Vývoj a benchmarking extrapolačních metod pro potřeby letectví

• Thesis title in Czech: Vývoj a benchmarking extrapolačních metod pro potřeby letectví
• Thesis title in English: Development and benchmarking of nowcasting methods for aviation
• Key words: python, aviation, nowcasting, benchmarking, radar, verification
• English key words: python, aviation, nowcasting, benchmarking, radar, verification
• Academic year of topic announcement: 2022/2023
• Thesis type: Bachelor's thesis
• Department: Department of Atmospheric Physics (32-KFA)
• Supervisor: doc. Mgr. Peter Huszár, Ph.D.
• Advisors: Mgr. Aleš Kuchař, Ph.D.

Guidelines

1) Study the existing methods for tracking storm intensity and development computed from available weather data sources.
2) Propose the mathematical solution to such problem.
3) Design and implement algorithm(s) the solution using the NetCDF library in Python and other available libraries needed for such computation.
4) Integrate the algorithmic solution to an existing weather processing pipeline providing connection to visualization tools for the pilots.
5) Scale-up the solution to provide the required scale in volume and speed of computation needed by the real deployment (order of minutes for one computation every 15 minutes)
6) Experimentally verify that the method works good enough for practical usage by the pilots.

References

[1] Ayzel, G., Heistermann, M., & Winterrath, T. (2018). Optical flow models as an open benchmark for radar-based precipitation nowcasting (rainymotion v0.1). Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, (September), 1–23. http://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-166
[2] http://www.nwcsaf.org/AemetWebContents/ReferenceSystem/GEO/HTMLContributions/RDT/Prod_RDT.htm
[3] Bližňák, V., Sokol, Z., & Zacharov, P. (2017). Nowcasting of deep convective clouds and heavy precipitation: Comparison study between NWP model simulation and extrapolation. Atmospheric Research, 184, 24–34. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.003
[4] Zinner, T., Mannstein, H., & Tafferner, A. (2008). Cb-TRAM: Tracking and monitoring severe convection from onset over rapid development to mature phase using multi-channel Meteosat-8 SEVIRI data. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 101(3–4), 191–210. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-008-0290-y

Preliminary scope of work in English

Storm tracking, including information about storm intensity development, has become an essential technique for the short-term forecast in various application contexts, i.e. nowcasting [1]. However, numerous nowcasting techniques available required to be benchmarked for aviation purposes. The proposed nowcasting methods may be also benchmarked against an elementary solution using the wind field from a numerical prediction model. Another way is to use existing weather products as Rapid Developed Thunderstorms (RDT) [2]. The computation must be fast enough to be usable for the pilots in real-time, technically limiting the computation to order of minutes. The volume of interest is the area of Europe from the ground to approximately 45000ft (~13km) height for 5 hours window to the future.