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Course, academic year 2024/2025
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Current Central Asia: building autocracy for the 21st century - JTM524
Title: Current Central Asia: building autocracy for the 21st century
Guaranteed by: Department of Russian and East European Studies (23-KRVS)
Faculty: Faculty of Social Sciences
Actual: from 2023
Semester: summer
E-Credits: 6
Examination process: summer s.:
Hours per week, examination: summer s.:1/1, Ex [HT]
Capacity: 15 / unknown (15)
Min. number of students: unlimited
4EU+: no
Virtual mobility / capacity: no
State of the course: taught
Language: English
Teaching methods: full-time
Note: course can be enrolled in outside the study plan
enabled for web enrollment
priority enrollment if the course is part of the study plan
Guarantor: Mgr. Anna Jordanová
Teacher(s): Mgr. Anna Jordanová
Class: Courses for incoming students
Annotation
"From the lectures and reading, I feel that I have all the necessary information to become an autocrat." (student reference, spring 2024)

The course provides students a solid understanding of the key theoretical concepts related to the contemporary autocratic regimes. In accordance with the current academic debate, participants will be able to effectively apply these concepts on practical empirical cases from non-democratic contexts. Most of the empirical material provided by the lecturer will be related to Central Asia, however, students are welcome to bring and present their own data from other regions of their interest. The course is especially relevant to students considering writing their final thesis on autocratic affairs in the contemporary politics.

Last update: Jordanová Anna, Mgr. (28.10.2024)
Aim of the course

How do autocratic regimes emerge, consolidate and perish? How does repression work and what is its purpose? Do autocrats help each other? Why are some autocracies more successful than others? What is the role of various power groups and cliques within the regimes? What happens, when an autocrat is ousted from power?

The students will gain a more profound understanding of the essential features of autocratic regimes in the contemporary political environment, especially those related to their internal dynamics, role the key internal actors and groups (including the usefulness of various typologies), context-based strategies of elites’ survival and the regimes’ standing in the globalized world. The emphasis will be put on practical use and applicability of specific examples most relevant in the contemporary political science and IR, rather than on all-encompassing and deep political science discussion. Students will be also offered experimental exercises in order to practice their understanding of the topic.

The course might especially relevant for those considering writing their final BA or MA theses on autocratic regimes and their internal dynamics, but also for anyone curious about how modern autocracies "work".

Last update: Jordanová Anna, Mgr. (22.12.2024)
Course completion requirements

40% Presentation during the seminar: Application of the key theoretical concept to an empirical material. Each student is expected to share a summary of key points of his/her presentation at least 48 hours in advance. 

40% In-class activity: Students are expected to a) provide feedback to their peers during the seminar b) provide a written summary (2-3 paragraphs) of the assigned literature before each of the seven lectures.  

20% Final report: A short piece summarizing the student’s remarks on the literature, in-class debates and feedback to his/her presentation.

Registration for presentations: here
Folders for students' summaries and presentations: here.
This course does not use moodle!

More in SMĚRNICE S_SO_002: Organizace zkouškových termínů, kontrol studia a užívání klasifikace A–F na FSV UK.

Last update: Jordanová Anna, Mgr. (18.02.2025)
Literature

Ref. the syllabus.

Last update: Jordanová Anna, Mgr. (22.12.2024)
Teaching methods

The course is a combination of lectures and seminars based on essential readings and in-class debate. The first half of the semester consists of lectures introducing key theoretical concepts related to internal dynamics of autocratic regimes, especially survival options of their elites, agenda of specific intra-regime groups and perspectives for long-term stability. In the second half of the semester, the students will apply these theoretical concepts to practical empirical issues and present their analysis to their classmates for discussion. The course does not focus on the normative aspect of democracy or autocracy promotion.

Sufficient command of English is necessary. All readings are available through the UK FSV library or online databases.

Last update: Jordanová Anna, Mgr. (22.12.2024)
Syllabus

Students interested in specific theories or methods not listed in the syllabus are encouraged to suggest them to the teacher BEFORE THE FIRST INTRODUCTORY LECTURE. If possible, they will be added to the semester content. !!!

1.     20
/2 INTRODUCTORY LECTURE.

Outline of the course and research interests of the students. Calibration to previous knowledge of the students. Is autocracy becoming a “new normal”, or has always been?

2.     27/2 Defining and typologizing autocracies. People within.

The central goal of all autocratic regimes remains the same: to monopolize political power and to preserve it. And people in power want to stay there, usually at all costs. Yet – how do autocracies work from within and who are the key groups ruling them? 

Key topics: Typology: what autocracies and what leaders?? Winning Coalition, Selectorate and the others. Patronalism and neo-patrimonialism in particular. System vs. Regime.
Literature:

- de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, et al. (2004) The Logic of Political Survival. Chapter 2. The MIT Press. 

At least one of the following:

Isaacs, Rico and Frigerio, Alessandro. Theorizing Central Asian Politics: The State, Ideology and Power. Palgrave, 2019. Chapter 8.
Hanson, S. E. and Kopstein, J. S. (2022) “Understanding the Global Patrimonial Wave,” Perspectives on Politics. Cambridge University Press, 20(1), pp. 237–249.
Hale, H. E. (2014) Patronal Politics: Eurasian Regime Dynamics in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (Problems of International Politics). Chapters 5 and 11.

