Population Projections and Forecasts - MD360P94

• Title: Population Projections and Forecasts
• Czech title: Populační projekce a prognózy
• Guaranteed by: Department of Demography and Geodemography (31-360)
• Faculty: Faculty of Science
• Actual: from 2023
• Semester: winter
• E-Credits: 6
• Examination process: winter s.:combined
• Hours per week, examination: winter s.:2/2, C+Ex [HT]
• Capacity: unlimited
• Min. number of students: unlimited
• 4EU+: no
• Virtual mobility / capacity: no
• State of the course: taught
• Language: English
• Note: enabled for web enrollment
• Guarantor: RNDr. Tomáš Kučera, CSc.
• Teacher(s): RNDr. Tomáš Kučera, CSc.
• Class: Mobilní učebna pro kurz(y) Population P. notebooky; Mobilní učebna pro kurz(y) Population P. dataproj.; Instalace SW; Původní předmět

Annotation

Last update: RNDr. Barbora Janáková Kuprová, Ph.D. (05.04.2022)

The course is primarily designed to help students develop the knowledge and skills necessary for understanding and correct interpreting population forecasts and their results. To this end, it addresses such topics as the terminology related to the subject of the course, the history of population projections and forecasting, primary classifications of population forecasts, the concept of forecasting as a continuous and systemic process, international recommendations on population forecasting, and significant trends in and outputs of population forecasting in a national and supranational perspective. The course draws particular attention to the methodology used for making the forecasts – the identification of the population system, description and analysis of the system development, the projection model construction, forecasting of the model parameters, the model application, documentation, interpretation and presentation of the results, and the evaluation of the forecast. It also covers some case studies to demonstrate how population forecasts could help find solutions to issues faced by social policy and practice. An overview and assessment of population forecasting, and population perspectives of the world and its parts is a supplementary theme of the course.

To acquaint the students with the theory and practice of population forecasting, specifically the fundamental methodological principles of population forecasting. To develop students´ knowledge needed to understand the population forecasts, and skills correctly interpret and apply their results. To intermediate fundamental information on current population prospects of the world and its parts.

Literature

Last update: RNDr. Barbora Janáková Kuprová, Ph.D. (05.04.2022)

Compulsory Literature:

Nico W. Keilman, Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. Swets& Zeitlinger, 1990. 

John F. Long, Complexity, Accuracy, and Utility of Official Population Projections. Mathematical Population Studies: An International Journal of Mathematical Demography 5, no. 3, 1995. 

Nathan Keyfitz, The Social and Political Context of Population Forecasting. IIASA Working Paper WP-84-003, 1984. 

Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman David and A. Swanson, A Practitioner’s Guide to State and Local Population Projections. Springer, 2013. 

 

Recommended Literature:

Scott J. Armstrong, Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2002. 

Kenneth C. Land, Methods for National Population Forecasts: A Review. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81 no. 347, 1986.

Wolfgang Lutz, Scenario Analysis in Population Projection. IIASA Working Paper WP-95-57, 1995.

Donald B. Pittenger, Population forecasting standards: Some considerations concerning their necessity and content. Demography, 14, 363-368, 1977.

Andrei Rogers, Population Forecasting: Do Simple Models Outperform Complex Models? Mathematical Population Studies: An International Journal of Mathematical Demography 5, no.3, 1995.

Warren C. Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Wolfgang Lutz, and Brian C. O’Neill, Formation and Sustainable Development, edited by W. Lutz, W. C. Sanderson, and S. Scherbov. Earthscan/IIASA, 2004.

Population Estimates and Projections (dataset), World Bank, 2014. https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/population-estimates-and-projections

World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision (website), United Nations, 2019. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/ 

 

Requirements to the exam

Last update: RNDr. Barbora Janáková Kuprová, Ph.D. (05.04.2022)

·                 30% Tutorial and homework exercises

·                 20% Presentation

·                 50% Exam                          

The final grade for this module will be based on the completion of exercises and homework for the tutorial sessions, the presentation prepared for a seminar and the passing the final exam. Students are also expected to attend at minimum 66% of all classes in order to pass the module.

Syllabus

Last update: RNDr. Barbora Janáková Kuprová, Ph.D. (05.04.2022)

Learning Outcomes:

Having successfully completed this course a student will be able to:

·         Distinguish between the model population projection and forecast;

·         Formulate properly a population forecast assignment;

·         Understand population forecasting as a continuous process;

·         Check completeness and assess the quality of population forecasts;

·         Understand population forecasts and correctly interpret their results.

·         Present and actively discuss history of population forecasting in and principal population perspectives of the Czech Republic and the world

1.   Introduction to the course: goal, program, tasks of students, conditions for completing the course and basic time schedule. Introduction to population forecasting.

2.   Methodological development of population forecasting - approaches and methods: forecasting as modeling of population development and the question of system approach, population development as an internally undifferentiated process: modeling of population growth and structure problem, population development as an internally differentiated process

3.   Cohort-component model of population development, overview of partial stages of population forecasting, population forecasting as a continuous activity. Definition of the forecast population: population defined by assignment and forecast population, principles of disaggregation of the forecast population.

4.   Description and analysis of current development: categorization and collection of information on the forecast population, overview of indicators used for prognostically oriented analysis of population development, basic principles of analysis of population development components - fertility, mortality and migration: search for elements of stability in development and detection of development trends, randomness and possibilities of its elimination.

5.   Construction of projection model: classical cohort-component model of population growth, multiregional and multistate model of population growth.

6.   Forecast of development of projection model parameters: parameters and sensitivity analysis of projection model, general, principles of formulation of prognostic assumptions, correction indicators, and practical example of compilation of partial prognoses of fertility, mortality and migration.

7.   Projection calculations: software of projection calculations (PoFoS) and the possibility of using a spreadsheet (MS Excel). Presentation of population forecasts: uncertainty and methods of presentation of uncertainty of population forecast results, standard content and structure of publication outputs of population forecast.

8.   Evaluation of forecasts: the concept of forecast quality and forecasting activities, reliability, credibility and accuracy of forecasts, methods of measuring the inaccuracy of forecast results, basic features of inaccuracy of population forecasts, results of selected evaluations of the accuracy of population forecasts.

9.   Interpretation and application of population forecast results: uncertainty of forecast results and certainty of accepted solutions in planning and decision-making practice, stereotypes of planning and decision-making practice in approach to population forecasts, principles of working with variants in application of population forecast results.

10.    National and international practice of population forecasting: official and competitive population forecasts, main producers of population forecasts, evaluation of official population forecasting practice, role of the UN in forecasting population development and unification of methodology, global population forecasts (UN, IASA, etc.).

11.    Current trends in the development of population forecasting in the world: system approach, multi-state projection models, generational approach to fertility and mortality analysis, life cycle analysis, sample surveys as a source of information for forecasting, regional development forecasting, stochastic forecasts.

12.    World Population Prospects: their methodology, use and principal results

13.    Seminars (I-IV)

Entry requirements

Last update: RNDr. Barbora Janáková Kuprová, Ph.D. (05.04.2022)

Basic knowledge of demography, ability to work with a personal computer, basic mastery of work with MS Excel and MS Access program applications