ECB's Oral Communication and Future Monetary Policy
| Thesis title in Czech: | Ústní komunikace ECB a budoucí měnová politika |
|---|---|
| Thesis title in English: | ECB's Oral Communication and Future Monetary Policy |
| Key words: | ECB, monetární politika, komunikace |
| English key words: | ECB, monetary policy, communication |
| Academic year of topic announcement: | 2016/2017 |
| Thesis type: | diploma thesis |
| Thesis language: | angličtina |
| Department: | Institute of Economic Studies (23-IES) |
| Supervisor: | prof. Roman Horváth, Ph.D. |
| Author: | hidden - assigned by the advisor |
| Date of registration: | 09.11.2016 |
| Date of assignment: | 09.11.2016 |
| Date and time of defence: | 21.06.2017 08:30 |
| Venue of defence: | Opletalova - Opletalova 26, O105, Opletalova - místn. č. 105 |
| Date of electronic submission: | 19.05.2017 |
| Date of proceeded defence: | 21.06.2017 |
| Opponents: | doc. Ing. Ondřej Schneider, M.Phil., Ph.D. |
| URKUND check: | |
| Preliminary scope of work in English |
| Since monetary policy has become more transparent and the changes are more predictable the future actions of the central bank are easier to estimate. The thesis is going to uncover how the future monetary policy of the ECB can be predicted by the oral communication of the ECB representatives. The influence of several properties of the communication that are likely to influence the magnitude of the change in the monetary policy are also going to be analysed.
The fist property is explained in the paper of Horváth et al. (2012). It defines the so called skew indicator as the “the difference between the average policy rate voted for by the individual board members and the policy rate that is the outcome of the majority vote”. The importance of the communication of the ECB is also going to be analyzed. The content of the oral communication, whether it is conventional or unconventional, might also be influential. Another important aspect is the timing of the communication: the closer the communication of the monetary policy meeting is to the “D“ day (the day in the period when the ECB execute the changes in monetary policy) the likely it is to inform about the change. |