Example of good application: Lee, Hanhee. Analyzing the political survival prospects of Kim Jong-un’s North  Korean regime through the framework of selectorate theory. Japanese Journal of Political Science (2018), 19, 474–488.

3.     6/3 Transfer of power and subsequent regime consolidation.

As long as autocracies are ruled by mortal people, occasional changes at positions of power are necessary. While in democracies the mechanism and timing are guaranteed and enforced by constitution and courts, in autocracies there are much more diverse ways, stretching from installing a hand-picked successor over collective decision-making to an all-in scramble for power.  The winner takes (almost) all; what happens to the losers?

Key topics: transition of office vs. transition of power. Dilemma of hereditary grooming. De-personalization.
Literature:

- Acemoglu, A. & Robinson, J. A. (2001) A theory of political transitions. The American Economic Review, 91(4), 938-963.      

At least one of the following:
Anceschi, Luca. After Personalism: Rethinking Power Transfers in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Journal of contemporary Asia, 2021, 51(4), pp.660-680.
Brownlee, Jason. Hereditary succession in modern autocracies. World Politics, Volume 59, Number 4, July 2007, pp. 595-628.
Gillespie, Kate, and Gwenn Okruhlik. “The Political Dimensions of Corruption Cleanups: A Framework for Analysis.” Comparative Politics 24, no. 1 (1991): 77–95.
Kendall-Taylor, A., & Frantz, E. (2016). When dictators die. Journal of Democracy, 27(4), 159-171.

 

4.     13/3 Autocratic solidarity and cooperation

Autocratic rulers by definition do not like independent institutional restraints and do not willingly share their power with other actors. However, usually they have to cooperate or at least coexist in order to keep their economies afloat and their regimes safe. And, if they see fitting, they can even work closely together. What are the main incentives and what are the main obstacles?

Key topics: International institutions and informal clubs. Inter-dependence and cooperation.  

Literature:
Tansey, O., Koehler, K., & Schmotz, A. (2017). Ties to the Rest: Autocratic Linkages and Regime Survival. Comparative Political Studies, 50(9), 1221-1254
Poujol, Catherine. International Relations in Central Asia: A Focus on Foreign Policies (1991-2020). In: Jeroen Van den Bosch, Adrien Fauve, Bruno De Cordier (eds.) The European Handbook of Central Asian Studies History, Politics, and Societies. EISCAS, ibidem-Verlag, Stuttgart 2021.

Optional:
Allison, Roy, 2018. Protective Integration and Security Policy Coordination: Comparing the SCO and CSTO. The Chinese journal of international politics, 11(3), pp.297-338.



5.     20/3 How long do autocracies last and how do they collapse?

Some autocracies collapse or transform shortly after their emergence, other manage to outlast generations. The same goes for people: some leaders stay in office for decades, even if their performance is poor, while some fall sooner than even expected. What factors lead to longevity of non-democratic regimes? 

Key topics: longevity, durability, resilience. Challenges from within and from the outside.

Literature:

Geddes, B., Wright, J., & Frantz, E. (2014). Autocratic breakdown and regime transitions: A new data set. Perspectives on politics, 12(2), 313-331.
Hale, H. E. (2014) Patronal Politics: Eurasian Regime Dynamics in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (Problems of International Politics). Chapter 7 (the Kyrygyzstan part) and chapter 8 (241-248)

Optional:
Abel Polese, Donnacha Ó Beacháin & Slavomír Horák (2017) Strategies of legitimation in Central Asia: regime durability in Turkmenistan, Contemporary Politics, 23:4, 427-445.
Gel’man, Vladimir. (2022). The Politics of Bad Governance in Contemporary Russia. Chapters 1-2). University of Michigan Press.
Levitsky, S., & Way, L. (2013). The durability of revolutionary regimes. Journal of Democracy, 24(3), 5-17.

 

6.     27/3 Autocracy and repression: domestic and transnational

Repression is frequently linked with non-democratic regimes. However, repression occurs in an entire variety of areas, with different intensity and frequency. Why some regimes react violently to even the the most negligible protest, but others seem as not even caring? And how do autocracies behave outside their borders? How does it corresponds with the regime dynamics? (at the beginning even autocrats could be more “tolerant” towards the protests, while the regime could tightened its attitude towards the “alternatives” as it lasts long.

Key topics: repression, co-optation; regime resilience, domestic and transnational
Literature:

At least two:
Frantz, Erica, and Andrea Kendall-Taylor. “A Dictator’s Toolkit: Understanding How Co-Optation Affects Repression in Autocracies.” Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 3 (2014): 332–46.
Keremoğlu Eda et al. Thin-skinned leaders: regime legitimation, protest issues, and repression in autocracies. Political Science Research and Methods. 2022;10(1):136-152.
Gandhi, J., & Przeworski, A. (2006). Cooperation, cooptation, and rebellion under dictatorships. Economics & politics, 18(1), 1-26.

Optional:
Dukalskis, Alexander et al. Transnational repression: data advances, comparisons, and challenges. Political research Exchange 2022, vol.4, 1-17.

7.     3/4:  State, ideology and autocracy
Literature: TBC

Seminars: [might be updated following the public holidays in Czech republic in 2025] practical application of the discussed theory on empirical examples from non-democratic contexts in late 20th and 21st centuries.
Further optional reading on Central Asian affairs: Central Asia for beginners list


[Spare lecture: Doing research in autocratic contexts. Ethics, risks, and opportunities.]

Last update: Jordanová Anna, Mgr. (20.03.2025)
 
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