Forecasting Ability of Confidence Indicators: Evidence for the Czech Republic

• Thesis title in Czech: Predikční schopnost indikátorů důvěry: Analýza pro Českou republiku
• Thesis title in English: Forecasting Ability of Confidence Indicators: Evidence for the Czech Republic
• Key words: indikátory důvěry, makroekonomické predikce, vektorová autoregrese, logistická regrese
• English key words: confidence indicators, macroeconomic forecasting, vector autoregression, logistic regression
• Academic year of topic announcement: 2010/2011
• Thesis type: diploma thesis
• Thesis language: angličtina
• Department: Institute of Economic Studies (23-IES)
• Supervisor: prof. Roman Horváth, Ph.D.
• Author: hidden - assigned by the advisor
• Date of registration: 09.06.2011
• Date of assignment: 09.06.2011
• Date and time of defence: 28.06.2012 00:00
• Venue of defence: Opletalova 26
• Date of electronic submission: 17.05.2012
• Date of proceeded defence: 28.06.2012
• Opponents: PhDr. Mgr. Jakub Mikolášek

References

1. Mourougane, A. and R. Moreno (2002): “Can Confidence Indicators be Useful to Predict Short Term Real GDP Growth?” ECB Working Paper No. 133

2. Taylor, K. and R. McNabb (2007): “Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe.“ Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69: pp. 185-208

3. Havránek, T., R. Horváth and J. Matějů. “Monetary Transmission Mechanism and the Financial Sector in the Czech Republic“. Economic Change and Restructuring, in print

4. Santero, T. and N. Westerlund (1996), “Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 170, OECD Publishing.

5. Černý A. and E. Kočenda (2007). “Elements of Time Series Econometrics: An Applied Approach.” Karolinum Press – Prague.

Preliminary scope of work

Naše očekávání a důvěra v budoucnost jsou ovlivněny znalostí našich vlastních vyhlídek. V této práci budeme zkoumat, jestli by tato informace mohla být zachycena indikátory důvěry a použita na agregátní úrovni pro modelování ekonomického vývoje. Budeme analyzovat, zda indikátory důvěry mohou zlepšit predikční schopnost empirického modelu růstu HDP v České republice.

Preliminary scope of work in English

Our expectations and confidence about the future are influenced by the knowledge of our personal prospects. This thesis will examine whether this information could be captured by indicators of confidence and used on the aggregate level for empirical models of real economic development. Furthermore we will analyse whether confidence indicators can enhance the forecasting power of the empirical model of the GDP growth in the Czech Republic.