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Advanced Demographic Analysis (III) - MD360P08
Title: Demografická analýza III
Czech title: Demografická analýza III
Guaranteed by: Department of Demography and Geodemography (31-360)
Faculty: Faculty of Science
Actual: from 2020
Semester: winter
E-Credits: 5
Examination process: winter s.:combined
Hours per week, examination: winter s.:2/2, C+Ex [HT]
Capacity: unlimited
Min. number of students: unlimited
4EU+: no
Virtual mobility / capacity: no
State of the course: taught
Language: Czech
Level: specialized
Is provided by: MD360P90
Explanation: od 2020/21 nahrazen pro nově zapsané studenty MD360P90
Guarantor: prof. RNDr. Jitka Rychtaříková, CSc.
Teacher(s): doc. RNDr. Jiřina Kocourková, Ph.D.
prof. RNDr. Jitka Rychtaříková, CSc.
Mgr. Elizaveta Ukolova
Incompatibility : MD360P08N, MD360P90
Is incompatible with: MD360P90, MD360P08N
Annotation -
Advanced methods in demographic analysis using multidimensional statistics and matrix algebra techniques. Model life tables and their use. Stable, semi-stable and quazi-stable populations. Models of nuptiality and fertility. Gains in life expectancy - Pressat and Pollard methods. Decomposition of rates in demography (das Gupta.Survival analysis, the hazard function, censoring, using survival analysis to estimate a life table. Multistate demography, uniradix and multiradix life tables, multiregional, by marital status and working life tables. Multiple standardization for several factors, multiplicative model, proportional hazard model. Age-period cohort models. Health life expectancy, disability free life tables, methods of Sullivan, Katz and multistate approach.
Last update: Rychtaříková Jitka, prof. RNDr., CSc. (01.07.2021)
Literature -

Caselli, G., Vallin, J., Wunsch, G. Demography: Analysis and Synthesis. Elsevier. 2006.
Readings in Population Research Methodology, Social Development Center for the UN Population Fund, Chicago 1993.
Preston, S.H., Heuveline, P., Guillot, M. Demography (Measuring and Modeling Population Processes). Blackwell. 2001.
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/Model_Life_Tables/Model_Life_Tables.htm
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/Manual_X/Manual_X.htm
http://www.un.org/esa/population/techcoop/manuals.html,http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Model-Life- Tables/download-page.html
http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/tools_software/en/
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/projects_publications/publications_1904/mpidr_technical_reports/default.htm
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/projects_publications/publications_ 1904/mpidr_technical_reports/an_excel_spreadsheet_for_the_decomposition_of_a_difference_between_two_ values_of_an_aggregate_4591.htm
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/projects_publications/publications_ 1904/mpidr_technical_reports/age_decomposition_of_a_difference_between_two_populations_for_any_life_ta ble_quantity_in_excel_3838.htm
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/projects_publications/publications_ 1904/mpidr_technical_reports/spreadsheet_for_calculation_of_life_table_dispersion_measures_3837.htm

 


Hendl, J. Přehled statistických metod zpracování dat. 2004. Praha: Portál.
Wonnacot, T. - Wonnacot, R. Statistika pro obchod a hospodářství. 1995. Praha: Victoria Publishing.

Last update: Rychtaříková Jitka, prof. RNDr., CSc. (01.07.2021)
Requirements to the exam -

Oral exam. Students will answer two questions based on the topics listed in the syllabus. Precondition is the credit of having successfully passed the final written test and completing the tasks required in the course.

Last update: Rychtaříková Jitka, prof. RNDr., CSc. (01.07.2021)
Syllabus -

 

1.     Smoothing mortality curves - analytical methods. Variable Transformations. Gompertz, Makeham, Heligman and Pollard. Functions used and interpretation of parameters. The TOPALS model. MORTPAK for Windows Version 4.3

 

2.     Model Life Tables I. Principles of construction: regression methods, relational methods, and multidimensional statistical methods. Model Life Tables: The United Nations Tables (1955). Gabriel and Ronen (1958), The Princeton Tables (Coale and Demeny, Vaughan, Guo). The Ledermann Tables. Input data and the limitations.

 

3.     Model Life Tables II. W.Brass relational model life table, the relationship between the observed and reference (standard) tables. The OECD tables (groups A,B,C,D,E), The United Nations Tables (1982, 2010), The new WHO model life tables. Input data, methods of construction and the use.

 

4.     Stationary, Stable, Semistable, and Quasi-stable Populations. Geometric and exponential growth. Leslie matrix. Population momentum concept. The impact of fertility and mortality change on population age structure.

 

5.     Nuptiality and Fertility Models. The singulate mean age at marriage(Hajnal). Nuptiality models (Coale), common standard pattern (3 parameters), standard functions (double exponential). Fertility models (Coale Trussell), natural fertility, deviation pattern from natural fertility, marital fertility (parameters m, M). Brass relational Gompertz fertility model, cumulative proportional ASFR, gompits, equation.

 

6.     Methods of Decomposing a Difference between Rates (Kitagawa, das Gupta). Decomposing a difference between two crude rates into two or three components (including an interaction term). Effects due to change in structure and to change in intensity. The concept of standardizing rates. The differences between two sexes, periods or two countries. Excel spreadsheets MPIDR.

 

7.      Methods of Decomposing a Difference between Life Tables (Pressat, Pollard, Arriaga). The impact of each age-specific difference in mortality on a difference between two life expectancies. The contribution of causes of deaths (Pollard). The use of temporary life expectancy between two specific ages (Arriaga), the index of relative change, effects due to the change of mortality in each particular age group (direct and indirect effect), effect of the interaction. Excel spreadsheets MPIDR.

 

8.     Multistate Demography I (Increment-Decrement Life Tables). Transitions from one state to another, absorbing state, non-absorbing state, reverse flows. Uniradix and multiradix tables. Transition probabilities: two options. Matrix M (observed transition rates), matrix P. Elementary multiregional life table functions), Multiregional Life Tables by place of residence, by place of birth.

 

9.     Multistate Demography II (Marital Change Life Tables, Health status). Union formation and dissolution. Multistate scheme. Program SPACE/SAS http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/space.htm

 

10.  Tables of Working Life. Conventional model: three assumptions. Population-based measure, Labour-force based measure. Multistate table, age-specific rates of mortality, accession, and separation; transition probabilities, alternative paths of survival and labour force attachment.

 

11.  Health analysis. Advanced epidemiology methodology. Change in prevalence of chronic diseases and disabilities. Three theories: morbidity expansion, morbidity compression, dynamic equilibrium concept. Health expectancies; healthy Life Years (disability- free life expectancy); healthy life expectancy (self-rated health). Calculation of health expectancy (concepts of Sullivan method, double decrement life table, multistate life table). Program SPACE/SAS.

 

12.  Age-Period-Cohort models. Variation in demographic rates due to Age effects, Period effects, Cohort effects. Estimating effects. Horiuchi-Coale approach: age-specific rate of mortality change with age: k(x). Wilmoth method based on residual analysis (SVD).

 

 

 

 

Last update: Rychtaříková Jitka, prof. RNDr., CSc. (01.07.2021)
 
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