated the vast experience in the study of demographic and migration issues, but demographic and migration problems of border regions still remain poorly studied. In this connection, a comprehensive analysis of demographic and migration situation with a view to finding a way for effective solutions to optimize the management of demographic processes in the border regions of Kazakhstan is becoming a particular relevance. Insufficient attention to the possible demographic impact in border regions and the lack of a strategy to address demographic and migration problems can lead to social and political instability. In this connection, a strategy of demographic and migration development of border areas becomes especially significant, which play the role of the outposts, the required level of international economic cooperation in preserving the integrity and national security. Relevance of the topic is defined by little knowledge about the problem. The researchers studied well enough common causes and nature of the migrations of the first half of 90-ies. They examined the extent and direction of migration flows, exit areas and resettlement of migrants, and developed the methodology of the study of migration processes. At the same time, the study of modern frontier migrations between Kazakhstan and Russia is only beginning. Therefore, the problem of frontier migration is the subject of this dissertation research. In addition, the study of this issue in regard to regions is necessary for both understanding this problem in the whole country and clarification its regional dimensions, as well as the need of complex research of frontier migration in order to develop practical recommendations. Thus, the relevance of research topic is due to the today’s objective realities, the need to develop the conceptual foundations of modern migration policy both in the border regions and in the country as a whole. 5 Goal and objectives of the research The purpose of this research is to examine the degree of development and the impact of frontier migration on the formation of relationships between the neighboring states and the population of borderlands. To achieve the goal of study, the following tasks were set: • Study the specifics of the Kazakhstan-Russia border and its western section and give a comprehensive description of the situation, including resources, communications, ethnic and demographic and other potentials of the borderlands; • Explore border formation history and evolution of the border policy; • Analyze the ethno-demographic situation in the border zone; • Study the situation of the Kazakh community living in Russia and the Russians in Kazakhstan; • Examine causes, intensity and geographical direction of frontier migration; • Determine the reasons for the increase / reduction in frontier migration; • Study migration potential, migration sentiments of the residents of border regions; • Study the impact of border control on the lives of borderlands population, on the intensity of contacts; • Try to determine intensity of frontier migration using Generalized linear models. The territorial scope of the research The territorial scope of the research covers the territory of West Kazakhstan. West Kazakhstan, due to its geographical position is the largest hub of migration processes, and by the degree of migration activity is one of the leading places in the country. The West Kazakhstan as none other region of Kazakhstan has the most extensive and diverse border with the regions of Russia. 12 subjects of the Russian Federation and 7 regions of Kazakhstan are adjoining the border. Three regions of Kazakhstan share a border with five provinces of Russia in the West Kazakhstan region. The research on this issue in the region has actual relevance for both understanding the problems of the whole country and clarifying its regional aspects. The chronological framework of the research The chronological framework of the research covers a long historical period from 1991 to 2011 – a twenty-year period of disintegration of the USSR, and the existence of CIS, and the new stage in the development of migration processes in post-Soviet space associated with this. This period is characterized by dramatic changes in migration of population between Kazakhstan and Russia: the massive and permanent emigration from Kazakhstan to Russia typical of the early 90's has slowed down, with frontier migration are becoming increasingly important year after year. Therefore, the timing of this research is determined by changes in the nature and extent of migration processes and their impact on ethnic and demographic situation in the border regions of Kazakhstan and Russia. 6 2. DATA AND RESEARCH METHODS Data sources This research of frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia is based on a wide range of sources. They represent both the primary documents to record migration, as well as generic information provided in the form of sample survey, reference and statistical publications. Departmental statistics is also important. In the study we used data from various sources, and although the data has significant limitations in terms of the coverage of migrants and migration flows, we have attempted to ensure its compatibility. Because the chronological framework of the study covers the period since the Soviet collapse and the formation of new independent states, such factors as time and place of writing, the nature of the sources were considered in the analysis of the materials and documents, i.e. the degree of reliability of data used, their comparability were determined. Research methods Sample survey specification. In order to study the problem of frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia, we conducted a survey called “Frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia: the case of the West Kazakhstan” in July-August, 2009. The purpose of the survey was to reveal characteristics, causes and directions of frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia, to analyze the degree of development and the impact of frontier migration on the formation of relationships between the neighboring states and the population of adjacent territories. Sample survey was conducted on both sides of the border, using “vis-à-vis” principle: in West Kazakhstan (Kazakhstan) and Orenburg regions (Russia). The choice of settlements was determined by the proximity to the border, as well as the location of border and customs posts near those places. The research program includes surveys of residents in following settlements: • Regional centers: Uralsk (Kazakhstan) and Orenburg (Russia) • District centers : Aksai (Kazakhstan) and Sol-Iletsk (Russia) • Settlements located close to the border: Chingirlau (Kazakhstan) and Linevka (Russia) The sample size was determined to ensure obtaining a representative calculation of key indicators of frontier migration for the country as a whole and for urban and rural areas. The 1,200 people were interviewed during the survey conducted (including 600 residents of the border region of Kazakhstan and 600 residents of border region of Russia). Out of these, 300 people (or 50% of respondents) were from the cities of Uralsk and Orenburg (region centers), 200 people (or 33% of respondents) – from the district centers Aksai and Iletsk and 100 people (17% of respondents) living in the villages Chingirlau and Linevka. The survey was conducted through a questionnaire, and questionnaires were filled out by the respondents. The questionnaire consisted of two parts, each of which covers important issues in accordance with the objectives of the study. The people of frontier regions of Kazakhstan who had visited Russia and people of frontier regions of Russia who had visited Kazakhstan were surveyed. Data processing is carried out by using professional statistical package SPSS. 7 Generalized Linear Models. Regression analysis is the research of ties regularity between the phenomena (processes) which depend on many, sometimes unknown, factors. The essence of the regression analysis comes to an establishment of a regression equation, i.e. of a type of a curve between the random varieties (arguments x and function y), to a valuation of a ties closeness between them, to an authenticity and adequacy of measurement results. The regression analysis is one of the methods of factors modeling of population migration. It obviously allows to check the hypothesis of migration dependence from factors, its determinants. However in social sciences we often deal with categorical variables not metric ones. Therefore in such cases we need another statistical model, such as Generalized linear models. So we use Generalized linear models in the given work. Generalized linear models refer to more difficult regression models. They are used in such cases when the diagnostics have shown a failure of simple regression models. Generalized linear model is a generalization of linear regression model which allows us: to include the categorical predictor variables along with the continuous ones. In the given work we pay more attention to the last case when the model includes the categorical predictor variables. The purpose of the chapter is to analyze the influence of some independent variables x1, x2, …, xn (age, sex, education, marital status, household income, nationality, citizenship, place of permanent residence and country of permanent residence) on the dependent variable y (intensity of frontier migration). Analysis of the problem is done using Generalized linear models, implemented with the help of an application program package SPSS. For analysis GLM of frontier was used the data of the sample survey. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Features of Kazakhstan-Russia borders The Kazakhstan-Russia border is one of the longest borders in the world, and separates two large countries in the post-Soviet region – Russia and Kazakhstan. The features of the Kazakhstan-Russia border (most of the landscape, infrastructure and demographic characteristics of the Kazakhstan-Russia borderlands) are conducive to intensive cross- border cooperation. First of all, the length of the Kazakhstan-Russia border is almost 7.5 thousand km (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan). The border zone between Kazakhstan and Russia is a densely populated strip which includes economically developed areas with a strong industrial base, a high level of urbanization, and a branched structure of communications. On the Russian side, 12 subjects of the Russian Federation and 70 administrative districts with more than 1,500 communities and over 3 million people are directly adjacent to the border. On the Kazakh side, the territory of Kazakh border regions bordering with Russia occupies 46.7% of all territory of Kazakhstan (Vardomsky and Golunov 2002: 456). Secondly, the majority of the border passes through the plains of the steppes (forest- steppe, semi-desert) region, and the level of population concentration and industrial 8 infrastructure in the border areas is quite large. However, the number of permanent cross- border communication paths that cross the border do not meet the needs of communication between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation at all sections. Thirdly, the border regions of Kazakhstan differ substantially in their resource, raw materials and communication potential. The majority of Kazakhstan’s natural resources are located in the western and northern regions bordering Russia. Cross-border cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia has a diverse character: in the security and regulatory regime of border crossing, production, trade, commercial, financial, transportation, humanitarian (social, educational, cultural), environmental and other fields. All these are conducive to intensive cross-border cooperation and to interaction between the populations of the Kazakhstan and Russia border regions. An ethnic-demographic situation in frontier regions A densely populated region on both sides of the border is an important feature of the Kazakhstan-Russia border area. According to 2009 estimates, there are about 27 million people living in the Russian regions adjacent to Kazakhstan, or 18.8% of the population of Russia (Russian Federal State Statistics Service). The population of the Kazakh regions adjacent to Russia is 5.5 million people, or 34.4% of the population of Kazakhstan (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan). The demographic potential in the border regions of Russia is nearly 5 times higher than in the border regions of