Reaccessing Irish neutrality in the context of the Russian Attack against Ukraine
| Název práce v češtině: | Irská neutralita v kontextu ruské agrese na Ukrajině |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | Reaccessing Irish neutrality in the context of the Russian Attack against Ukraine |
| Klíčová slova: | Irsko, neutralita, Ukrajina, válka, obrana, politika |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | Ireland, neutrality, Ukraine, war, defence, policy |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2022/2023 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Katedra politologie (23-KP) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | doc. Martin Riegl, Ph.D. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 22.09.2023 |
| Datum zadání: | 22.09.2023 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 19.09.2024 09:00 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Areál Jinonice, C520, 520, seminární místnost IPS |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 30.07.2024 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 19.09.2024 |
| Oponenti: | RNDr. Jan Kofroň, Ph.D. |
| Zásady pro vypracování |
| Topic Characteristics:
In light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many European countries have been forced to re-evaluate their foreign policies. Increased geopolitical tension and the return of war to Europe has led many states to increase their military capabilities and reacess their alliances toward collective secuirty inititatives. Countries such as Finland have abandoned their policy of neutrality in favour of joining NATO. European states participation in EU defense projects such as CSDP (Common Security and Defence Policy) and PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation), has risen substantially following the initial outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war back in 2014. The return of great-power competition has meant that the concept of neutrality, has become an increasingly significant factor in state’s foreign policy, particularly in Ireland. The concept of neutrality is a hot topic of debate in both public and politial spheres in Ireland since February 2022. Many advocate for the protection of Irish neutrality, a result of what many percieve to be the slow erosion of Irish neutrality through increased participation in EU and UN collective security agreements over the years. Others however, push for greater Irish integration into defensive organisations such as NATO, and suggest that Irish non-allignment should be left in the past. Such a debate has proven to be quite controversial, due to Ireland’s longstanding tradition of neutrality. Due to this tradition of non-alignment, Ireland is gifted with a unique place in the international system, one that other small states do not have, giving it greater diplomatic power. It is this tradition which ultimately allows for the state to carve out its own path in the world, independent of input from great powers. Despite upholding a policy of non-allignement for just over a century, there have been many instances in which Ireland’s neutrality has been endangered, including WWII and the US invasion of Aghanistan in 2001, where Ireland maintained “certain consideration“, for its economic allies. As we will see, Irish politicans over the years have weaponised neutrality, in order to achieve goals and further Ireland’s international standing. Many Irish statemen have used the concept of neutrality ‘as a means to an end‘, rather than an end goal itself. For example, Irish neutrality has been used as a tool to avoid the 1918 Conscription Crisis, gain Irish independence, and end partition, with vaying degrees of success. However, if neutrality proves to be a hinderance to the country in the face of a rapidly changing global landscape, it is quite possible that Ireland may change its stance. Therefore, this thesis titled "Reassessing Irish Neutrality Following the Russia Invasion of Ukraine" will explore the intricate and evolving dynamics of Irish neutrality against the backdrop of a return to war in Europe. Firstly, this thesis will examine the different types of neutrality, its root causes, the history of Irish neutrality and the pro’s and con’s of being a neutral nation. Additionally, Ireland’s role in international organizations and collective security projects will be discussed, as well as the impact these have on Irish neutrality. This thesis will evaluate how Ireland have responded to the Ukrainian crisis regarding security both at home and abroad. The crisis has led to increased demands for Ireland to increase its military capabilities to defend, against Russian hybrid attacks, particularly cyberattacks. Ireland’s defensive actions taken in light of increased hybrid warfare will be examined in order to prove whether or not the country can defend its neutrality independently. Through a comprehensive examination of these factors, this study aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities confronting Irish neutrality in a post-Ukraine invasion world. By the end of the thesis, I hope to be able to determine whether or not Ireland’s stance on neutrality should evolve with increased geopolitical tension, and decipher what Ireland‘s role, and that of similar small neutral states is, in an international system where Great-Power rivalry promotes polarising collective security arrangements. Ideally, this study will further contribute to the broader discourse on the relevance and effectiveness of neutrality in contemporary international affairs. Research Question: Is the abandonment of Irish neutrality likely in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and would it subsequently lead to NATO membership? Hypotheses: 1. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a paradigm shift of the strategic environment, leading to a revitalised need for Ireland to reassess it‘s policy of neutrality and reevaluate the country's relationship with NATO. 2. Regardless of whether the stance on neutrality changes, Ireland needs to invest more in its defence in order to protect our own security interests and decrease reliance on the US and UK. Methodology: Theoretical approach through a neorealist perspective. 1. Literature Review: Conduct an extensive literature review to understand the existing knowledge and research on Irish neutrality and its history, CSDP/PESCO involvement, and the Ukraine crisis. 2. Data Collection: Primary Sources: Government documents, speeches, and statements related to Irish foreign policy and neutrality: I. White Paper on Defence 2019 II. Future of Irish Neutrality Paper 2019 III. Consultative Forum June 2023 IV. JFK speech on Future of Irish Foreign relations 1963. Secondary Sources: JSTOR, ProQuest, and Factiva academic articles: I. Irish Neutrality in Theoretical and Comparative Perspective II. A Comparative Critique of the Practice of Irish Neutrality in the 'Unneutral' Discourse III. The Myth of 'The Myth of Irish Neutrality': Deconstructing Concepts of Irish Neutrality using International Relations Theories IV. Irish Neutrality: An Historical Review Documents on Irish Foreign Policy (DIFP) database - https://www.difp.ie/ - Search keyword ‘Neutrality‘ E.g. Documents on Irish Foreign Policy XIII (1965-69) 3. Comparative Analysis: Compare Ireland's response to the Ukraine crisis with that of other neutral states Finland, Sweden, and Austria. Analyze their policy decisions, statements, and contributions to EU defense initiatives (e.g., PESCO). Examine and compare their contributions to aiding Ukraine in the war effort across economic, military, and polictical variables : I. Economic (sanctions against Russia, trade deals with Ukraine) II. Military (Sending military and non-military equipment to Ukraine, engagement in training missions, etc.), III. Political (Diplomatic support for Ukraine, condemnation of Russian actions, civic protests, removal of Russian envoys, etc.) Discuss how Finnish Swedish and Austrian relations with NATO have changed following the outbreak of the Russia/ Ukraine War and how that compares with developments (or lack thereof) of Irish – NATO relations. Employ a comparative framework to evaluate and contrast the policies and responses of Ireland, Finland, Sweden, and Austria by considering factors such as historical neutrality traditions, geopolitical positioning, and levels of EU defense cooperation 4. Data Analysis: Organize and categorize collected data, highlighting key themes, trends, and policy shifts related to Irish neutrality and the Ukraine crisis. . 5. Conclusion and Implications: Draw conclusions from analysis and discuss the implications of the Ukraine crisis on Irish neutrality. Reflect on whether there have been any significant changes in policy or discourse. 6. Policy reccomendation: Suggest a policy that will saffeguard Irish neutrality through an increasingly militarised world. Key stakeholders in Irish foreign policy: neutrality. I. Government officials: Assess their roles, positions, and influence on Irish Micheál Martin - Tánaiste, Minister for Foreign Affairs, and Minister for Defence. a. Leo Varadkar – Taoiseach (Prime Minister) b. Richard Boyd Barrett TD II. Political parties: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Sinn Fein III. Non-governmental organizations: Irish Neutrality League IV. Triple lock System: Sets out the conditions under which the Defence Forces may participate in overseas peace support operations; operation must be mandated by the United Nations; it must be approved by the Government: and thirdly it must be approved by Dáil Éireann, by means of a resolution. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| • IS IRELAND NEUTRAL by Conor Gallagher 2023
• A History of Ireland in International Relations, Eoin McGee 2020 • Ireland, Europe and the World: Writings on a New Century, Dan O’Brian, 2009 • Ireland, neutrality, and European security integration - R Doherty – 2017 • Ambiguous alliance: Neutrality, opt-outs, and European defence Clara Sophie Cramer, Ulrike Franke • ‘ Neutrality: A really dead concept?' A reprise. Christine Agius, Karen Devine • The Myth of 'The Myth of Irish Neutrality': Deconstructing Concepts of Irish Neutrality using International Relations Theories - Karen M. Devine • A Comparative Critique of the Practice of Irish Neutrality in the 'Unneutral' Discourse, Karen Devine, Irish Studies in International Affairs, • Stretching the IR theoretical spectrum on Irish neutrality: A critical social constructivist framework. K Devine |
