Last update: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (02.02.2024)
This course is focused on advanced international macroeconomics with an emphasis on the issues associated with international financial flows. It contrasts benefits and potential challenges associated with these international financial flows. It starts with studying the intertemporal trade between economies and equilibrium current account determination with perfect financial markets. The implications of sudden stops in international lending or capital flight are then discussed. One lecture deals with the twin-deficit phenomenon and interpretation of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. The neo-classical growth model for a small open economy facing borrowing constraints is derived. The price level convergence is also studied using the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Attention is also paid to financial imperfections and their impact on international capital allocation. The second block of lectures starts with discussing the exchange rate regime choice, currency crises and the optimum currency area theory. The focus is then put on the inflation-targeting regime in small open economies, reaction of central banks to foreign shocks, discussion of exchange rate management under the inflation targeting, etc. The course assumes a prior good knowledge of closed-economy macroeconomics at the level of master studies.
Last update: Mgr. Michaela Čuprová (02.02.2020)
Tento kurz se zaměřuje na moderní makroekonomii pro malé otevřené ekonomiky s důrazem na témata spojená s mezinárodními finančními toky. Zabývá se přínosy a riziky liberalizace těchto mezinárodních finančních toků pro malé otevřené ekonomiky. Začíná studiem mezičasového obchodu mezi ekonomikami a determinací rovnovážného salda běžného účtu za předpokladu dokonalých finančních trhů. Následně jsou zkoumány problémy náhlého zamrznutí (sudden stops) mezinárodních finančních toků či dokonce obratu v jejich směru. Jedna z přednášek se věnuje vlivu fiskální politiky na běžný účet platební bilance (tzv. "twin deficit") a možné interpretaci tzv. Felsteinovy-Horiokovy hádanky.
Je diskutován neoklasický model dlouhodobého růstu pro malé otevřené ekonomiky s úvěrovými omezeními. Studována je rovněž dlouhodobá cenová konvergence s využitím Balassova-Samuelsonova modelu. Pozornost je věnována i nedokonalostem finančního systému a jejich roli pro mezinárodní alokaci kapitálu. Druhý blok přednášek začíná studiem měnových krizí, vhodné volby kurzového režimu a teorie optimálních měnových zón. Následně se zaměřuje na cílování inflace v malé otevřené ekonomice, reakci centrální banky na kurzové šoky, použití devizových intervencí v režimu cílování inflace apod. Kurz předpokládá dobrou znalost makroekonomie uzavřené ekonomiky na úrovni magisterského studia.
Aim of the course -
Last update: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (02.02.2024)
This course builds on the advanced macroeconomics, focusing on the issues relevant for small open economies, including the challenges related to international financial markets imperfections. It leads to orientation in the current account determination, long-term growth issues, exchange rate regime choice and stabilisation policy issues for these economies.
Last update: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (02.02.2024)
Tento předmět navazuje na pokročilý kurz makroekonomie a zaměřuje se na otázky specifické pro malé otevřené ekonomiky, včetně role nedokonalostí mezinárodních finančních trhů. Jeho absolvování umožňuje orientovat se v otázkách determinace běžného účtu platební bilance, dlouhodobého růstu, kurzových režimů i stablizační politiky pro tento typ ekonomik.
Literature -
Last update: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (12.02.2021)
Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K.: Foundations of International Macroeconomics. MIT Press, 1996. http://leteckaposta.cz/442168243
• Romer, D., 1996, Advanced Macroeconomics. McGraw-Hill.
• Barro, R., Sala-i-Martin, X, 1995, Economic Growth. McGraw-Hill.
• Balassa, B., 1964, "The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, 72: 584-96.
• Samuelson, P.A., 1964, "Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems," Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (May): 145-154.
• Čihák, M. and Holub, T., 2005, "Price Convergence in EU-accession Countries," Économie Internationale, No. 102, pp. 59-82.