Kazakhstan, and it has a tendency to increase in favor of the Russian border regions, whereas an imbalance between the population of Russia and Kazakhstan has a tendency to decrease because of total population decline in the Russian Federation and population increase in the Republic of Kazakhstan over the last ten years. In 1989–1999, migration flow from Kazakhstan helped stabilize the demographic situation in the Russian border regions, and compensate for a natural decline in population. In contrast, the population of border regions of Kazakhstan suffered heavy losses; during the 1989–1999 period, their population decreased by 815 thousand people, representing 65.5% of total population decline in Kazakhstan (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan). Slavic people from Kazakhstan moved largely to the neighboring Russian regions. As a result, ethno-demographic balance has shifted in favor of Kazakhs in almost all regions of the Kazakhstan part of the Kazakhstan-Russia border areas. Between 1989 and 2009, the size of the Russian population of Kazakhstan was reduced to 2.3 million and 1.0 million of those, or 44%, were the Russian population of border regions of Kazakhstan, adjacent to the Russian Federation. The outflow of the Slavic population from the border regions of Kazakhstan which still have a high proportion of Russians continues in an intensive manner, although outflow of the Russian population displays a decreasing tendency in comparison with the previous period. The greatest loss was suffered by the East Kazakhstan region and North Kazakhstan. However, 1.8 million Russian people live in seven regions of Kazakhstan bordering Russia, representing almost 48% of Kazakhstan's 9 Russian population, and the border regions of Kazakhstan are still the regions where the Russian population is concentrated (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan). Thus, this data indicates that the population of the border regions in the 1990s entered a period of downward demographic development. A sharp drop in population growth is a characteristic feature for the two countries – Russia and Kazakhstan in general. In Kazakhstan, the situation has changed due to mass emigration of the Slavic population from the country, whereas in the border areas of Russia, it was an influx of population from neighboring regions of Kazakhstan that has helped to straighten out the demographic situation, while maintaining and even increasing the total population. As a result, the ratio of population in the Russian and Kazakhstan borderlands has changed. The imbalance has increased in favor of Russia: in 1989– 4.12 times more people lived in the above-mentioned areas of Russia than in the border regions of Kazakhstan; by 1999 it was 4.78 times more, and in 2009 it was 4.84 times more (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan). Migration ties between the borderlands of Kazakhstan and Russia are continuing in quite an intense form, but the nature and methods of movements have changed significantly: the massive and irreversible migration from Kazakhstan to Russia, which was characteristic for the 1990s, has been exhausted. In support of the hypothesis of our study, it was determined that frontier migration plays an increasing role, which became the main form of migration processes in the Kazakhstan-Russia borderlands. Frontier migration far exceeds all other forms of migration in the border regions. The Kazakh diaspora in Russia and the Russian diaspora in Kazakhstan are the main basis for the existence and development of such migration networks. Frontier migration on the western side of the Kazakhstan-Russia border Descriptive analysis of frontier migration. As we noted before, for the purpose of specific analysis of frontier migration we carried out a sample survey of the population on both sides of the border according to “vis-à-vis” principle – in the Orenburg and West Kazakhstan region. The west section of the Kazakhstan-Russia border was deliberately chosen, as it is the largest junction of the migration process and in terms of migration activity, it holds top position in the Kazakhstan-Russian migration exchange. Based on our analysis of survey data, we can draw the following conclusions about frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia: • Despite its division by border and the strengthening of border controls at checkpoints, a single space in terms of social and economic relations is preserved. About half of the population of the borderlands continues to travel to a neighboring country to a greater or lesser extent, with 14% travelling at least several times a month. The most visited cities in the Russian Federation by the population of the West Kazakhstan region are located in the Orenburg, Samara and Saratov regions, because of the presence of relatives there, and for other travelling purposes (medical treatment, buying goods for the home, etc.). • A great source of integration between our two countries is the personal relationships between the borders communities established over decades. The most important factor in 10 frontier migration is the preservation of relationships between the residents of borderlands. Almost half of the respondents have cross-border relationships, with about 80% of them staying in touch with those relations on a regular basis. This is why many of the respondents pointed out during questioning that the delimitation of borders, strengthening of border and migration control hits people's ability to communicate freely with each other the hardest. This problem is noted as the most urgent for the residents of the borderlands. • The second largest group of reasons for trips to Russia for the residents of borderlands is the purchase of household goods, and traveling for medical treatment to Russian clinics. They often give opportunities related to obtaining employment or to the implementation of their commercial services as advantages of their place of residence. • An analysis of migration plans showed that most (77.3% of respondents) people do not intend to emigrate from the country. The majority of those wishing to move in the coming years are Russian, in most cases planning to move to Russia. Kazakhs and representatives of other nationalities often simply want to live in economically