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Evaluating the Euro's Impact on Slovak Trade: An Empirical Analysis
Název práce v češtině: Vyhodnocení dopadu Eura na slovenský zahraniční obchod: empirická analýza
Název v anglickém jazyce: Evaluating the Euro's Impact on Slovak Trade: An Empirical Analysis
Klíčová slova: mezinárodní obchod, gravitační model, efekt eura, Slovensko, evropská integrace, měnové unie, PPML, vývoz
Klíčová slova anglicky: international trade, gravity model, Euro effect, Slovakia, European integration, monetary unions, PPML, exports
Akademický rok vypsání: 2023/2024
Typ práce: bakalářská práce
Jazyk práce: angličtina
Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
Vedoucí / školitel: Ing. Vilém Semerák, M.A., Ph.D.
Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
Datum přihlášení: 03.10.2023
Datum zadání: 03.10.2023
Datum a čas obhajoby: 06.06.2024 07:00
Místo konání obhajoby: Areál Jinonice, C520, 520, seminární místnost IPS
Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby:30.04.2024
Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 06.06.2024
Oponenti: PhDr. Jiří Schwarz, Ph.D.
 
 
 
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Předběžná náplň práce
Tato bakalářská práce využívá gravitační model mezinárodního obchodu ke zkoumání vlivu eura na mezinárodní obchodní toky Slovenska. Jejím cílem je posoudit, zda bylo euro 15 let po vstupu Slovenska do eurozóny pro jeho obchod přínosem. Použitím Poissonovy metody pseudomaximální věrohodnosti (PPML) k řešení problému nulových toků a heteroskedasticity tato práce zajišťuje přesnost a spolehlivost své analýzy. Tato studie bude pracovat s panelovými daty z let 1995 až 2021 pro všechny bilaterální obchodní vztahy a následně se zaměří pouze na vývoz automobilového průmyslu. Hlavní zjištění nenaznačují žádný statisticky významný okamžitý vliv eura na slovenský obchod. Ačkoli tyto výsledky naznačují, že Slovensko není výjimkou ze zjištění nedávné odborné literatury, která naznačují zanedbatelné účinky eura, tato práce přesto odhaluje několik příznivých výsledků. Slovensko vykazuje pozitivnější výsledky než ostatní země a uvádí statisticky významný a pozitivní čtyřletý a následný opožděný efekt, pozitivní vliv na vývoz benzinových vozidel a na neposledním místě Euro podle všeho neodklání slovenský obchod.
Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce
This thesis uses a gravity model of trade to examine the effect of the Euro on international Slovak trade flows. It aims to assess whether the Euro has been beneficial for Slovak trade 15 years after its entry into the Eurozone. Using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method to address the issue of zero flows and heteroskedasticity, this thesis ensures precision and robustness in its analysis. It will work with panel data from 1995 to 2021 for all bilateral trade relations and then focus solely on the exports of the automotive sector. The main findings indicate no statistically significant immediate effect of the Euro on Slovak trade. Although these results suggest that Slovakia is no exception to the findings of recent literature by suggesting negligible effects of the Euro, this thesis still reveals some favorable results. Slovakia displays more positive results than the rest and reports a statistically significant and positive 4-year and subsequent delayed effect, a positive effect on the exports of petrol vehicles, and lastly, the Euro does not seem to have trade diverting effects for Slovakia.
 
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