The impact of human capital and population age structure on economic growth

• Thesis title in Czech: Vliv lidského kapitálu a věkové struktury populace na ekonomický růst
• Thesis title in English: The impact of human capital and population age structure on economic growth
• Key words: demografická dividenda, demografický přechod, ekonomický růst, lidský kapitál, věková struktura populace
• English key words: demographic dividend, demographic transition, economic growth, human capital, population age structure
• Academic year of topic announcement: 2015/2016
• Thesis type: diploma thesis
• Thesis language: angličtina
• Department: Institute of Economic Studies (23-IES)
• Supervisor: PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D.
• Author: Mgr. Michal Topinka - assigned by the advisor
• Date of registration: 17.06.2016
• Date of assignment: 17.06.2016
• Date and time of defence: 18.09.2018 08:30
• Venue of defence: Opletalova - Opletalova 26, O105, Opletalova - místn. č. 105
• Date of electronic submission: 31.07.2018
• Date of proceeded defence: 18.09.2018
• Opponents: Mgr. Michal Paulus

Guidelines

Expected Contribution:

In this thesis I will apply econometric methods to thoroughly analyze the past data to see to what extent can the demographic trends explain the economic growths. Unlike most of the studies concerning the population aging and related, I will not attempt to forecast the future development using assumptions about the previous economic growth, but will instead analyze more thoroughly the past data. I hope that this will help to more precisely determine the real effects of the changes in the structure of the population. These observations can be then used in future research to help forecast the impact of the population aging on the economic growth, size of the governmental debt or other relevant factors.

Hypotheses:

1. Hypothesis #1: Do the changes in the average workforce influence the development and economic growth of European countries?
2. Hypothesis #2: To what extent is the increase in the median population age responsible for the increase of government debt of European countries?
3. Hypothesis #3: Do the countries with lower fertility rates and/or higher life expectancy grow more slowly than the countries with moderate values for these indicators?

References

Bloom, D., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. (2001). Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition. [online] NBER.

Doppelhofer, G., Miller, R. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (2003). Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach. [online] Ingentaconnect.com.

Fernandez, C., Ley, E. and Steel, M. (2001). Model uncertainty in cross- country growth regressions. [online] Wiley Online Library.

Honohan, P. and Walsh, B. (2002). Catching up with the Leaders: The Irish Hare on JSTOR. [online] Jstor.org.

Keynes, J. (1937). Some economic consequences of a declining population. [online]

Leon-Gonzalez, R. and Montolio, D. (2004). Growth, convergence and public investment. A Bayesian model averaging approach: Applied Economics: Vol 36, No 17. [online] Tandfonline.com.

Leon-Gonzalez, R. and Montolio, D. (2015). Endogeneity and panel data in growth regressions: A Bayesian model averaging approach. [online] Sciencedi- rect.com.

Levine, R. and Renelt, D. (1992). A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions on JSTOR. [online] Jstor.org.

Moral-Benito, E. (2010). Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach — Review of Economics and Statistics — MIT Press Journals. [online] Mitpressjournals.org.

Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997a). I Just Ran Four Million Regressions. [online] NBER.

Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997b). I Just Ran Two Million Regressions on JSTOR. [online] Jstor.org.

Preliminary scope of work in English

My aim in this thesis is to contribute to the extensive empirical literature on growth regressions by examining the significance of the share of working age population on long-term economic growth. The impact of increase in the proportion of this population group is well established in the literature, but has only partially been tested in the empirical growth context. The results indicate that the similarly defined variables are not very important, but I believe this could be caused by the different and perhaps improper definitions of the variations of this variable. I would therefore like to determine whether the previously proven impact of population at work can be proved using the BMA and whether it should be used in the future research. This is still a very active field and therefore my results and recommendations about the inclusion of this variable can influence the future research on this topic. Moreover, I believe it would be beneficial to use test for the inclusion of this variable using both cross-country regressions and dynamic panel data models, since the variations of this variable have only been introduced in the papers introducing new concepts. In case of positive results, this variable can be used in any future research, since it is publicly available for all the whole period used in current growth regressions.