developed countries. Most people who plan to leave are of active working age (20-49 years), with higher education. • Migration plans clearly point to the "west", with no one planning to move to the countries of Central Asia. The leading motives for peoples’ departure are a desire to improve their economic situation, as well as to live near relatives. More than half of the respondents stated that their homeland and relatives and friends living near to them have prevented them from moving. • The survey showed that there is a certain tendency towards a reduction in trips of the residents of borderlands to the Russian Federation. Amongst those who have been there in the past three years, 40% of the respondents still go there, 37% go less and only 14% go more often. A decrease in trips is associated, on the one hand, with a lack of personal need for them, and on the other hand, with the complexities of crossing of the Kazakhstan- Russia border (queues at the border, customs and border controls). About 2% of respondents who have crossed the border in recent years did so at least once by passing through border and customs posts. • Frontier migrations between Kazakhstan and Russia have clearly become seasonal in nature. According to the survey, 80% of all visits were performed in the summertime. • The strengthening of customs inspections and overly strict border controls were named as amongst the major inconveniences in crossing the border. This was attributed to the distant location of border posts. Every third respondent had encountered some inconvenience on Russian territory due to the presence of domestic nationalism, and harassment on the grounds of nationality. • It was interesting to discover public attitudes to the border delimitation and the prospect of introducing a visa regime. Residents consider border delimitation, above all, as a positive process. This makes their lives more secure due to the establishment of strict rules and controls over those crossing the border. The most common negative aspects mentioned 11 were the complication of border crossings and reduced contact between the residents of borderlands. • Most respondents opposed the introduction of a visa regime as a measure of further tightening of border control (83.8% of West Kazakhstan region respondents and 81.0% of the respondents in the Orenburg region), while 6.3% and 6.7% respectively of the respondents supported this idea. The more regularly people go to Russia the higher the proportion of opponents of a visa regime amongst them. For each third respondent, the visa regime will be an insurmountable obstacle to travel, every tenth respondent will go less often, and only for each fifth respondent will nothing change. • Respondents primarily associated improving the lives of borderlands population with the border crossing regime, i.e., border crossings should be facilitated, minimizing controls at the border. • Two thirds of the respondents have a very friendly attitude towards Russia as their homeland, considering it a friendly country and a good neighbor, with the other respondents displaying a neutral attitude. This indicates approval of the integration policy of the countries. The main priorities in the development of interstate cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia, in their opinion, should be cooperation between the countries in the fields of education, culture and health. The respondents believe that the governments of Kazakhstan and Russia need common economic programs and projects. Development of relations between the neighboring countries at the state level is also important for the people of the borderlands. • Migration scales are influenced by a variety of socioeconomic, ethno-demographic and cultural factors, which have a different degree of development in different areas of the Kazakhstan-Russia border. The problem of identity is closely connected with many factors, although territorial, ethnic, and age-related factors have the most influence on frontier population identity. Self-identification is an identification of someone with a certain social group or community, accepting its objectives and value system, the perception of the person as a member of this group or community. So, the vast majority of all respondents – more than 80% of respondents of the West-Kazakhstan region - identify themselves as citizens of Kazakhstan. This is the situation in the frontier regions of the Russian Federation. This allows us to say that self-identification is an expression of loyalty to and trust in the state in which they are living. There is a sufficient differentiation between the basic ethnic and age groups for this item. Territorial identification works through the identification of a person as an individual as an inhabitant of a certain region and population center. At the same time, the Russians have a higher level of ethnic self- identification. Around 2.0% of respondents give a nostalgic identification, which is defined by such people identifying themselves as Soviet. A significant marker for a given form of identification is the respondent’s age, that is, basically, people of elder age born during the Soviet period. Ethno-psychological problems substantially influence self- identification. As our research has shown, a small group of Russians in Kazakhstan still 12 feel uncertainty. The Russian population in Kazakhstan represents the second and third generation of local Russians. “They clearly recognise their otherness from the Russians in Russia, having formed a special subculture”, uncomfortable both in Russia and in Kazakhstan. In all probability, the frontier region between Kazakhstan and Russia represents a sufficiently comfortable territory of residence for the above mentioned Russian population. It is no surprise that 2.5% of West-Kazakhstan region respondents consider themselves citizens of the Russian Federation, of whom a large proportion have Russian citizenship. Russian citizenship for this group of people serves as a kind of “security guarantee” or “in order not to feel isolated from Russia”. So, as the self- identification analysis of the population of the Kazakhstan-Russia border area has shown, the problem of identity is closely connected with many factors, though territorial, ethnic, and age-related factors have the most