Jinonice - U Kříže 8, Praha 5, J3014, Jinonice - místn. č. 3014
Date of electronic submission:
04.04.2019
Date of proceeded defence:
18.06.2019
Opponents:
doc. Martin Riegl, Ph.D.
URKUND check:
Preliminary scope of work in English
In January 2018, Ecuador woke up to a series of attacks and kidnappings perpetrated by a group of dissidents of the Colombian Peace Accords that are said to be the operative arm of international drug cartels. Governmental reactions have been disappointing and unassertive, increasing the feeling of failure to keep the population safe. Based on “what are possible scenarios and strategies for Ecuadorian government in the context of increasing violence of narco-trafficking?” the present thesis will put in place a creative thinking scenario methodology to provide plausible answers to this central question with inputs from bibliographical research and interviews to experts in the subject. After describing the context of drug trafficking and terrorism as well as the Ecuadorian situation and policy approaches, four scenarios are presented. The variables to determine the scenarios are: (1) the level of convergence between narco-trafficking and rebel groups and (2) how militarized or non-militarized policies are applied by the government in the affected territories. Finally, a strategy aiming towards a non-militarized policy in the context of low interaction of rebel groups and drug trafficking is presented, in addition to actions to prevent the least desired scenarios.
- assigned by the advisor