The ECB, Austerity and the Fiscal Multiplier: A meta-regression analysis of Fiscal Multiplier Estimates in ECB Policy Recommendations
| Thesis title in Czech: | The ECB, Austerity and the Fiscal Multiplier: A meta-regression analysis of Fiscal Multiplier Estimates in ECB Policy Recommendations |
|---|---|
| Thesis title in English: | The ECB, Austerity and the Fiscal Multiplier: A meta-regression analysis of Fiscal Multiplier Estimates in ECB Policy Recommendations |
| Key words: | Fiskální politika, meta-regresní analýza, ECB, restrikce |
| English key words: | Fiscal policy, meta-regression analysis, ECB, austerity |
| Academic year of topic announcement: | 2016/2017 |
| Thesis type: | diploma thesis |
| Thesis language: | angličtina |
| Department: | Department of Political Science (23-KP) |
| Supervisor: | PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D. |
| Author: | hidden - assigned by the advisor |
| Date of registration: | 18.06.2017 |
| Date of assignment: | 18.06.2017 |
| Date and time of defence: | 20.09.2018 00:00 |
| Venue of defence: | Jinonice |
| Date of electronic submission: | 26.07.2018 |
| Date of proceeded defence: | 20.09.2018 |
| Opponents: | prof. PhDr. Tomáš Havránek, Ph.D. |
| URKUND check: | |
| Guidelines |
| #According to the IEPS guidelines for the master theses. |
| References |
| Blyth, Mark. "Austerity as ideology: A reply to my critics." Comparative European Politics 11.6 (2013): 737-751.
Blyth, Mark. "The austerity delusion: why a bad idea won over the west." Foreign Aff. 92 (2013): 41. Frankfurter, George M., and Elton G. McGoun. "Ideology and the theory of financial economics." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 39.2 (1999): 159-177. Helleiner, Eric. "Understanding the 2007–2008 global financial crisis: Lessons for scholars of international political economy." Annual Review of Political Science 14 (2011): 67-87. Henderson, David. Innocence and design: the influence of economic ideas on policy. Blackwell, 1986. Jabko, N. (2013) The political appeal of austerity. Comparative European Politics 11 (6): 705–712. Lee, Michael. "How many lightbulbs does it take to change the financial system? Economic ideas and financial regulation, 1846–2007." The British Journal of Politics and International Relations (2016): 1369148116668078. McNamara, Kathleen R. The currency of ideas: monetary politics in the European Union. Cornell University Press, 1998. Peck, Jamie. "Austere reason, and the eschatology of neoliberalism’s End Times." Comparative European Politics 11.6 (2013): 713-721. Risse, Thomas, et al. "To Euro or not to Euro? The EMU and identity politics in the European Union." European Journal of International Relations 5.2 (1999): 147-187. Truger, Achim. "Austerity in the euro area: the sad state of economic policy in Germany and the EU." European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies (2013). Weber, Max. "The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism." (2009). |
| Preliminary scope of work |
| My thesis seeks to examine whether the policy recommendations of the European Central Bank during the financial crisis of 2008 were biased towards austerity. While it has been attested the EU held firm with fiscal consolidation policy after the academic community and legislators became more receptive to the benefits of fiscal stimulus, it has been much more difficult to establish whether this policy line was ideological in nature. To answer this question, this thesis will focus on a concept closely related to the austerity debate: the fiscal multiplier. Drawing on the work of Sebastian Gechert, which concludes that the estimation of the fiscal multiplier is influenced by the method used to estimate it, this thesis aims to examine whether the ECB was methodologically biased towards lower fiscal multipliers. This will be accomplished by performing a meta-regression analysis on all substantial publications estimating multipliers published between 1992 and 2012 and examining whether there exists a significant difference in reported multipliers and methodology used between the ECB and studies published elsewhere.
Working hypotheses: 1. Hypothesis #1: The policy response from the European Union to the crisis was informed by low estimations of the fiscal multiplier 2. Hypothesis #2: The method used to estimate the fiscal multiplier has an effect on the estimation 3. Hypothesis #3: The ECB had an epistemological bias towards multiplier estimation methods that yielded lower multiplier estimations Methodology: The primary methodology used in this thesis is meta-regression analysis. The analysis will be conducted based on a dataset containing all major publications providing multiple estimations published between 1992 and 2012. The dataset accounts for a wide range of variables, particularly model class used in the estimations and an additional variable to indicate publication origin (at the ECB or elsewhere). Outline: Introduction Literature Review • The Political Power of Economic Ideas o Epistemic Communities o Measuring the Impact of Ideas o Conclusion • Austerity o The Expansionary Fiscal Consolidation Hypothesis o European Response to the Crisis o Conclusion • The Fiscal Multiplier o The Fiscal Multiplier Debate at the ECB o Measuring the Fiscal Multiplier o Conclusion Methodology • Meta Regression Analysis • Data and Variables • Descriptive Statistics Results Conclusions References/Bibliography Appendix |
| Preliminary scope of work in English |
| My thesis seeks to examine whether the policy recommendations of the European Central Bank during the financial crisis of 2008 were biased towards austerity. While it has been attested the EU held firm with fiscal consolidation policy after the academic community and legislators became more receptive to the benefits of fiscal stimulus, it has been much more difficult to establish whether this policy line was ideological in nature. To answer this question, this thesis will focus on a concept closely related to the austerity debate: the fiscal multiplier. Drawing on the work of Sebastian Gechert, which concludes that the estimation of the fiscal multiplier is influenced by the method used to estimate it, this thesis aims to examine whether the ECB was methodologically biased towards lower fiscal multipliers. This will be accomplished by performing a meta-regression analysis on all substantial publications estimating multipliers published between 1992 and 2012 and examining whether there exists a significant difference in reported multipliers and methodology used between the ECB and studies published elsewhere.
Working hypotheses: 1. Hypothesis #1: The policy response from the European Union to the crisis was informed by low estimations of the fiscal multiplier 2. Hypothesis #2: The method used to estimate the fiscal multiplier has an effect on the estimation 3. Hypothesis #3: The ECB had an epistemological bias towards multiplier estimation methods that yielded lower multiplier estimations Methodology: The primary methodology used in this thesis is meta-regression analysis. The analysis will be conducted based on a dataset containing all major publications providing multiple estimations published between 1992 and 2012. The dataset accounts for a wide range of variables, particularly model class used in the estimations and an additional variable to indicate publication origin (at the ECB or elsewhere). Outline: Introduction Literature Review • The Political Power of Economic Ideas o Epistemic Communities o Measuring the Impact of Ideas o Conclusion • Austerity o The Expansionary Fiscal Consolidation Hypothesis o European Response to the Crisis o Conclusion • The Fiscal Multiplier o The Fiscal Multiplier Debate at the ECB o Measuring the Fiscal Multiplier o Conclusion Methodology • Meta Regression Analysis • Data and Variables • Descriptive Statistics Results Conclusions References/Bibliography Appendix |