influence on frontier population identity. The survey can describe the extent of a serious problem – the presence of a group of people among the population of Kazakhstan with residence and apartment in Kazakhstan while being the citizens of another state, in this case Russia. For this group of people, it is quite obvious to have high migration mobility. This group is very significant for the border areas, since only territorial proximity increases the mobility of people and promotes the formation of such groups. Generalized linear models of frontier migration. On the basis of the sample survey data, we also studied relationships between the social characteristics of respondents and their intensity of frontier migration. We used a generalized linear model (GLM) to analyze the influence of the social characteristics of respondents on the intensity of frontier migration. Direct, apparent or mediated connections between the intensity of frontier migration and social characteristics were discovered, and the relative importance of each characteristic in different kinds of settlement (city, district and village) and country (Russia, Kazakhstan) were determined. • The generalized linear model results show four out of the nine examined independent variables exhibit a statistical significant effect on the intensity of frontier migration, essentially in all computed models – place of permanent residence, country of permanent residence, sex and age. In some models, marital status, nationality, citizenship and education of respondents have an influence on the intensity of the frontier migration. • Regardless of country and place of residence, men are more mobile than women. The main reason for women’s low mobility is that they (unlike men) are deeply involved in looking after the household (childbearing and raising of children, housekeeping etc.). The study also shows that the urban population is more mobile than the rural population. This may be explained by the employment of the rural population. The population in rural areas is mostly engaged in housekeeping, farming etc. • People older than 50 years are more mobile than people in younger age categories in all models. The mobility of people over 50 is somewhat high in comparison with young people. Here, the mobility displayed by those of an older age may be explained by several 13 reasons. First of all, the population aged 50+ is not such an old population; 50-60 year-old people are still at an active age and can work and travel. Secondly, they may have relatives and friends from the Soviet period further away. The population aged 50+ represent people who were born in the USSR and lived within one Soviet state. That is to say, people born in the USSR do not lose relations and friends just because they now live in different states. In contrast, young people are more focused on internal migration, that is, the younger the population is, the weaker the external relations. • So, the intensity of frontier migration basically depends on such indexes as place of permanent residence, country of permanent residence, age and sex. As such, household income does not play any part; this means that economic reasons are in some way suppressed. On the other hand, social and family relations are very important, in as much as the crossing of the border in order to visit relatives and friends is one of the principle reasons for migration. The given event may be explained, on the one hand, by the migration system theory (as discussed above), and on the other hand, by the network theory, that is, by the availability of interpersonal relations in which the migrants interact with their relatives and friends who had left for the other country. The reasons for such relations cover different types of support (information exchange, financial aid, etc.). Relevance of concepts and study results In addition, this dissertation attempts to consider the frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia through the prism of the global concepts of international migration. There are a lot of concepts regarding international migration; we have mentioned some of them. These concepts of international migration have given us the opportunity to analyze frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia, to explain trends and patterns of frontier migration. These concepts correspond to the reality of the Kazakhstan-Russia border and give us the opportunity to explain the reasons for frontier migration, migrants’ behaviors, and the impact of historical and political processes on the development of frontier migration between Kazakhstan and Russia. • So, based on the basic tenets of the theory of migration systems (Kritz, Lim and Zlotnik, 1992: 1-16), we can say that both Kazakhstan and Russian citizens living in the borderland area are quite closely related to each other in their daily lives. Contacts between inhabitants of frontier territories are predetermined by the existence of historic, cultural, economic or political bonds between countries. And according to a theory migration system, the probability of an international migration is especially great between former colonial states and their former colonies (which Russia and Kazakhstan were). The reason for this lies in administrative, transport, communication, investment, cultural, linguistic and other bonds which were established in the Soviet period. Here, an important role is played in particular by cultural and geographical proximity and the geopolitical position of these two states. The stability of migratory bonds is determined by migratory systems – kindred and other bonds of inhabitants of these states. And the main basis for 14 the existence and development of such migratory systems is Kazakh diaspora residents in Russia and Russian diaspora in Kazakhstan. • The concept of "internationalist" culture. As the peripheries of national states, border areas, due to their intermediate position, have themselves acted as "centers of development." These centers develop through social networks and cross-border economic relations (trade, exchange of information, cultural and educational exchanges, etc.). So, we can say that the Kazakhstan-Russia borderland is the "center of cooperation" between the two countries - Kazakhstan and Russia. Because of its periphery, these