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A Neoclassical Realist Analysis of the Russian Annexation of Crimea in 2014
Thesis title in Czech: Neoklasická realistická analýza ruské anexe Krymu v roce 2014
Thesis title in English: A Neoclassical Realist Analysis of the Russian Annexation of Crimea in 2014
Key words: Neoklasický Realismus, Ruská Zahraniční Politika, Ukrajina, Krym, Geopolitika, Vladimira Putina, Konflikt, Anexe.
English key words: Neoclassical Realism, Russian Foreign Policy, Ukraine, Crimea, Geopolitics, Vladimir Putin, Conflict, Annexation.
Academic year of topic announcement: 2017/2018
Thesis type: diploma thesis
Thesis language: angličtina
Department: Department of Political Science (23-KP)
Supervisor: Nuno Morgado Valentim Albino, M.Pol.Sc., Ph.D.
Author: hidden - assigned by the advisor
Date of registration: 11.05.2018
Date of assignment: 14.05.2018
Date and time of defence: 21.06.2019 07:30
Venue of defence: Jinonice - U Kříže 8, Praha 5, J3093, Jinonice - místn. č. 3093
Date of electronic submission:13.05.2019
Date of proceeded defence: 21.06.2019
Opponents: PhDr. Michael Romancov, Ph.D.
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Preliminary scope of work
Neoklasický realismus je nám schopen poskytnout posun v našem vnímáním a zároveň pochopení různých zahraničních politik či pochodů skrze nedávno vytvořený „neoklasický realistický model“. Nicméně již několikrát bylo v historii mezinárodních styků prokázáno, že žádná z teorií nemůže být dokonale přesná a zcela detailně navržená, aby ji bylo možné aplikovat na vícero podobných případů. Nicméně zlepšení jsou patrná, jelikož proměnlivost a nestabilita teorie umožňuje společenským vědám se těmto výkyvům do značné míry přizpůsobovat a zároveň z ní vytěžit podstatné poznatky, na kterých je možné vystavět následující teorie. Tato práce se zabývá problematikou vývoje neoklasického realismu z pohledu rozhodnutí, jež vyvstávají v zahraničních politikách, pokud je na celou věc nahlíženo z úhlů individuálních faktorů a vstupujících proměnných závislé na stupni důležitosti. V současné době zde neexistuje žádný komplexní „manuál“ zahraniční politiky, který by se v reálném čase choval jako „přizpůsobivý model měnící se v čase podle dané situace“, jež by bral v potaz geopolitickou situaci, stát jako samostatnou entitu a představitele státu. Pro případovou situaci byla zvolena anexe Krymu v roce 2014, na které bude demonstrována ruská zahraniční politika spolu s ruským postojem. Analýza a porovnání proměnných vyústila ve tři stěžejní faktory. Nejdůležitějším vlivem uvnitř systemic stimuli bylo příhodné strategické prostředí a také příležitost, která vyvstala na Krymu díky ukrajinské politické a armádní nestabilitě. Intervenující proměnná v tomto případě byly vůdcovské předobrazy a priority, které můžeme považovat za rozhodující faktor, kolem kterých se konsoliduje moc a síla. V tomto případě se moc shromažďovala kolem ruského prezidenta Vladimira Putina, který celou anexi posvětil, aniž by to přineslo četné rozepře uvnitř Ruské federace. Svoji klíčovou roli v odtržení Krymu do značené míry sehrála i kultura, jelikož Rusové představují obrovskou sílu v otázce soudržnosti, bratrství a nacionalismu, který je v ruské společnosti silně zakořeněn. Ruská zahraniční politika je ztělesňována ruskou elitou, jak jsme již byli svědky v případě anexe Krymu v roce 2014.
Preliminary scope of work in English
Neoclassical realism has the ability to advance our understanding of foreign policy responses through the recently designed neoclassical realist model. However as international relations have proven, a theory is not a concrete motionless design. Improvements can be made and the fluidity of theory allows social sciences to adapt and advance. This thesis introduces developments to neoclassical realism by stating that the individual factors and intervening variables hold varying degrees of importance that alter between each foreign policy decision. There is no overarching set of instructions for ‘foreign policy’, rather an adaptable model that takes into consideration the geopolitical arena, the state and the statesman. The case study chosen for this thesis is the Russian foreign policy response to annex Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Analysis and comparisons of the variables resulted in three factors standing out as most significant. The most important influence within the systemic stimuli was the nature of the strategic environment and the window of opportunity that arose in Crimea due to Ukrainian political and military instability. The intervening variable leader images proved to be the decisive factor, as the consolidation of power by Vladimir Putin allowed the annexation to be completed successfully with little dispute within Russia. The intervening variable strategic culture also played a key role in the annexation as the strong sense of cohesion through nationalism took hold throughout Russian society. Russian foreign policy has been hijacked by the ruling elite, as was witnessed in Ukraine during 2014.
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