• Holub, T. and Čihák, M., 2003, "Price Convergence: What Can the Balassa-Samuelson Model Tell Us?" Working Paper, no. 8/2003, Prague: Czech National Bank (http://www.cnb.cz/en/pdf/wp8-2003.pdf).
• Obstfeld, M., 1996, "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," European Economic Review, vol. 40 (April), pp. 1037-48.
• Chang, R., Velasco, A., 1998, "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," NBER Working Paper Series, no. 6606 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w6606).
• Krugman, P., 1999, "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, 6, 459-472.
• Linhart, C. M.; Rogoff, K. S. (2008): Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison. NBER Working Paper No. 13761.
• Fischer, S., 2001, "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?" A Lecture Delivered at the Meetings of the American Economic Association, New Orleans, January 6 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2001/010601a.pdf).
• Mundell, R., 1961, "A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," American Economic Review, vol. 51, pp. 657-664.
• McKinnon, R.I., 1963, "Optimum Currency Areas," American Economic Review, vol. 53, pp. 717-725.
• Holub, T., 2003, "Importing Low Inflation via Pegged Exchange Rates, Currency Boards and Monetary Unions," ICEG European Center, Working Paper 21, February 2003.
• Christiano, Lawrence J., Mathias Trabandt, and Karl Walentin. 2007, November. Introducing Financial Frictions and Unemployment into a Small Open Economy Model. Working paper series 214, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
• Stiglitz, J. E., Weiss, A., 1981, "Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information".
• Kyiotaki, N., Moore, J., 1997, "Credit cycles", Journal of Political Economy, vol 105, No. 2, pp. 211 -248.
• Svensson, L. E. O, 2000, "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting". London, CEPR Discussion Paper, 1989 (October).
• Fraga, A., I. Goldfajn, and A. Minella, 2003, "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper Series, 10019 (October).
• Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho (2011): "28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics) (http://www.bepress.com/bejm/vol11/iss1/art22).
• Rose, A.K. (2014): "Surprising similarities: recent monetary regimes of small economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, 49, 5-27.
• Andersena, T.B., Malchow-Møllerb, N., Nordvigc, J. (2015): "Inflation targeting and macroeconomic performance since the Great Recession." Oxford Economic Papers, 67(3), 2015, 598-613.
• Gali J., Monacelli, T., 2005, "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy", The Review of Economic Studies, vol 72, No. 3 (July 2005), pp. 707 - 734.
• Calvo, G. A., and C. M. Reinhart. "Fear of Floating." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper, 7993, 2000.
• Bofinger, P., and T. Wollmershaeuser, 2001, "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order." London, CEPR Discussion Paper, 3064.
• Goldstein, M., 2002, "Managed Floating Plus." Washington, D.C., Institute for International Economics, Policy Analyses in International Economics, 66.
• Edison, H. J.1 1993, "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Literature after 1982." Princeton , Princeton University, Special Papers in International Economics, 18, 1993.
• Sarno, L., and M. P. Taylor, 2001, "Official intervention in the foreign exchange market: Is it effective and, if so, how does it work?" Journal of Economic Literature, 39 (3), 839-868.
• Holub, T., 2004, "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience." CNB IRPN, no. 1/2004.
• Geršl, A., Holub, T. Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience. Contemporary Economic Policy, 2006, vol. 24, no. 4 (October), pp. 475-491, ISSN 1074-3529.
• Disyatat, P., and G. Galati, 2005, "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: evidence from the Czech koruna." Basel, BIS Working Paper, 172, 2005.
• Égert, B. and L. Komárek, 2005, "Foreign Exchange Interventions in the Czech Republic: Did They Matter?" Prague, CNB Working Paper Series.
• Cavusoglu, N., 2010, Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey of Findings, Issues and Policy Implications. Global Economy Journal, vol. 10, iss. 4, article 3.
• Gnabo, J-Y, De Mello, J., Moccero, D., 2010, "Interdependencies between Monetary Policy and Foreign Exchange Interventions under Inflation Targeting: The Case of Brazil and the Czech Republic", International Finance, vol. 13, issue 2, pp 195 - 211.
