Does Monetary Policy Uncertainty Impact Corporate Innovation? The Case of China
| Název práce v češtině: | Ovlivňuje nejistota měnové politiky podnikové inovace? Případ Číny |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | Does Monetary Policy Uncertainty Impact Corporate Innovation? The Case of China |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2020/2021 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | doc. PhDr. Adam Geršl, Ph.D. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 30.06.2021 |
| Datum zadání: | 30.06.2021 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 21.06.2023 09:00 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Opletalova, O109, AULA Michala Mejstříka č. 109 |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 28.04.2023 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 21.06.2023 |
| Oponenti: | doc. PhDr. Ing. et Ing. Petr Jakubík, Ph.D., Ph.D. |
| Zásady pro vypracování |
| The impact of monetary policy on the economy and the behavior of economic agents has always been a hot topic in academic circles. Within the research on firms’ behavior, the relationship between monetary policy and corporate investment has attracted a lot of attention. The theory of monetary policy transmission assumes that monetary policy will affect corporate behavior through interest rate, credit, exchange rate, and risk-taking channels, which all impact corporate investment (Yu Ze, Lu Yizhou, Wang Wenda,2015). However, less is known about the impact on innovations, which do often correlate with investment but not always. The existing literature mainly studies the influencing factors of R&D investment from the external policy environment of the company and the company's own characteristics. Regarding the research on the impact of the external policy environment on the R&D investment of enterprises, no consensus has been reached yet. Guo Hua (2016) found that as the degree of policy uncertainty increases, companies will reduce R&D investment, and the level of bank credit strengthens the motivation of companies to invest in R&D. Another part of the research has reached the opposite conclusion. Gu Qun(2020) shows that increasing policy uncertainty will encourage companies to invest in R&D. At present, Chinese economy is facing downward pressure, and the core factor for potential economic growth rate in the future depends on whether breakthroughs can be achieved in key core technological innovation areas. More research is needed on how macroeconomic policy conduct can influence Chinese firms’ innovations and to what extent it can support the positive spillover effects of the supply chains. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| [1] Caldara，D.，C. Fuentesalbero，S. Gilchrist， and E. Zakrajsek. The Macroeconomic Impact of
Financial and Uncertainty Shocks[J]. European Economic Review, 2016(88):185-207. [2] Julio, B.，and Y. Yook. Policy Uncertainty，Irreversibility，and Cross-border Flows of Capital [J]. Journal of International Economics, 2016,(10)3:13-26. [3] Gulen H, Ion M. Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment[J]. Review of Financial Studies, 2016, 29(3): 523-564. [4] Li Fengyu, Yang Mozhu. Will economic policy uncertainty inhibit corporate investment?——An empirical study based on China’s economic policy uncertainty index[J]. Financial Research. 2015(04): 115-129. [5] Rao Pingui, Yue Heng, Jiang Guohua. Research on the Uncertainty of Economic Policy and Enterprise Investment Behavior [J]. World Economy, 2017, 40(02): 27-51. [6] Gu Xiaming, Chen Yongmin, Pan Shiyuan. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Innovation: An Empirical Analysis Based on Listed Companies in my country [J]. Economic Research, 2018, 53(02): 109-123. [7] Xie Qiaoxin. Monetary Policy Regulation, Labor Cost Stickiness and Enterprise Innovation Investment[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2018,38(19):47-53. [8] Yu Ze, Lu Yizhou, Wang Wenda. Monetary policy execution mode, financial mismatch and investment constraints of Chinese enterprises [J]. Management World, 2015(09): 52-64 [9] Gu Qun, Wang Wenwen, Li Min. Economic policy uncertainty, institutional investor holdings and corporate R&D investment: based on the perspective of R&D heterogeneity [J]. Soft Science, 20202): 21-26. [10] Guo Hua, Wang Cheng, Li Houjian. Policy uncertainty, bank credit and corporate R&D investment [J]. Macroeconomic Research, 2016 (2): 89-105+112. |
| Předběžná náplň práce |
| Hypotheses:
1. The uncertainty of monetary policy negatively affects the R&D investment and the number of patent applications of listed companies, that is, the uncertainty of monetary policy has an inhibitory effect on innovation. 2. The increase in monetary policy uncertainty will pass through financing constraint channels and risk-bearing capacity channels affect corporate R&D investment. 3. The uncertainty of monetary policy has a negative impact on corporate innovation by impacting earnings. Methodology: The main sources of data used in this article are as follows: First, data related to China's monetary policy, from the CEICS database and China Economic Net statistical database; second, corporate innovation data, corporate patents and innovation data from China Innovation Patent Research Data (CIRD). The third is corporate financial data data, which come from the Guotaian CSMAR database. I plan to estimate three models capturing the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on innovations, financing constraints, and earnings. The explained variables are R&D investment and the number of patent applications, and the following model is constructed. To test the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate innovation Yi,t=a0+a1mupt-1+∑φXi,t-1+ηind+ηt+εi,t i represents the individual listed company, t represents the year, and Yi,t represents the R&D investment and the number of patent applications of the listed company i in year t, Xi, t-1 represents a series of control variables, including profitability, tangible asset ratio, company size, company age, Tobin's Q value, cash flow ratio, etc. ηt and ηind respectively represent the fixed effects at the year and industry level. 2. SAi,t-1=a0+a1mupt-1+∑φXi,t-1+ηind+ηt+εi,t Size is the total assets of the company in yuan, divided by 1,000,000 and then obtained by taking the logarithm. Age is the company's listing years. The SA index is a negative number, and the greater the absolute value of this value, the more severe the financing constraints the enterprise is subject to. 3. TAi,t/Ai,t-1=a0/Ai,t-1+a1/∆REVi,t -∆RECi, t/Ai,t-1+a2PPEi,t/Ai,t-1+εi,t TAi,t is the total accrued profit of company i in year t, Ai,t-1 is the total assets of company i at the end of year t-1, ∆REVi,t is the increase in operating income of company i in year t, ∆RECi, t is the increase in accounts receivable of company i in year t, and PPEi,t is the fixed assets of company i in year t. Expected Contribution: The thesis will contribute to the literature on the link between the uncertainty of monetary policy and corporate innovations and other factors related to the willingness and/or possibility to innovate, such as financing constraints and earnings. It will use firm-level data on listed Chinese firms. Most of the current relevant literature focuses on macroeconomic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation, but only a few contributions single out the monetary policy uncertainty out of the general macroeconomic policy uncertainty. Outline: 1. Introduction 2. Research Summary 2.1 Research on the Uncertainty of Macroeconomic Policy 2.2 Research on External Factors Affecting Enterprise Innovation 3. The mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate innovation:3 Hypotheses 4. The construction of the model of the influence of the uncertainty of monetary policy on enterprise innovation 4.1 Sample processing and data sources 4.2 Model and variable description 5. Empirical analysis 5.1 Empirical results: benchmark regression and mechanism test 5.2 Robustness test 6. Conclusions and policy recommendations |