| Předběžná náplň práce |
| 1. Introduction:
a. Introduce the concept of neutrality, and the many different types of neutrality. b. History and origins of Irish neutrality c. Analysis of key geopolitical moments throughout the last century in which Ireland upheld/ rejected its neutral stance – ambigous nature of neutrality. d. Analysing Ireland’s use of neutrality as a means to an end/ diplomatic tool. e. Introduce Research question(s) – frame reassement. 2. Reaccessing Irish neutrality in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: a. Overview of the Russian attack against Ukraine and its impact on the geopolitical landscape. b. Russian hybrid attacks against Ireland (HSE cyberattacks, Russian Naval presence off the Irish coast above transatlantic data cables). c. Analysis of the Irish response to the crisis (Possible breaches of neutrality?). d. Evaluation of the effectiveness of Irish neutrality in dealing with the crisis. e. Changes in attitudes towards neutrality and defence following Russia/ Ukraine war 3. Case Studies – Analyse other neutral nations move towards collective security following the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and compare with Ireland: a. Finland joining NATO b. Sweden’s ratification to join NATO c. Austria’s unchanged position as non-NATO member 4. Reassessing Irish neutrality and security in an international system that continuously embraces defensive regionalism: – Quantify to the extent that this is true? a. Evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of maintaining neutrality in today’s international order. b. Alternatives to neutrality and their implications for Irish foreign policy c. The role of international organizations and alliances in shaping Irish foreign policy – EU/UN etc. (Ireland and collective security arrangements). d. Analyse the impact that Great-power rivalry, and subsequent collective defence arrangements have, on smaller states. e. Analyse the current state of Irish defence and its ability to defend its neutrality against evolving hybrid warfare in the 21st century. 5. Conclusions: a. Summarise Ireland’s stance in the world today b. Is Ireland really neutral? Was it ever? (Answer) c. Should Ireland continue maintain its stance on neutrality, or abandon it entirely? (Answer) d. Is “true“ neutrality even possible in an increasingly integrated and militarised world? (Answer). 6. References / Bibliography 7. Annexes |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| 1. Introduction:
a. Introduce the concept of neutrality, and the many different types of neutrality. b. History and origins of Irish neutrality c. Analysis of key geopolitical moments throughout the last century in which Ireland upheld/ rejected its neutral stance – ambigous nature of neutrality. d. Analysing Ireland’s use of neutrality as a means to an end/ diplomatic tool. e. Introduce Research question(s) – frame reassement. 2. Reaccessing Irish neutrality in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: a. Overview of the Russian attack against Ukraine and its impact on the geopolitical landscape. b. Russian hybrid attacks against Ireland (HSE cyberattacks, Russian Naval presence off the Irish coast above transatlantic data cables). c. Analysis of the Irish response to the crisis (Possible breaches of neutrality?). d. Evaluation of the effectiveness of Irish neutrality in dealing with the crisis. e. Changes in attitudes towards neutrality and defence following Russia/ Ukraine war 3. Case Studies – Analyse other neutral nations move towards collective security following the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and compare with Ireland: a. Finland joining NATO b. Sweden’s ratification to join NATO c. Austria’s unchanged position as non-NATO member 4. Reassessing Irish neutrality and security in an international system that continuously embraces defensive regionalism: – Quantify to the extent that this is true? a. Evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of maintaining neutrality in today’s international order. b. Alternatives to neutrality and their implications for Irish foreign policy c. The role of international organizations and alliances in shaping Irish foreign policy – EU/UN etc. (Ireland and collective security arrangements). d. Analyse the impact that Great-power rivalry, and subsequent collective defence arrangements have, on smaller states. e. Analyse the current state of Irish defence and its ability to defend its neutrality against evolving hybrid warfare in the 21st century. 5. Conclusions: a. Summarise Ireland’s stance in the world today b. Is Ireland really neutral? Was it ever? (Answer) c. Should Ireland continue maintain its stance on neutrality, or abandon it entirely? (Answer) d. Is “true“ neutrality even possible in an increasingly integrated and militarised world? (Answer). 6. References / Bibliography 7. Annexes |