Potential for Agricultural Trade between China and Central and Eastern Europe within the 16+1 Framework
| Thesis title in Czech: | Potential for Agricultural Trade between China and Central and Eastern Europe within the 16+1 Framework |
|---|---|
| Thesis title in English: | Potential for Agricultural Trade between China and Central and Eastern Europe within the 16+1 Framework |
| Key words: | Gravity Model, Trade Potential, China, 16+1, Central and Eastern Europe, Agricultural trade, Food security |
| English key words: | Gravity Model, Trade Potential, China, 16+1, Central and Eastern Europe, Agricultural trade, Food security |
| Academic year of topic announcement: | 2016/2017 |
| Thesis type: | diploma thesis |
| Thesis language: | angličtina |
| Department: | Department of Political Science (23-KP) |
| Supervisor: | Ing. Vilém Semerák, M.A., Ph.D. |
| Author: | hidden - assigned by the advisor |
| Date of registration: | 14.06.2017 |
| Date of assignment: | 14.06.2017 |
| Date and time of defence: | 20.09.2018 00:00 |
| Venue of defence: | Jinonice |
| Date of electronic submission: | 26.07.2018 |
| Date of proceeded defence: | 20.09.2018 |
| Opponents: | doc. Ing. Vladimír Benáček, CSc. |
| URKUND check: | |
| Guidelines |
| According to the IEPS-FSV standards. |
| References |
| Anderson, James E.; van Wincoop, Eric. “Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle.” The American Economic Review 93 (1). 2003. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3132167
Brown, Lester. “Who will feed China?”. Worldwatch Institute. 1994. http://www2.lv.psu.edu/jxm57/explore/china2011/pdfs/Who%20will%20feed%20China.pdf Casarini, Nicola. “A New Era for EU-China Relations?” Foreign Affairs. 06 06 2017. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2017-06-06/new-era-eu-china-relations?cid=int-rec&pgtype=art (accessed 06 10, 2017). Egger, Peter. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials" Blackwell Publishers. 2002. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/47b2/de11eb3338b70970e79d230fd885d7c9cc6a.pdf Elteto, Andrea, and Agnes Szunomar. "Chinese Investment and Trade - Strengthening Ties with Central and Eastern Europe." International Journal of Business and Management, 2016: 24-48. Garlick, Jeremy. "China's Trade with Central and Eastern European EU Members: An Analysis of Eurostat Data 2004-2014." ACTA OECONOMICA PRAGENSIA, 2015: 3-22. Herrero, Alicia Garcia, and Jianwei Xu. “China's Belt and Road initiative: can Europe expect trade gains?” Bruegel, Working Paper, Issue 5. 2016. Jakobowski, Jakub. "A partial success of trade cooperation within the ‘16+1’ formula: the case of food exports to China." OSW Commentary 189 (189). 2015. https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2015-10-29/a-partial-success-trade-cooperation-within-161-formula-case Liu, Zuokui. "The Role of Central and Eastern Europe in the Building of Silk Road Economic Belt". China-CEEC Think Tanks Network. 2016. http://16plus1-thinktank.com/1/20160111/1096.html Macaes, Bruno. “China’s Belt and Road: Destination Europe.” Carnegie Europe. 09 11 2016. http://carnegieeurope.eu/2016/11/09/china-s-belt-and-road-destination-europe-pub-65075 (accessed 06 10, 2017). Meunier, Sophie. "Political impact of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in the European Union on Transatlatic Relation ." European Parliament Briefing Paper. 05 04, 2012. https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/meunier_final_0.pdf (accessed 06 10, 2017). NDRC. “Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.” National Development and Reform Commission. 28 03 2015. http://en.ndrc.gov.cn/newsrelease/201503/t20150330_669367.html (accessed 06 06, 2017). Pepe, Jacopo Maria. “China’s Inroads into Central, Eastern, .” DGAP. 03 2017. https://dgap.org/en/article/getFullPDF/29245 (accessed 06 10, 2017). Shepherd, Ben. "The Gravity Model of International Trade: A User Guide." UNESCAP, 2016. Stanzel, Angel, and et al. "China's Investment in Influence: The Future of 16+1 Cooperation." ECFR/199, 2016. Yu, Hong. “Motivation behind China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’.” Journal of Contemporary China, 26:105, 353-368. 01 11 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2016.1245894. Yu, Chunyan; Qi, Chunjie (2015): Research on the Complementarity and Comparative Advantages of Agricultural Product Trade between China and CEE - Taking Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Bulgaria as Examples. JSSM 08 (02), S. 201–208. DOI.org/10.4236/jssm.2015.82022. |
| Preliminary scope of work |
| Topic characteristics / Research Question(s):
One fifth of the world’s population is living in China, however, only one tenth of the arable land is located there and the area of arable land is decreasing. This means, that without technological innovation, China cannot provide enough food for its own population and is therefore dependent on imports. In the following thesis it will be argued that Central and Eastern European Countries can be a potential source for agricultural imports for China. The goal of the paper is to analyze the trade in agricultural commodities between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) and to determine the potential trade for the CEEC and China following the introduction of the 16+1 framework and OBOR initiative. The 16+1 format was firstly introduced in 2012 to maintain and deepen the relations between 16 EU members and non-EU members in the CEE region. Therefore, the following questions arise: will the Chinese-led cooperation with CEEC create new trade opportunities for CEEC and China? Will CEEC become a potential new source for China in regard of securing the food issue by increasing imports from CEEC? To answer these questions, the importance of the food security issue in China will be examined. To ensure further understanding, the One Belt One Road initiative (OBOR) and the 16+1 framework will be introduced, and role of agriculture will be highlighted. The last part of the literature review introduces the Gravity Model of International Trade, which is the methodology that will be used to analyze the trade potential. In the next chapter, the development of CEE-China trade relations will be analyzed with a focus on agriculture. Hereby the Trade Complementarity Index and the Revealed Comparative Advantages Index will be presented and calculated. The third chapter, Methodology, focuses on the application of the gravity model. The gravity model will be estimated and analyzed and based on the best estimator the trade potential will be calculated. Following that, the overall results will be discussed, and the previous stated questions answered. Working hypotheses: 1. CEEC have revealed comparative advantages in the agricultural sector in comparison with China. 