Reconstruction of the post-war population development in Kosovo

• Thesis title in Czech: Rekonstrukce poválečného vývoje obyvatelstva v Kosovu
• Thesis title in English: Reconstruction of the post-war population development in Kosovo
• Key words: Kosovo, populační vývoj v minulosti, rekonstrukce, demografická statistika, populační odhady
• English key words: Kosovo, past population development, reconstruction, demographic statistics, population estimates
• Academic year of topic announcement: 2026/2027
• Thesis type: dissertation
• Thesis language: angličtina
• Department: Department of Demography and Geodemography (31-360)
• Supervisor: RNDr. Tomáš Kučera, CSc.
• Study form: combined
• Advisors: Iryna Kurylo

Guidelines

MPGS0120 Obecné kolokvium-General Colloquium (DEM)
MD360E01 Demographic Analysis I
MD360P94 Population Projections and Forecasts

References

Bilsborrow, R. E., Hugo, G., Oberai, A., and Zlotnik, H. (1997). International Migration Statistics: Guidelines for Improving Data Collection Systems. Geneva: International Labour Office.
Brass, W. and Coale, A.J. (1968) ‘Methods of analysis and estimation’, in The demography of tropical Africa, pp. 88–150. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Calot, G., and Sardon, J.-P. (2004). Methodology for the calculation of Eurostat's demographic indicators. Population and social conditions 3/2003/F/n° 26. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
Conference of European Statisticians (2015). Handbook on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems: Developing Information, Education and Communication.
Goodkind, D., and West, L. (2001). The North Korean Famine and Its Demographic Impact. Population and Development Review, 27(2), 219-238. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00219.x
Jensen, E.B. (2013). A Review of Methods for Estimating Emigration. Working Paper No. 101. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.
Keyfitz, N. (1984). How Do We Know the Facts of Demography? Population and Development Review, 10(2), 171–192.
Kosovo Agency of Statistics. (2008). Demographic Changes of the Kosovo Population 1948-2006. Available at: https://ask.rks-gov.net/media/1835/demographic-changes-of-the-kosovo-population-1948-2006.pdf
Kosovo Agency of Statistics: publications and databases related to current population statistics and 2011 and 2024 Kosovo Population Census.
Shryock, H. S., Siegel, J. S., and Larmon, E. A. (1993). The Methods and Materials of Demography. Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Siegel, J. S., and Swanson, D. A. (2004). The methods and materials of demography (2nd ed.). Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
United Nations (1967). Manual IV: Methods of Estimating Basic Demographic Measures from Incomplete Data. Population Studies, No. 42.
United Nations (1983). Manual X: Indirect techniques for demographic estimation. Population Studies, No. 81. New York, NY: Department of International Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. (2022). Use of New Data Sources for Measuring International Migration. Geneva: United Nations.
Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S. J., and Gerland, P. (2013). Reconstructing Past Populations with Uncertainty from Fragmentary Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108(501), 96-110.
Bilsborrow, R.E., Hugo, G., Oberai, A.S. and Zlotnik, H. (1997) International migration statistics: guidelines for improving data collection systems. Geneva: International Labour Office.
Brass, W. and Coale, A.J. (1968) ‘Methods of analysis and estimation’, in Brass, W., Coale, A.J., Demeny, P., Heisel, D.F., Lorimer, F., Romaniuk, A. and van de Walle, E. The demography of tropical Africa. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, pp. 88–150.
Calot, G. and Sardon, J.-P. (2004) Methodology for the calculation of Eurostat’s demographic indicators. Population and social conditions, 3/2003/F/No. 26. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
Goodkind, D. and West, L. (2001) ‘The North Korean famine and its demographic impact’, Population and Development Review, 27(2), pp. 219–238. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00219.x.
Jensen, E.B. (2013) A review of methods for estimating emigration. Working Paper No. 101. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Available at: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2013/demo/POP-twps0099.pdf (Accessed: 15 January 2026).
Keyfitz, N. (1975) ‘How do we know the facts of demography?’, Population and Development Review, 1(2), pp. 267–288. doi:10.2307/1972224.
Kosovo Agency of Statistics (2008) Demographic changes of the Kosovo population 1948–2006. Pristina: Kosovo Agency of Statistics. Available at: https://ask.rks-gov.net/media/1835/demographic-changes-of-the-kosovo-population-1948-2006.pdf (Accessed: 15 January 2026).
Kosovo Agency of Statistics (n.d.). Population statistics and census publications (including 2011 and 2024 Census).
Shryock, H.S., Siegel, J.S. and Associates (1976) The methods and materials of demography. New York: Academic Press.
Siegel, J.S. and Swanson, D.A. (eds.) (2004) The methods and materials of demography. 2nd edn. San Diego, CA: Elsevier Academic Press.
United Nations (1967) Manual IV: methods of estimating basic demographic measures from incomplete data. Population Studies No. 42. New York: United Nations. Available at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/manual-iv-methods-estimating-basic-demographic-measures-incomplete-data (Accessed: 15 January 2026).
United Nations (1983) Manual X: indirect techniques for demographic estimation. Population Studies No. 81. New York: United Nations. Available at: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/mortality/Manual_X.pdf (Accessed: 15 January 2026).
United Nations: Handbooks on civil registration and vital statistics systems: developing information, education and communication. New York: United Nations.
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (2022) Use of new data sources for measuring international migration. Geneva: United Nations. Available at: https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/06_Report%20on%20New%20Data%20Sources%20for%20Migration_long%20version%20sent%20for%20consultation.pdf (Accessed: 15 January 2026).
Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2013) ‘Reconstructing past populations with uncertainty from fragmentary data’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108(501), pp. 96–110. doi:10.1080/01621459.2012.737729.