border regions are remote from the national markets, but because they are located at the border, they have access to the markets of the neighboring state. The concept of "internationalist" culture, which forms among the population of border regions, benefiting from cross-border contacts, was developed by American geographer, O. Martinez. It is based on years studying the border between the United States and Mexico (Martinez, O. 1994: 304). Here, a concept of “internationalist” culture is applicable which is formed amongst the inhabitants of frontier regions, turning frontier contacts to their advantage, in so far as a sufficient part of Kazakhstan and Russian migrants go into the neighboring country to solve personal issues – shopping, studying, for medical purposes, etc. So, in the borderlands between Russia and Kazakhstan, this culture is characterized by increased mobility and receptiveness to innovation. The study shows that the population of border regions is acutely aware of their special interests and is able to exist in several conflict- free "cultural worlds" – the nationwide culture and their ethnic culture, foreign cultures and the specific culture of the border region. • Self-identification. People’s identity is deeply modified in the new conditions because of the growing "mixture" of different ethnic and other groups. More and more people have complicated identities, associating themselves with two or more ethnic and cultural groups. There are growing cultural and linguistic, religious and other identities that are not always clearly related to a specific territory. This leads to a relative weakening of national identity, as people tend to identify themselves with their specific place of residence – the municipality, region, or being part of a separate nationality or social group, in order to isolate themselves from "outsiders" (people of other nationalities, faiths, etc.) by strict administrative barriers. The study has shown that the number of such people is small in the Kazakhstan-Russia borderlands, but it is not insignificant (although it displays a decreasing tendency compared with previous studies). The vast majority of respondents of the West-Kazakhstan region identify themselves as citizens of Kazakhstan. Thus we can say that self-identification is an expression of loyalty and trust to the state in which they are living. • The concept of transnational migration. In the given case, if we follow the concept of German researcher L.Pries (Pries 1996: 456-472), the respondents who associate themselves as a “citizen of Russia” are trans-migrants, who are living in “sending” (Russia) and “accepting” (Kazakhstan) communities and forming a trans-national 15 community simultaneously. As research shows, often trans-migrants do not focus on integration, and this is confirmed by our researchers as well. The trans-migrants crossing international borders and staying in another country keep up social relations with their native country. • In the ordinary state of consciousness, the feeling of an external threat gives rise to a desire to minimize or even to cease contact with an unwanted or dangerous neighbor: if it is not possible to get rid of him, if it is impossible to subdue, control, or resettle him elsewhere, then it is necessary to isolate oneself from this neighbor. Entire countries have applied this strategy by erecting "great walls" – in China, England (separating England from Scotland), Berlin, and today in the Middle East with the Israeli government wanting to protect Israelis from Palestinians through the construction of a great wall (Kolossov 2003: 44-59). A survey conducted in the West Kazakhstan and Orenburg regions showed that the population of border areas see the introduction of a visa regime between Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries and between Russia and Kazakhstan as a solution to the problems of drug trafficking and illegal migration from Central Asia, which corresponds to roughly the same idea: to protect "us" from "them". However, experience has shown that border walls only aggravate these problems. Isolation creates ignorance; ignorance creates fear and mistrust, and such a perception of a neighbor is the most powerful obstacle to reconciliation and finding a real solution. 4. CONCLUSION • The research suggests that the border has not become a barrier constraining the development of trans-boundary contacts, even though the Russian side has been strengthening border controls year on year, citing the need to ensure security. • Border barriers between the two neighboring states, whose inhabitants have always had family and economic relations and who continue to maintain these relations, have seriously complicated the lives of people both in Kazakhstan and in Russia. The newly imposed barriers have worsened and complicated the already difficult course of socioeconomic transformations for people in the two countries, intensifying their economic isolation and periphery. • At the same time, as the survey shows, as long as a relative openness is maintained, the border territory may provide some benefits to residents, who are in favor of interstate integration and are able to make a profit from cross-border contacts for themselves and their families. In the long run, this may give additional incentives to the development of the territories on both sides of the border. • Solving the population problems and regulation of migration processes in the border territories can be most effectively addressed at the local level by the administrations in border areas. Their policies and concrete acts to strengthen the relationship between neighboring countries, creating favorable conditions for economic, social and cultural cooperation will result in real improvements in the lives of their people, and preserve the benefits of open borders between friendly countries. 16 5. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR HOW TO TREAT THE BORDER ZONE AND RELATED FRONTIER MIGRATION Transforming the boundaries of the former Soviet Union, the border regions, and the opportunities and challenges of cross-border cooperation require a deliberate policy aimed at resolving the situation in the Kazakhstan-Russia borderlands with the adoption of specific measures: • In our view, the Kazakhstan-Russia borderlands have rich resources, manufacturing and human capacity, the efficient management of which able to give a significant boost to the development of Kazakhstan-Russian relations. For many regions, especially the border regions and areas directly adjacent to the border, cross-border cooperation is one of the few opportunities to overcome a peripheral position within their country, improve living standards and meet the cultural and other needs of the population. In addition, in our opinion, frontier migration can stimulate the economic development of depressed border areas and cross-border cooperation of neighboring states. • Frontier migration, its regulation and organization, and procedures of implementation should be part of the state migration policy. In our view, it is necessary to develop a simplified border-crossing regime for the residents of border areas. In the future, with the growth of economic relations between Kazakhstan and Russia, the role and importance of frontier migration will increase, and it will become a common form of communication and relationships, with not only economic advantages and enormous spiritual and human potential, but also carrying a significant potential of integration processes. • The nature and extent of frontier migration is greatly influenced by the degree of arrangement of the border. Delimitation and sufficient checkpoints will streamline the process and create normal conditions for the residents of border regions. The introduction of quotas and restrictions will affect the vital interests of large groups. Strengthening border controls and access controls will lead to irrecoverable migration from Kazakhstan (lead to increase of emigration from Kazakhstan). In this regard, there is some point in developing cooperation with neighboring countries, primarily with Russia, which accounts for about 80% of the migration exchange, to allow free migration, including frontier migration. • The resource of frontier migration between neighboring countries can be particularly effectively used in the development of interaction between the large neighboring settlements of Russia and Kazakhstan. Such cities can become "engines" of cooperation of border areas, especially in trade and economic relations. • The problem of crossing the Russian border should be viewed not only in terms of security of the state, but also from the standpoint of the interests of the migrants themselves, who are experiencing some discomfort when passing the border control. • Some efforts to facilitate cross-border communication between settlements adjacent to the border are undertaken, as reflected, for example, in the opening of simplified border checkpoints for residents of border areas between Russia and Kazakhstan. However, these efforts are still insufficient, because they can engage only a relatively small proportion of the population of neighboring regions whose centers are located far enough from the border in cross-border cooperation. 17 REFERENCES Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. 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Bezopasnost i transgranichnoe sotrudnichestvo v zone novykh pogranichnykh territorii Rossii. Moskva–Volgograd. 18 CURRICULUM VITAE Ainur KARZHAUBAYEVA Address: Uralsk, 090000, West Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan E-mail: ainur.karzhaubayeva@gmail.com EDUCATION: 2007-pres. processing towards Ph.D. degree in Demography; Department of Demography, Faculty of Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic 1998-2001 Ph.D. degree in Native History (History of the Republic of Kazakhstan); Department of History of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Faculty of History, West Kazakhstan State University, Uralsk, Kazakhstan 1994-1998 BA degree in History Science, West Kazakhstan Humanitarian University named after A.S.Pushkin, Uralsk, Kazakhstan PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: Kazakhstan 2001-2007 West-Kazakhstan State University after M.Utemisov, Uralsk, Kazakhstan 2006-2007 Head of the Department of History of the Republic of Kazakhstan 2004-2005 Dean of Faculty of History 2003-2004 Head of the Department of the World History 2001-2003 Lecturer, Associate professor 1994-1998 Belogorka Secondary school, West Kazakhstan oblast, Music teacher Russia 2004-2006 Volgograd State University, Russia, Lecturer SCHOLARSHIPS: Kazakhstan State grant for the talented and young scientists. Ministry of Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana, 2004 Grant of the Centre for International Programs “Bolashak”. Ministry of Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana, 2007 19 RESEARCH GRANTS: Rosiya – Kazakhstan: frontierskie migracii. Project of Institute of Forecast of National Economic of Russian Academic of Science. Moscow, 2001 Prigranichnye migracii v Kazakhstane: sostoyanie, problemy i perspektivy. Grant of Soros foundation in Kazakhstan and International Organization of Migration in Kazakhstan. Almaty, Astana, 2003 Realii i prognozy demograficheskogo razvitiza Evraziiskogo prostranstva. Grant of Soros foundation in Kazakhstan and International Organization of Migration in Kazakhstan. Almaty, Astana, 2004 SUMMER SCHOOLS: International Summer School: Demography: theory and methods of research. Almaty, 1999, 2000 International Summer School: Actual issues of instruction of demography in the system of higher education. Ust-Kamenogorsk, 2001 International Summer School: Migration: theory, methods, practice of regulation of migratory processes. Smolensk – Moscow, 2003, 2004, 2005 International school: Use of strategy of active training in teaching of special courses, Center of migratory researches (Russia) – HESP OSI (Hungary). Moscow, 2004 CONFERENCES (take part in 40 conferences): 3rd Demographic Conference of Ph.D. students. Actual Demographic Research of Young Demographers (not only) in Europe. 17-18 February, 2011, Prague, Czech Republic 2nd Demographic Conference of Ph.D. students. Actual Demographic Research of Young Demographers (not only) in Europe. 17 February, 2011, Prague, Czech Republic The 6th D.Valentey Commemorative Readings. International Population Conference, April 22-24, 2010, Moscow, Russia 5th International Anthropological Congress of Ales Hrdlicka “Quo vadis homo …societas humana?” 