Localized seasonal to decadal climate prediction - downscaling in high resolution
| Thesis title in Czech: | Lokalizace sezónní až dekádální předpovědi klimatu - downscaling ve vysokém rozlišení |
|---|---|
| Thesis title in English: | Localized seasonal to decadal climate prediction - downscaling in high resolution |
| Key words: | "seamless" předpověď, sezónní až dekádální předpověď, downscaling, regionální klimatické modely, "convection permitting" RCMs |
| English key words: | seamless prediction, seasonal to decadal prediction, downscaling, regional climate models, convection permitting RCMs |
| Academic year of topic announcement: | 2020/2021 |
| Thesis type: | dissertation |
| Thesis language: | angličtina |
| Department: | Department of Atmospheric Physics (32-KFA) |
| Supervisor: | doc. RNDr. Tomáš Halenka, CSc. |
| Author: | hidden - assigned and confirmed by the Study Dept. |
| Date of registration: | 02.10.2020 |
| Date of assignment: | 02.10.2020 |
| Confirmed by Study dept. on: | 02.10.2020 |
| Guidelines |
| Seamless climate prediction in temporal framework of season to decade becomes to be understood as important issue for direct use in decision making for this time span. Climate change scenarios cannot provide really useful information for such a near future period and for common NWP models this is far out of their predictability limits. However, first attempts with "initialized" climate simulations reveal that there might be some predictability potential in term of seasonal to interannual variability in such simulations. For local use, the downscaling of such GCM simulations is necessary. While the different approaches can be used, the trend towards high resolution needs specific orographic and land surface processes to be involved correctly in such a resolution, which leads to use of RCMs, especially in convection permitting mode. The aim of the project is to analyze the opportunities for such S2D climate prediction in local scale and to downscale such results with emphasis on the use of convection permitting RCMs, validating the hindcast experiments to provide the performance assessment. |
| References |
| A. Gettelman, R. B. Rood (2016): Demystifying Climate Models: A Users Guide to Earth System Models. SpringerOnline
Kushnir Y. et al., 2019: Near-term climate prediction, Nat. Clim. Change, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7 Huszar, P., Halenka, T., Belda, M., Zak, M., Sindelarova, K., and Miksovsky, J., (2014): Regional climate model assessment of the urban land-surface forcing over central Europe. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12393-12413. Prein, A. F., W. Langhans, G. Fosser, A. Ferrone, N. Ban, K. Goergen, M. Keller, M. Tölle, O. Gutjahr, F. Feser, et al. (2015): A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361. doi:10.1002/2014RG000475. Ban, N., J. Schmidli, and C. Schär (2014): Evaluation of the convection-resolving regional climate modeling approach in decade-long simulations, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 7889–7907, doi:10.1002/2014JD021478. and further following the supervisor's instructions. |
| Preliminary scope of work |
| Lokalizace sezónní až dekádální předpovědi klimatu - downscaling ve vysokém rozlišení |
| Preliminary scope of work in English |
| Localized seasonal to decadal climate prediction - downscaling in high resolution |