• Svensson, L.E.O. (2001): "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap." Monetary and Economic Studies 19(S-1), 277-312.
• Franta, M., Holub, T., Král, P., Kubicová, I., Šmídková, K., Vašíček, B. (2014): "The Exchange Rate as an Instrument at Zero Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech Republic." Czech National Bank, Research and Policy Note no. 3/2014, September, (http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/irpn/2014/rpn_03_2014.html).
• Alichi, A., J. Benes, J. Felman, I. Feng, C. Freedman, D. Laxton, E. Tanner, D. Vavra, and H. Wang (2015a): "Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking: Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic," IMF Working Paper No. 15/74.
• Brůha and Tonner (2017): "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-post Assessment of the Czech Experience," CNB Working Paper 4/2017, https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2017_04.pdf
• Baxa and Šestořád (2019): "The Czech Exchange Rate Floor: Depreciation without Inflation?", CNB Working Paper 1/2019, https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2019_01.pdf
Last update: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (12.02.2021)
• Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K.: Foundations of International Macroeconomics. MIT Press, 1996. http://leteckaposta.cz/442168243
• Romer, D., 1996, Advanced Macroeconomics. McGraw-Hill.
• Barro, R., Sala-i-Martin, X, 1995, Economic Growth. McGraw-Hill.
• Balassa, B., 1964, "The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, 72: 584-96.
• Samuelson, P.A., 1964, "Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems," Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (May): 145-154.
• Čihák, M. and Holub, T., 2005, "Price Convergence in EU-accession Countries," Économie Internationale, No. 102, pp. 59-82.
• Holub, T. and Čihák, M., 2003, "Price Convergence: What Can the Balassa-Samuelson Model Tell Us?" Working Paper, no. 8/2003, Prague: Czech National Bank (http://www.cnb.cz/en/pdf/wp8-2003.pdf).
• Obstfeld, M., 1996, "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," European Economic Review, vol. 40 (April), pp. 1037-48.
• Chang, R., Velasco, A., 1998, "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," NBER Working Paper Series, no. 6606 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w6606).
• Krugman, P., 1999, "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, 6, 459-472.
• Linhart, C. M.; Rogoff, K. S. (2008): Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison. NBER Working Paper No. 13761.
• Fischer, S., 2001, "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?" A Lecture Delivered at the Meetings of the American Economic Association, New Orleans, January 6 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2001/010601a.pdf).
• Mundell, R., 1961, "A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," American Economic Review, vol. 51, pp. 657-664.
• McKinnon, R.I., 1963, "Optimum Currency Areas," American Economic Review, vol. 53, pp. 717-725.
• Holub, T., 2003, "Importing Low Inflation via Pegged Exchange Rates, Currency Boards and Monetary Unions," ICEG European Center, Working Paper 21, February 2003.
• Christiano, Lawrence J., Mathias Trabandt, and Karl Walentin. 2007, November. Introducing Financial Frictions and Unemployment into a Small Open Economy Model. Working paper series 214, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
• Stiglitz, J. E., Weiss, A., 1981, "Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information".
• Kyiotaki, N., Moore, J., 1997, "Credit cycles", Journal of Political Economy, vol 105, No. 2, pp. 211 -248.
• Svensson, L. E. O, 2000, "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting". London, CEPR Discussion Paper, 1989 (October).
• Fraga, A., I. Goldfajn, and A. Minella, 2003, "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper Series, 10019 (October).
• Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho (2011): "28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics) (http://www.bepress.com/bejm/vol11/iss1/art22).
• Rose, A.K. (2014): "Surprising similarities: recent monetary regimes of small economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, 49, 5-27.
• Andersena, T.B., Malchow-Møllerb, N., Nordvigc, J. (2015): "Inflation targeting and macroeconomic performance since the Great Recession." Oxford Economic Papers, 67(3), 2015, 598-613.
• Gali J., Monacelli, T., 2005, "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy", The Review of Economic Studies, vol 72, No. 3 (July 2005), pp. 707 - 734.
