PředmětyPředměty(verze: 945)
Předmět, akademický rok 2023/2024
   Přihlásit přes CAS
Tools for Modern Macroeconometrics - JEM158
Anglický název: Tools for Modern Macroeconometrics
Český název: Tools for Modern Macroeconometrics
Zajišťuje: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
Fakulta: Fakulta sociálních věd
Platnost: od 2022
Semestr: letní
E-Kredity: 6
Způsob provedení zkoušky: letní s.:
Rozsah, examinace: letní s.:2/2, Zk [HT]
Počet míst: 20 / 20 (neurčen)
Minimální obsazenost: neomezen
4EU+: ne
Virtuální mobilita / počet míst pro virtuální mobilitu: ne
Stav předmětu: vyučován
Jazyk výuky: angličtina
Způsob výuky: prezenční
Způsob výuky: prezenční
Další informace: http://dl1.cuni.cz/course/view.php?id=880
Poznámka: předmět je možno zapsat mimo plán
povolen pro zápis po webu
při zápisu přednost, je-li ve stud. plánu
Garant: PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D.
Mgr. Lukáš Vácha, Ph.D.
Vyučující: PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D.
Dipl.-Ing. Mathieu Petit, B.Sc.
Mgr. Lukáš Vácha, Ph.D.
Třída: Courses for incoming students
Soubory Komentář Kdo přidal
stáhnout Tools for Modern Macroeconometrics 2023.docx Syllabus PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D.
Anotace -
Poslední úprava: PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D. (15.02.2023)
Students aiming for a career in central banks, academia or international institutions will learn methods that are necessary to understand, replicate and conduct empirical research in macroeconomics.
The first part of the course covers modelling univariate time series (stationary and nonstationary models, spectral analysis, regime-shift models). The second part of the semester is devoted to multivariate models, forecasting, and identification of causal relationships in macroeconomics. The recently developed approaches to identification such as external instruments in VAR or high frequency identification are covered as well.
Our course participants apply all covered methods in regular problem sets that are based on replications of academic papers. These problem sets are presented and discussed in the seminars.
Problem sets shall be prepared in R and delivered as Jupyter notebooks, sample R-codes are provided.
Podmínky zakončení předmětu -
Poslední úprava: PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D. (15.02.2023)

Assignment: Final paper

Choose one country for which you will estimate the propagation of a shock of your interest and forecast the GDP growth and inflation. To do that, you will utilize the methods covered in the course and explore their properties, forecast performance, and robustness.

The final paper will be prepared throughout the whole semester, with three intermediate deadlines:

  1. after lecture 4: ARIMA model of inflation and GDP, estimation of potential structural breaks, estimation of spectra of both series, forecast 1 period and 1 year ahead; evaluation of a cyclical position of the economy
  2. after lecture 8: VAR I - short-run restrictions, sign restrictions + VAR forecasts.
  3. after lecture 11: VAR II - local projections, Bayesian VAR + BVAR forecasts.

The outcomes of these intermediate stages will be presented and discussed during the seminars.

Grades: Intermediate stages and presentations - 20 points each (60 in total), final paper + presentation, and participation at the workshop 40 points. The final paper and participation at the workshop are necessary conditions to pass the course, even if the sum of intermediate points exceeds 50.5 

Grading scale: 100 - 91 A; 90 - 81 B; 80 - 71 C; 70 - 61 D ; 60 - 51 E; 50 - 0 F

Literatura -
Poslední úprava: PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D. (07.02.2022)

We provide most of the necessary information in our presentations and in sample codes. If needed, we encourage students to consult in the following textbooks and in articles mentioned in the syllabus.

Kilian, L., & Lütkepohl, H.: Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017.

Enders, W.: Applied Econometric Time Series, 3rd ed., Wiley, 2009

Lütkepohl, H.: New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer, 2005.

Kočenda, E., Černý, A.: Elements of Time Series Econometrics: An Applied Approach, Karolinum 2007

Metody výuky -
Poslední úprava: PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D. (07.02.2022)

Lectures will provide context and description of the empirical methods.

Students are supposed to cover selected methods in regular problem sets, that are based on replications of academic papers. Sample R codes will be provided. Problem sets are presented and discussed during the seminars.

Sylabus -
Poslední úprava: PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D. (15.02.2023)

Lecture 1   - Intro + Review of time series models. AR, MA, ARMA models and their properties. Stationarity: economic and econometric interpretation, unit-root tests. 

Lecture 2   - Nonstationary models, structural breaks, and forecasting.

Lecture 3   - Spectra, cycles, and filters. Frequency domain analysis of time series. Spectrum, periodogram.

Lecture 4   - Evaluating business cycles in real-time. Can we predict turning points?  

Lecture 5   - State space and dynamic factor models: Synthesize many series for predictions. 

Lecture 6   - A primer of Vector autoregressions.  Identification of turning points, leading indicators, nowcasting.

Lecture 7   - Identification of VAR models. Structural VARs.

Lecture 8   - Identification of VAR models (Cont.) Sign restrictions.

Lecture 9   - Direct estimation of impulse responses: Local projections and narrative approach

Lecture 10   - VARs with nonstationary variables. Cointegration and VECM.

Lecture 11 - Bayesian VARs and Large VARs. Principles of Bayesian estimation. Bayesian VARs, FAVAR, and alternatives.

Lecture 12 - Recent approaches to identification. External instruments (proxy SVAR) and high-frequency identification. Local projections.

Lecture 13 - Nonlinear models. Univariate and multivariate nonlinear models.

Univerzita Karlova | Informační systém UK