The Rise of Extreme Right: Evidence from the Slovak Parliamentary Election

• Thesis title in Czech: Nárůst krajní pravice: Volby do Národní rady Slovenské republiky
• Thesis title in English: The Rise of Extreme Right: Evidence from the Slovak Parliamentary Election
• Key words: radikálna pravica, priestorová analýza, kompozičné charakteristiky, kontextuálne charakteristiky, štruktúra hlasovania, metóda najmenších štvorcov, model s priestorovými chybami, Slovensko
• English key words: radical right, spatial analysis, compositional characteristics, contextual characteristics, voting pattern, ordinary least squares method, spatial error model, Slovakia
• Academic year of topic announcement: 2016/2017
• Thesis type: Bachelor's thesis
• Thesis language: angličtina
• Department: Institute of Economic Studies (23-IES)
• Supervisor: PhDr. Lenka Šťastná, Ph.D.
• Author: hidden - assigned by the advisor
• Date of registration: 09.11.2016
• Date of assignment: 09.11.2016
• Date and time of defence: 13.06.2017 09:00
• Venue of defence: Opletalova - Opletalova 26, O105, Opletalova - místn. č. 105
• Date of electronic submission: 18.05.2017
• Date of proceeded defence: 13.06.2017
• Opponents: Mgr. Kristýna Čechová

References

1 Paul Hainsworth. The Extreme Right in Western Europe. Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2008.

2 Robert Haining. Spatial Data Analysis: Theory and Practice. Cambridge University Press, 2004.

3 A. Stewart Fotheringham, Chris Brunsdon, Martin Charlton. Geographically Weighted Regression: The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2002.

4 Roger S. Bivand, Edzer J. Pebesma, Virgilio Gómez-Rubio. Applied Spatial Data Analysis with R. Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 2008.

5 Michal Pink a kol. Volební mapy České a Slovenské republiky po roce 1993: Vzorce, trendy, proměny. Centrum pro studium demokracie a kultury, 1. vyd., 261 s., 2012.

6 Alena Kluknavská. The far right parties in 2012 Slovak parliamentary elections. Rexter – Časopis pro výskum radikalismu, extremismu a terorismu, 01/2012.

7 Cas Mudde. The War of Words: Defining the Extreme Right Party Family. Manchester University Press, 2000.

8 Ford and Goodwin. Angry White Men: Individual and Contextual Predictors of Support for the British National Party. Political studies, VOL 58, 1-25a, 2010.

9 Markus Brückner and H. P. Grüner. Economic Growth and the Rise of Political Extremism: Theory and Evidence (March 2010). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7723.

10 Arzheimer and Carter. Political opportunity structures and right-wing extremist party success. European Journal of Political Research, 45: 419–443, 2006.

11 Kostelecký. Vzestup nebo pád politického regionalismu? Změny na politické mapě v letech 1992 až 1998 - srovnání České a Slovenské republiky. Sociologické texty, 2001, SP 01:9, 96 s.

Preliminary scope of work in English

Topic characteristics. In my bachelor thesis, I would like to analyze voting patterns of the extreme right reflected in the results of the Slovak parliamentary election in 2016 (the extreme right represented by the party Kotleba – People's Party Our Slovakia gained around 8% of the vote) and explain them mainly via the sociodemographic and socioeconomic structure of municipalities. Using an aggregate statistical approach, I will concentrate on the structural characteristics of almost 3000 municipalities across Slovakia.

Motivation and contribution. Paul Hainsworth (2008) argues that "contemporary problems and the solutions offered to ever more difficult questions such as immigration, unemployment and law and order have enabled extremist, nationalist and populist movements to emerge". The rise of right-wing extremism is extensively analysed in the countries of Western Europe by researchers such as Ford and Goodwin (2010), Brückner and Grüner (2010) or Arzheimer and Carter (2006) but it seems to me that less attention is dedicated to explanation of its rise in the countries like Slovakia. At the same time, the knowledge of characteristics of extreme right voters may help the policy makers to target better their policies in order to prevent further increase of radical ideas in the society. Based on previous research in this field and applying its methodology, tools and techniques, I would like to uncover the determinants of support for the right-wing extremism in Slovakia and assess the extent to which it differs from that in Western Europe.


Data. The data which I will use in my thesis can be divided into three categories: sociodemographic, economic and cultural. All the data is municipality-level data. The dependent variable will be represented by the election results of the party Kotleba – People's Party Our Slovakia in the Slovak parliamentary election in 2016. As the explanatory variables for the support of right-wing extremists from the sociodemographic perspective, I will use determinants like a percentage share of elderly population and Roma people, density of population, a percentage share of highly educated persons and people working in the services. From the category of economic variables, I will look at the share of unemployed people and I will also work with the level of municipal debts. Based on the research of Brückner and Grüner (2010), who argue that economic growth may explain the rise of political extremism, I will measure economic conditions estimated by the change in unemployment level and by the change in the number of housing units in municipalities. Unlike all the mentioned research, based on the conclusion of Kostelecký (2001), who argues that the explanation of geographically varying electoral support across Slovakia arises from "deeper social roots", I will try to explain the support of extreme right by a more hidden cultural variable. The unique electronic database of historical parliamentary elections results in all Slovak municipalities shall serve this purpose of uncovering potential cultural aspects behind the electoral success of the extreme right based on the results of a right-wing party arguably representing an ideological base of the Kotleba – People's Party Our Slovakia in the 1929 and 1935 elections.


Methodology. Regarding the empirical strategy, I would like to build an econometric model providing cross-sectional analysis of the voting pattern of the party Kotleba – People's Party Our Slovakia. First, I will estimate the election results of the party using ordinary least squares (OLS) method. Then I will compare this baseline model with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model whose purpose is to deal with spatial heterogeneity which assumes that estimates may vary across space. This approach may be suitable as there is a possibility of different characteristics of right-wing voters across a country – as an example, this may be the case for typically rural areas of Slovakia compared with the more urban ones. I would like to find out whether this method has the potential to bring any significant improvement in the performance of the model and whether GWR can show a manner in which relations differ across Slovakia. Taking into account the spatial interdependence of the municipalities, I would also like to use a spatial error model specifying spatial effects using a given weighting scheme. In the process of choosing the explanatory variables in the model, the chosen aggregate statistical approach will assume that individuals belonging to the same social group behave essentially the same as they share similar status, interests and values.


Outline

1. Introduction

2. Literature review

3. Features of right-wing extremism and its presence in the Slovak Republic

4. Methodology
a) ordinary least squares
b) spatial error model
c) geographically weighted regression

5. Data
a) election results
b) determinants
c) weighting schemes

6. Results

7. Conclusion