Beyond Russia? Prospects and Constraints of Diversifying Tajik Labor Migration

• Thesis title in Czech: Mimo Rusko? Perspektivy a omezení diverzifikace pracovní migrace z Tádžikistánu
• Thesis title in English: Beyond Russia? Prospects and Constraints of Diversifying Tajik Labor Migration
• Academic year of topic announcement: 2024/2025
• Thesis type: Bachelor's thesis
• Thesis language: angličtina
• Department: Department of Russian and East European Studies (23-KRVS)
• Supervisor: Mgr. Anna Jordanová
• Author: hidden - assigned by the advisor
• Date of registration: 02.09.2025
• Date of assignment: 02.09.2025

References

Ferraro, V. (2004). Dependency theory: An introduction.
Gretsky, S. (2016). Russia and Tajikistan. In Regional power rivalries in the new Eurasia (pp. 231–251). Routledge. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315481616-13/russia-tajikistan-sergei-gretsky
Hess, M. (2020). Russia and Central Asia: Putin's most stable region? Orbis, 64(3), 421–433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2020.05.002
Hout, W. (2023). Dependency theory. In M. Clarke, & X. Zhao (Eds.), Elgar Encyclopedia of Development (pp. 162–166). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800372122.ch35
Kh, R. A. (2020). New directions of labor migration from Tajikistan to the Persian Gulf countries: Development trends and prospects. Вестник университета, (12), 119–125.
Kluczewska, K., & Korneev, O. (2021). Engaging with labour migrants: Emigration policy in Tajikistan. Asian Studies Review, 46(1), 130–149. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357823.2021.1931809
Laruelle, M. (2007, August). Central Asian labor migrants in Russia: The "diasporization" of the Central Asian states? China & Eurasia Forum Quarterly, 5(3).
Lemon, E. (2019, November 14). Dependent on remittances, Tajikistan’s long-term prospects for economic growth and poverty reduction remain dim. Migration Policy Institute. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/dependent-remittances-tajikistans-long-term-prospects-economic-growth
Mahmudov, P. A. (2020). Modern trends of labor migration in the Republic of Tajikistan and their influence in the field of health and social protection. In Тренды мировой миграции 2020: безопасность, здравоохранение и интеграция (pp. 272–281).
Oxford Analytica. (2015). Tajikistan will try to balance Russia and China. Emerald Expert Briefings. https://oxan-db.com
Rakhmonov, A. B. Kh. (2025, June). Adaptation and integration of migrants from Tajikistan in the labor market and in host societies: The case of Germany, Japan, Korea, the United States and the United Kingdom. Bulletin of the Academy, 1,62–75. https://doi.org/10.51409/v.a.2025.03.01.006
Rakhmonov, A. K., & Manshin, R. V. (2019). Trends and strategies of labor emigration from Tajikistan to OECD countries. RUDN Journal of Economics, 27(1), 159–168.
Ryazantsev, S., Khonkhodzhayev, F., Akramov, S., & Ryazantsev, N. (2021). Return migration to Tajikistan: Forms, trends, consequences. Central Asia & the Caucasus, 21(2).
Ryazantsev, S., & Rakhmonov, A. (2020). Labor force recruitment to the OECD and Middle Eastern countries in the Republic of Tajikistan: Trends, mechanisms, consequences. Central Asia & the Caucasus, (4).
Ryazantsev, S. V., Rakhmonov, A. K., & Pismennaya, E. E. (2024). New directions of labor migration from Tajikistan: The case of the UK. Oriental Studies, 17(3), 489–501.
Shlapentokh, D. (2014). Tajikistan, Russia and migrant workers.
Tagliacozzo, S., Pisacane, L., & Kilkey, M. (2023). A system-thinking approach for migration studies: An introduction. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 50(5), 1099–1117. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2023.2279708

Preliminary scope of work in English

Research Background
During the past few decades, Russia has emerged as the primary destination for labor migrants from Tajikistan due to its proximity, relatively higher wages, and historical ties. This migration trend has led to a significant economic dependency of Tajikistan on remittances from its migrant workers, becoming a defining economic and political feature of the region. Such high dependency on remittances - amountign to 30% of GDP - exposes the Tajiksitan’s economy to vulnerabilities in the face of external shocks, such as economic downturns in Russia followed the Russia–Ukraine conflict. These shifts, along with raids, deportations, and stricter entry checks focused on labor migrants, has led more Tajik labour migrants to consider alternative destinations.

Research Problem
There is limited understanding of which alternative destinations for labor migration pose the most significant prospects and are realistic and effective in reducing dependency on a single labor market. Furthermore, the implications of such shifts on Tajikistan’s economic stability and political position are underexplored.

Research Question
How does Tajikistan’s dependence on labor migration shape its political and economic dynamics, and what are the prospects for reducing this dependence through diversification of migration destinations?
Aim of the Research
Based on policy documents, international reports, and expert commentary, this thesis will evaluate which alternative labor migration destinations could realistically reduce Tajikistan’s dependency on Russia, highlighting the main barriers and opportunities

Literature Review
Raúl Prebisch first presented an essential conceptual framework of dependency theory, which emphasised how richer nations continued to increase in wealth at the expense of poor ones. The notion that resources flow from a “periphery” of poor and underdeveloped states to a “core” of wealthy states by offering raw materials and cheap labour explains the lack of development of the third world countries - the results from continuous exploitation, and the peripheral position of affected countries in the world economy [Ferraro, 2004]. The dependency theory interpreted the relationship that emerged during the colonial era as persisting in later periods but through different forms of imperialism [Hout, 2023]. Thus, Tajikistan's over-reliance on labour migration remittances from Russia also demonstrates the classical case of economic dependency, with labour migration being not a voluntary act but a systematic outcome of historic exploitation and control.