2. The membership of both countries in the 16+1 framework has a significant positive effect on agricultural trade. 3. The actual agricultural trade between CEEC and China is below the potential trade, therefore there are opportunities to increase trade. Methodology: The literature review will give an overview about the development of the relations between CEE and China and will look deeper at the Chinese led initiatives, such as the 16+1 framework and OBOR, as well as the food security issue. The goals, structure, possible progress and challenges of these initiatives will be examined as well as the role of CEE within it. Therefore, official documents issued by the governments will be used, as well as other publications such as research papers, journals etc. In the next chapter, the trade flows between the CEE and China will be analysed and indices such as the revealed comparative advantages and trade complementarity index will be calculated. Following that, the gravity model of international trade will be estimated. With the help of the gravity model it will be possible to see what factors determine the agricultural trade and to calculate the trade potential for CEEC and China. Therefore, common databases will be used such as UN Comtrade Database, Eurostat, World Bank etc. To receive information about the distance between two countries the database from CEPII will be used. Keywords: Gravity Model, Trade Potential, China, 16+1, Central and Eastern Europe, Agricultural trade, Food security Outline: 1. Introduction 2. Literature review 2.1 One Belt One Road Initiative 2.2. Food Security Issue 2.3. Gravity Model of International Trade 3. Agricultural trade between CEE and China 3.1. Descriptive trade statistics 3.2. Trade Analysis 3.2.1. Revealed Comparative Advantages 3.2.2. Trade Complementarity Index 4. Data and Methodology 4.1. Data 4.2. Methodology 4.3. Estimation results 4.4. Trade potential 5. Conclusion 6. References |
| Preliminary scope of work in English |
| Topic characteristics / Research Question(s):
One fifth of the world’s population is living in China, however, only one tenth of the arable land is located there and the area of arable land is decreasing. This means, that without technological innovation, China cannot provide enough food for its own population and is therefore dependent on imports. In the following thesis it will be argued that Central and Eastern European Countries can be a potential source for agricultural imports for China. The goal of the paper is to analyze the trade in agricultural commodities between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) and to determine the potential trade for the CEEC and China following the introduction of the 16+1 framework and OBOR initiative. The 16+1 format was firstly introduced in 2012 to maintain and deepen the relations between 16 EU members and non-EU members in the CEE region. Therefore, the following questions arise: will the Chinese-led cooperation with CEEC create new trade opportunities for CEEC and China? Will CEEC become a potential new source for China in regard of securing the food issue by increasing imports from CEEC? To answer these questions, the importance of the food security issue in China will be examined. To ensure further understanding, the One Belt One Road initiative (OBOR) and the 16+1 framework will be introduced, and role of agriculture will be highlighted. The last part of the literature review introduces the Gravity Model of International Trade, which is the methodology that will be used to analyze the trade potential. In the next chapter, the development of CEE-China trade relations will be analyzed with a focus on agriculture. Hereby the Trade Complementarity Index and the Revealed Comparative Advantages Index will be presented and calculated. The third chapter, Methodology, focuses on the application of the gravity model. The gravity model will be estimated and analyzed and based on the best estimator the trade potential will be calculated. Following that, the overall results will be discussed, and the previous stated questions answered. Working hypotheses: 1. CEEC have revealed comparative advantages in the agricultural sector in comparison with China. 2. The membership of both countries in the 16+1 framework has a significant positive effect on agricultural trade. 3. The actual agricultural trade between CEEC and China is below the potential trade, therefore there are opportunities to increase trade. Methodology: The literature review will give an overview about the development of the relations between CEE and China and will look deeper at the Chinese led initiatives, such as the 16+1 framework and OBOR, as well as the food security issue. The goals, structure, possible progress and challenges of these initiatives will be examined as well as the role of CEE within it. Therefore, official documents issued by the governments will be used, as well as other publications such as research papers, journals etc. In the next chapter, the trade flows between the CEE and China will be analysed and indices such as the revealed comparative advantages and trade complementarity index will be calculated. Following that, the gravity model of international trade will be estimated. With the help of the gravity model it will be possible to see what factors determine the agricultural trade and to calculate the trade potential for CEEC and China. Therefore, common databases will be used such as UN Comtrade Database, Eurostat, World Bank etc. To receive information about the distance between two countries the database from CEPII will be used. Keywords: Gravity Model, Trade Potential, China, 16+1, Central and Eastern Europe, Agricultural trade, Food security Outline: 1. Introduction 2. Literature review 2.1 One Belt One Road Initiative 2.2. Food Security Issue 2.3. Gravity Model of International Trade 3. Agricultural trade between CEE and China 3.1. Descriptive trade statistics 3.2. Trade Analysis 3.2.1. Revealed Comparative Advantages 3.2.2. Trade Complementarity Index 4. Data and Methodology 4.1. Data 4.2. Methodology 4.3. Estimation results 4.4. Trade potential 5. Conclusion 6. References |