Comparison of the inflation prediction approaches: Monetary growth vs. Output gap analysis

• Thesis title in Czech: x
• Thesis title in English: Comparison of the inflation prediction approaches: Monetary growth vs. Output gap analysis
• Key words: inflácia, Bayesovské priemerovanie modelov, medzera výstupu, ponuka peňazí, modelová neistota
• English key words: inflation, Bayesian Model Averaging, output gap, money supply, model uncertainty
• Academic year of topic announcement: 2013/2014
• Type of assignment: rigorosum thesis
• Thesis language: angličtina
• Department: Institute of Economic Studies (23-IES)
• Supervisor: prof. Roman Horváth, Ph.D.
• Author: hidden - assigned by the advisor
• Date of registration: 05.09.2014
• Date of assignment: 05.09.2014
• Date and time of defence: 29.10.2014 00:00
• Venue of defence: IES FSV UK, Opletalova 26
• Date of electronic submission: 05.09.2014
• Date of proceeded defence: 29.10.2014
• Reviewers: PhDr. Michal Hlaváček, Ph.D.

Preliminary scope of work in English

The thesis contributes to empirical studies of inflation determinants. The ultimate aim of this thesis is to show that the money supply has according to BMA analysis greater explaining power of inflation than currently used output gap.
Our main hypothesis is that monetary aggregates provide additional information useful in forecasting inflation.
The rigorous thesis extents the diploma thesis with the discussion about the endogeneity of the presented inflation model. Further on, we will discuss the usage of HP filter and compare it with other methods of filtering the data and how it will influence the model outcomes.