Nevertheless, Russia remains the dominant destination for Tajik migrants, with the migration system theory paper by Tagliacozzo, Pisacane and Kilkey (2024) complementing this structural account by showing how interlinkages between origin and destination countries are sustained through historical and socio-cultural ties. Once a dominance is maintained, challenging it and securing new popular destinations for labour migration will require obscuring “mutual influences, feedback mechanisms and transboundary effects between the migration system and other societal systems” (DeWaard, Kim, and Raymer 2012)

An existing research article by Lemon (2019), in a report for the Migration Policy Institute outlines more than 1 million citizens migrate to Russia for work purposes each year, with roughly 40% of households having at least one member working abroad. Dependence on migration has made Tajikistan’s economy vulnerable to external shocks, with the Russian ruble falling dramatically both in 2009 and 2014, halving the size of transferred remittances and contributing to the shrinking growth and stronger stagnation in the face of migration reliance. The research has also found: very little of the total capital accumulated through the migrant force is reinvested back into Tajikistan - enough to sustain only household spendings . As the article by Edward Lemon mentions, “Its National Development Strategy for the Period up to 2030 places emphasis on diversifying emigrant destinations beyond Russia and developing programmes to protect worker rights abroad.” ((Lemon, 2019,n.p)

However, academic articles and studies exploring alternative destinations for Tajik migrants are still very limited. One of the few studies engaging with this question is Ryazantsev, S. V., Rakhmonov, A. K., & Pismennaya, “New directions of labour migration from Tajikistan: The case of the UK,” published in 2024. It points out that the UK has emerged as a new, very promising destination, marking a shift from near-exclusive dependence on Russia. Although the number of labour migrants is small, it's steadily growing, facilitated by seasonal work schemes, skilled migration channels, and educational programmes. The findings of the study revealed several challenges, including higher cost and language barriers associated with labour migration to the United Kingdom. The emphasis has been placed on improved protection of migrant rights and access to higher wages, alongside the potential to lessen Tajikistan’s vulnerability to Russia’s economic and political fluctuations. (Ryazantsev, Rakhmonov, & Pismennaya, 2024)My intended study, in turn, seeks to address the existing gap in the literature by posing a comparative question: which migrant-receiving country presents the most significant prospect, and to what extent are such shifts feasible in reducing dependence on a single labour market?

Methodology and Data Collection
The study will use a qualitative research design, as the research mainly focuses on understanding social, political, and economic processes rather than purely quantifiable metrics. Primary data for analysis will stem from:

Policy Documents:

Russian migration and visa policies
Tajik-Russian bilateral agreements
Official press releases and statements / surveys
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/seasonal-workers-pilot-review/seasonal-workers-survey-results-2024 further research needed


2. Media Analysis:


Reports on deportations, policy shifts, and diplomatic tensions
International coverage of Russia–Tajikistan relations
Case studies of Tajiks working in Korea, Qatar, UK, China (e.g., BBC, Asia Plus)
Announcements about seasonal worker programs and recruitments for Korea, Qatar, UK, China
https://tajikistan.iom.int/news/british-ambassador-expresses-gratitude-tajik-seasonal-workers-uk
https://asiaplustj.info/en/news/world/20250523/uk-tightens-immigration-rules-what-this-means-for-tajik-citizens
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgkmmgle72xo
https://asiaplustj.info/en/news/tajikistan/society/20241101/official-employment-in-south-korea-worker-dispatch-could-begin-in-2025 https://asiaplustj.info/en/node/349995
https://eurasianet.org/tajikistan-migrant-laborers-seeking-alternatives-to-russia
https://www.asiaplustj.info/en/news/tajikistan/society/20250415/tajikistans-labor-ministry-announces-job-opportunities-at-qatar-airport
https://asiaplustj.info/en/news/tajikistan/society/20250113/tajikistans-ministry-of-labor-announces-jobs-in-qatar-for-tajik-citizens




3. Academic and Policy Literature:

Research articles, think tank papers (e.g, IOM, OSCE, ILO, UN)
https://tajikistan.iom.int/news/dependence-family-remittances-central-asia-underlines-need-enhance-migration-pathways-better-worker-protection
https://mfa.tj/en/korea/view/9389/address-on-major-aspects-of-tajikistans-foreign-and-domestic-policies-by-the-president-of-tajikistan-leader-of-the-nation
https://www.icmpd.org/file/download/61555/file/2024-06-28_Policy_Brief_EN_Print.pdf
https://storyteller.iom.int/stories/seasonal-workers-uk-successful-entrepreneurs-tajikistan
https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/656481/support-labor-migration-tajikistan.pdf
https://www.ilo.org/media/332041/download
https://migrationnetwork.un.org/system/files/docs/Tajikistan%20-%20Voluntary%20GCM%20Review%20%28English%29.pdf

4. Semi-Structured Interviews with 2-3 migration NGO staff or policy experts.

Data Analysis
The data collected from policy documents, media reports, academic literature, and expert interviews will undergo thematic analysis to identify and examine recurring patterns and themes. Thematic analysis will be conducted using ReQual, a qualitative data analysis software, to systematically code and categorize the data. The coding process will involve identifying significant segments of text that pertain to key themes and grouping them into broader categories. This organization will enable an assessment of which alternative destinations offer the most promising prospects for reducing Tajikistan's dependence on Russia and what challenges remain in diversifying migration pathways.