Political Cycles and Their Impact on Macroeconomic Indicators in the Central Europe
| Thesis title in Czech: | Politické cykly a jejich vliv na makroekonomické ukazatele ve Střední Evropě |
|---|---|
| Thesis title in English: | Political Cycles and Their Impact on Macroeconomic Indicators in the Central Europe |
| English key words: | macroeconomics, political business cycle, election period, Central Europe, partisian theories |
| Academic year of topic announcement: | 2021/2022 |
| Thesis type: | Bachelor's thesis |
| Thesis language: | angličtina |
| Department: | Institute of Economic Studies (23-IES) |
| Supervisor: | PhDr. Michal Hlaváček, Ph.D. |
| Author: | hidden - assigned by the advisor |
| Date of registration: | 30.08.2022 |
| Date of assignment: | 30.08.2022 |
| Date and time of defence: | 11.09.2023 09:00 |
| Venue of defence: | Opletalova, O105, místnost č. 105 |
| Date of electronic submission: | 01.08.2023 |
| Date of proceeded defence: | 11.09.2023 |
| Opponents: | Nino Buliskeria, Ph.D. |
| References |
| Brechler, J., & Geršl, A. (2010). Political Legislation Cycle in the Czech Republic [Bachelor‘s thesis, Charles University in Prague].
Drazen, A. (2001). The Political Business Cycle After 25 Years. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15 Hallerberg, M., Vinhas de Souza, L., & Clark, W.R. (2000). The Political Business Cycles of EU Accession Countries. European Union Politics. Lami, E., & Imami, D. (2013). Searching for Political Fiscal Cycles in Hungary. Nordhaus, W.D. (1975). The Political Business Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies 42, no. 2 Nordhaus, W.D., Alesina, A., & Schultze, C.L.(1989). Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1989, no. 2 Plaček, M., Půček, M., Ochrana, F., Křápek, M., & Matějová, L. (2016). Political Business Cycle in the Czech Republic: Case of Municipalities. Prague Economic Papers Potrafke, N.(2009). Political Cycles and Economic Performance in OECD Countries: Empirical Evidence from 1951-2006. University of Konstanz. Germany. Praščević, A. (2020). The Applicability of Political Business Cycle Theories in Transition Economies. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, Vol. 23, Special Conference Issue, pp. 73/90. Štiková, R.(2008). Models of Political Cycles: The Czech Experience. Prague Economic Papers World Bank. The World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/ |
| Preliminary scope of work in English |
| Research question and motivation
Inflation, unemployment, GDP - these macroeconomic indicators are not only important for the economics but also for politics. Regardless of whether the government is responsible for their development, these indicators play an important role in re-election of the current government. When inflation or unemployment are high, opposition blames government, which is saying it is not their fault. In the opposite case, when inflation and unemployment are low, the government tries to get all the credit for it. Although, this perception is very simplified, it can be partially true. The goal of the thesis is to examine the link between the change in the macroeconomic indicators and the changes in the political environment. This examination could be helpful in answering following questions. Does it make sense to blame government for the high inflation? Does the macroeconomic indicators change before and after election period? Does an ideology of the government play a significant role in the macroeconomics indicators? Contribution The thesis aims to apply the theory of the Political Cycles into the Central European region. It will mainly focus on countries from the Visegrad Group. It should result in coming up with empirical evidence of connections between politics and macroeconomics in the region. This evidence could be used in public debates for or against the simplified argumentation that government is (not) responsible for the macroeconomic development in the country. Moreover, it could be helpful for better understanding the macroeconomics and its impact on politics by public. There has been already written several academic papers on this topic (Štiková 2008, Praščević 2020, Lami 2013 etc.). The difference of this thesis will be the focus on the region and application of current data in models. Methodology Firstly, I will analyse the data from the World Bank about the macroeconomic indicators in the Central European countries. Secondly, I will investigate the election cycles in these countries. I also plan to examine the ideology of the governing political parties. Lastly, I will try to analyse connections between these two groups of data. Considering several countries instead of the single country could be helpful in the distinction between only a macroeconomic trend in the region and the relationship of our examined variables. Outline Abstract Introduction a. why is my topic interesting b. brief overview of existing knowledge c. how I add to existing research d. main results and what they mean e. how is the thesis organised Literature review and hypotheses a. literature on the Political Cycles b. what hypotheses will be tested c. motivation why is it reasonable to test them Methodology a. relevant description of the data b. why I use the independent and the dependent variables I use, how they were obtained c. how I perform tests Results a. rejecting / not rejecting hypotheses b. my interpretation of the results Conclusion a. broader interpretation of results b. implications for practice c. topics for further research |