2–5 September, 2009, Prague, Czech Republic. Partnership of the CIS countries in the field of migration: search of the coordinated decisions, 24-25 September, 2009, Moscow, Russia. Workshop-training “Introduction of training programs in demography at Kazakhstan Universities” Demographers Association of Kazakhstan, United Nations Development Program Kazakhstan, UNFPA, June, 2007, Karkaraly–Karagandy, Kazakhstan. 20 SELECTED PUBLICATIONS: Published more than 40 publications on demographic and migratory problems: 1. Karzhaubayeva, A. 1999. Kazakhskoe naselenie Ural’skoi oblasti v konce XIX veka. Etnodemographicheskie processy v Kazakhstane i sopredel’nykh territoriyakh. Materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferencii. Ust’-Kamenogorsk. P.47-49. 2. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2000. Migracionnye processy v Kazakhstane v gody Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny (1941-1945 gg.). Poisk. Seriya gumanitarnykh nauk. pp.151- 156. 3. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2000. Migracioonye processy v Kazakhstane v 1990-e gody. Molodye uchenye odemographicheskikh problemakh v Kazakhstane. Sbornik nauchnykh statei. – Almaty: Raritet. P.72-85. 4. Karzhaubayeva, A.I. 2001. Migracionnye processy kak factor izmeneniya etnicheskoi struktury naseleniya Zapadnogo Kazakhstan (konec XIX – XX vv.). Rossiya, Sibir’ I Central’naya Aziya: vzaimodeistvie narodov i kul’tur. – Barnaul. P.154-160. 5. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2001. Vneshnyaya migraciya kazakhov Zapadnogo Kazakhstana v 1990-e gody: prichiny i napravleniya. Etnodemographicheski processy v Kazakhstane i sopredel’nykh territoriyakh. Materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferencii – Ust’-Kamenogorsk. P.122-125. 6. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Uchebnaya programma po kursu “Osnovy demography”. Sbornik al’ternativnykh program po demography. – Almaty. P. 67-71. 7. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Uchebnaya programma po kursu “Otechestvenaya demographiya”. Sbornik al’ternativnykh program po demography. – Almaty. P.71-74. 8. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Osnovnye factory i tendencii prigranichnoi migracii mezhdu Zapadnym Kazakhstanom i Rossiei. Migraciya i opyt vzaimodeistviya regionov po usileniyu ethnopoliticheskoi stabil’nosti v Evrazii. – Novosibirsk. P.65-69. 9. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Migracionnye processy v Zapadnom Kazakhstane v 1950-e gody. Etnodemographicheskie processy v Kazakhstane i sopredel’nykh territoriyakh. Materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferencii – Ust’-Kamenogorsk. P.52-54. 10. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Staroe i novoe v migracionnykh processakh mezhdu Zapadnym Kazakhstanom i Rossiei. Rossiya – Kazakhstan: frontierskie migracii. Sbornik nauchnykh trudov. – Moskva – Uralsk. P.108-122. 11. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Frontierskie migracii mezhdu Zapadnym Kazakhstanom i Rossiei. Migracioonaya situaciya v Rossii. Materiyaly II Mezhdunarodnoi molodezhnoi konferencii. Nizhnii Novgorod – Moskva. P.20-28. 12. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2002. Osnovnye tendencii vneshnei migracii i dinamika chislennosti kazakhskogo naseleniya Zapadnogo Kazakhstana v 1989-1999 gg. Vestnik Zapadno-Kazakhstanskogo universiteta. N3. P.81-89. 21 13. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2003. Vliyanie gosudarstvennoi migracionnoi politiki na ethnodemographicheskoe razvitie naseleniya zapadnogo Kazakhstana v 1930 – 1940-e gody. Vestnik KazNU. Seriya istoricheskaya. N1. P.35-37. 14. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2003. Istochniki informacii o migracii naseleniya v Kazakhstane. Vestnik KazNU. Seriya istoricheskaya. N1. P.87-90. 15. Karzhaubayeva, A. Rol’ migracionnykh processov v formirovanii sovremenogo naseleniya Zapadnogo Kazakhstana. Dissertaciya na soiskanie uchennoi stepeni kandidata istoricheskikh nauk. Uralsk, 2003. P. 137. 16. Karzhaubayeva, A. Rol’ migracionnykh processov v formirovanii sovremenogo naseleniya Zapadnogo Kazakhstana. Avforeferat dissertacii na soiskanie uchennoi stepeni kandidata istoricheskikh nauk. Uralsk, 2003. P. 137. 17. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2003. Osnovnye tendencii migracionnykh processov v 1950-e gody v Zapadnom Kazakhstane. Aktual’nye problemy social’no-politicheskoi transformacii obshestva. Sbornik nauchnykh trudov. – Almaty. P.87-92. 18. Karzhaubayeva, A. Prigranicnaya migraciya mezhdu Kazakhstanom I Rossiei (na primere Zapadno-Kazakhstanskoi oblasti). “Starye” i ”novyegranicy” Evrazii I Severnoi Ameriki. Problemy bezopasnosti i sotrudnichestva Vypusk 1. Volgograd, 2004. S.135-144. 19. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2005. Istochniki informacii o migracii naseleniya v Kazakhstane. Realii i prognozy demographiskogo razvitiya Evraziiskogo prostranstva. Materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferencii, 15-16 maya 2004. /Pod redakciei T.Kuchera i A.Karzhaubayevoi. – Almaty: Raritet. P.130-138 20. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2010. Etnodemographicheskie processy v Zapadnom Kazakhstane v XIX-XXI vekakh. Problemy narodonaseleniya v zerkale istorii. Shestye Valenteevskie chteniya. Sbornik materialov mezhdunarodnoi konferencii 22-24 aprelya 2010. – Moskva. P.230-241. 21. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2010. Ethnodemographic process in the Western Kazakhstanin the XIX-XXI centuries. Etnodemographicheskie processy v Kazakhstane i sopredel’nykh territoriyakh. Sbornik nauchnykh trudov Mezhdunarodnoi konferencii 28-29 maya 2010. – Ust’-Kamenogorsk: Librius. P.229-239. 22. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2010. Border region migration between Kazakhstan and Russia: in a case of the West Kazakhstan. Actual demographic research of young demographers (not only) in Europe. 2nd Demographic Conference of “Young Demographers”. Prague. P.19. 23. Karzhaubayeva, A. 2011. Features of frontier migration in the western site of Kazakhstan-Russia border. Poster. Actual demographic research of young demographers (not only) in Europe. 2nd Demographic Conference of “Young Demographers”. Prague. 22
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