Preliminary scope of work

Cílem této disertační práce je rekonstruovat chybějící demografické údaje a poskytnout komplexní popis vývoje obyvatelstva na současném území Republiky Kosovo v poválečném období. Práce se zaměří na adaptaci nebo vývoj a aplikaci relevantních metod pro odhadování neúplných nebo chybějících informací o úmrtích, narozeních, migraci a velikosti populace a na rekonstrukci věkové a pohlavní struktury kosovské populace. S využitím všech dostupných zdrojů dat bude disertační práce hodnotit kvalitu dat a odhadů a odvodí konzistentní řadu demografických ukazatelů, které umožní podstatně přesnější analýzu minulých populačních trendů.
Klíčová výzkumná otázka: Jak přesně lze rekonstruovat chybějící demografická data (počty obyvatel a událostí podle pohlaví a věku) pro poválečné Kosovo pomocí přizpůsobených nebo nově vyvinutých metod odhadů a jak tyto rekonstrukce přispívají ke zvýšení kvality analýzy vývoje populace v Kosovu na národní úrovni?
Předběžný pracovní postup:
1. Shromáždit a kriticky zhodnotit relevantní literaturu o rekonstrukci demografických dat, technikách nepřímého odhadu a ověřování historických údajů.
2. Identifikovat a klasifikovat potenciální zdroje dat relevantní pro poválečné Kosovo a posoudit jejich kvalitu.
3. Identifikovat mezery, nesrovnalosti a rozpory a navrhnout způsoby jejich řešení.
4. Vyvinout, přizpůsobit nebo kombinovat specifické demografické a statistické metody pro odhad chybějících údajů o stavech a pohybech (velikost populace, rozložení podle věku a pohlaví, narození, úmrtí, migrace).
5. Vytvořit roční odhady demografických stavů a toků pro dané období.
6. Vyhodnotit vnitřní konzistenci a kvalitu odhadů pomocí zavedených mezinárodních standardů.
7. Provést komplexní analýzu rekonstruovaných demografických trendů a porovnat odhady různých metodických variant.
8. Vytvořit strukturovanou databázi rekonstruovaných demografických odhadů.
9. Shrnout hlavní trendy v poválečném vývoji populace Kosova.

Preliminary scope of work in English

This dissertation aims to reconstruct missing demographic data and provide a comprehensive description of the population development in the current territory of the Republic of Kosovo during the post-war period. The work will focus on adapting or developing and applying relevant methods to estimate incomplete or missing information on deaths, births, migration, and population size, and to reconstruct the age and sex structure of Kosovo´s population. Using all available data sources, the dissertation will evaluate the quality of the data and estimates and derive a consistent series of demographic indicators that enable significantly more accurate analysis of past population trends.
Key research question: How accurately can missing demographic stocks and flows for post-war Kosovo be reconstructed using adapted or newly developed estimation methods, and how do these reconstructions improve the analysis of population development in Kosovo at the national level?
Preliminary workflow:
1. Collect and critically review relevant literature on the reconstruction of demographic data, indirect estimation techniques, and historical data validation.
2. Identify and classify potential data sources relevant to post-war Kosovo and assess their quality.
3. Identify gaps, inconsistencies, and discrepancies, and propose their resolution.
4. Develop, adapt, or combine specific demographic and statistical methods for estimating missing stock and flow data (population size, age-sex distributions, births, deaths, migration).
5. Produce annual estimates of demographic stocks and flows for the given period.
6. Evaluate the internal consistency and quality of the estimates using established international standards.
7. Conduct a comprehensive analysis of reconstructed demographic trends, comparing estimates across different methodological variants.
8. Develop a structured database of reconstructed demographic estimates.
9. Summarise major trends in Kosovo’s post-war population development.