• Calvo, G. A., and C. M. Reinhart. "Fear of Floating." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper, 7993, 2000.
• Bofinger, P., and T. Wollmershaeuser, 2001, "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order." London, CEPR Discussion Paper, 3064.
• Goldstein, M., 2002, "Managed Floating Plus." Washington, D.C., Institute for International Economics, Policy Analyses in International Economics, 66.
• Edison, H. J.1 1993, "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Literature after 1982." Princeton , Princeton University, Special Papers in International Economics, 18, 1993.
• Sarno, L., and M. P. Taylor, 2001, "Official intervention in the foreign exchange market: Is it effective and, if so, how does it work?" Journal of Economic Literature, 39 (3), 839-868.
• Holub, T., 2004, "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience." CNB IRPN, no. 1/2004.
• Geršl, A., Holub, T. Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience. Contemporary Economic Policy, 2006, vol. 24, no. 4 (October), pp. 475-491, ISSN 1074-3529.
• Disyatat, P., and G. Galati, 2005, "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: evidence from the Czech koruna." Basel, BIS Working Paper, 172, 2005.
• Égert, B. and L. Komárek, 2005, "Foreign Exchange Interventions in the Czech Republic: Did They Matter?" Prague, CNB Working Paper Series.
• Cavusoglu, N., 2010, Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey of Findings, Issues and Policy Implications. Global Economy Journal, vol. 10, iss. 4, article 3.
• Gnabo, J-Y, De Mello, J., Moccero, D., 2010, "Interdependencies between Monetary Policy and Foreign Exchange Interventions under Inflation Targeting: The Case of Brazil and the Czech Republic", International Finance, vol. 13, issue 2, pp 195 - 211.
• Svensson, L.E.O. (2001): "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap." Monetary and Economic Studies 19(S-1), 277-312.
• Franta, M., Holub, T., Král, P., Kubicová, I., Šmídková, K., Vašíček, B. (2014): "The Exchange Rate as an Instrument at Zero Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech Republic." Czech National Bank, Research and Policy Note no. 3/2014, September, (http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/irpn/2014/rpn_03_2014.html).
• Alichi, A., J. Benes, J. Felman, I. Feng, C. Freedman, D. Laxton, E. Tanner, D. Vavra, and H. Wang (2015a): "Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking: Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic," IMF Working Paper No. 15/74.
• Brůha and Tonner (2017): "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-post Assessment of the Czech Experience," CNB Working Paper 4/2017, https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2017_04.pdf
• Baxa and Šestořád (2019): "The Czech Exchange Rate Floor: Depreciation without Inflation?", CNB Working Paper 1/2019, https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2019_01.pdf
Teaching methods -
Last update: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (02.02.2024)
lectures + seminars (first half of the course: mostly calculating exercises; second half: presentation and discussion of papers)
Last update: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (02.02.2024)
Přednáška + seminář (v první polovině kurzu zejména procvičování formou počítání příkladů, ve druhé polovině pak prezentace odborných článků)
Requirements to the exam -
Last update: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (02.02.2024)
The grade will be based on regular written assignments (40%; 10 HWs each for 4 points at most), seminar activity (4%, i.e. 4 points at most) and a final exam (56 %; written on-site exam - 56 points maximum).
Grading follows the standard FSV UK scale.
Last update: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (02.02.2024)
písemné úkoly: 40 % (10 domácích úkolů maximálně po 4 bodech za každý, tj. celkem 40 bodů)
aktivita na seminářích 4 % (maximálně 4 body)
závěrečná zkouška 56 % (tj. maximálně 56 bodů; písemná prezenční zkouška)
Známkování odpovídá standardní stupnici pro FSV UK
Entry requirements -
Last update: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (02.02.2024)
passing intermediate macroeconomics for closed economies
Last update: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. (02.02.2024)
absolvování kurzu makroekonomie uzavřené ekonomiky na středně pokročilé úrovni
